Fantasy Football

Upon first glance, there is plenty to appreciate about the Derrius Guice profile. At 5-11 and 224-pounds, he’s a formidable force on the field. Though he didn’t participate in burst or agility drills at the 2018 NFL Combine, he registered a 4.49 (80th-percentile among qualified running backs) 40-Yard Dash, giving him a 110.2 (91st-percentile) Speed Score. His Best Comparable Player? Oh, it’s just Ezekiel Elliott.

The injuries Guice has sustained through the first two years of his NFL career leave many wondering if he can stay on the field. However, modern medicine is rapidly improving, and an ACL injury isn’t the death knell it once was. Rehabilitation processes are evolving to provide optimal recovery. At age 23, Guice also has youth on his side. Should he stay true to his rehab program, he’ll have the chance to prove his injuries were mere fluke, not a sign of things to come.

After being groomed to take over for Greg Olsen for the last two years, Ian Thomas is set to become Carolina’s starting tight end and nobody seems to care. Though his career efficiency metrics have not been impressive, he has produced TE1 fantasy performances when Olsen has missed time. Unlike our other LRTE Roulette candidates, Thomas has multiple games with a Snap Share above 90-percent on his pro resume, including his lone TE1 outing last year.

Without Gerald Everett being injured, Tyler Higbee wouldn’t have put up 31-percent of his career yardage in a five-week span with top-tier matchups. That Everett managed to record a 50.2-percent (No. 28 among qualified tight ends) Route Participation mark in 12 games played compared to Higbee’s 45.4-percent (No. 33) mark in 14 games played tells us all we need to know about who the better player is when both are healthy.

The Cardinals did not add a wide receiver in the 2020 NFL Draft. In fact, head coach Kliff Kingsbury gave his second-year WRs a vote of confidence post-draft. Andy Isabella owns the fastest 40-time of the current group. Since Damiere Byrd departed for the New England Patriots in free agency, there are no other notable speedsters in the receiver room. Chrisitan Kirk is the next fastest with 4.47 wheels. If a speed element is wanted in Kingbury’s offense, Isabella is the answer.

With a current FFPC ADP of 320.45 and falling, the time to acquire Isabella is now. At this point, fantasy gamers are drafting the likes of Devin Funchess and Danny Amendola well ahead of him. His value is way too low given his prospect profile. He’s a low-risk, end-of-bench stash in redraft and a solid upside play in Best Ball. In dynasty leagues, he’s the perfect player to acquire as a throw-in to a deal. Just find a way to get him on the taxi squad or end of the bench.

James Conner went down with the entire offensive ship in Pittsburgh when Ben Roethlisberger went down to injury. Mike Tomlin has already come out this offseason stating his belief in a workhorse running back approach, confirming that if Conner stays healthy he can finish as a top tier fantasy back. If he reaches similar opportunity totals to what he saw in 2018, we’ve already seen what he can do when he finished with 21.2 (No. 7 among qualified running backs) Fantasy Points per Game.

Chris Carson is an underrated athlete with a 127.9 (87th-percentile) Burst Score and a 120.8 (77th-percentile) SPARQ-x score. While many believed he was more of a plodder, he proved last year that his 2018 metrics were not flukey. He posted a 4.7-percent (No. 17) Breakaway Run Rate, 85 (No. 6) Evaded Tackles, and a 27.0-percent (No. 15) Juke Rate. This behind a worse offensive line that put up a 63.8 (No. 46) Run Blocking Efficiency grade.

With the draft day trade to Miami, Matt Breida saw an instant boost in fantasy value. Instead of fighting for scraps in a crowded 49ers backfield, he’s now in line for significant touches on a thin depth chart. The Dolphins are an ascending offense with talented playmakers and they added four offensive linemen in the draft. His explosiveness and pass-catching ability makes him the back to target in Miami.

Every Arizona lead running back during the 2019 season put up significant fantasy performances, combining for nine top-12 weeks between them. Fantasy drafters are selecting Chase Edmonds at his floor with an ADP outside the top-50 RBs. His ceiling is not factored into his price, making him a fantastic target in the double-digit rounds. Edmonds is a league-winner if anything happens to Kenyan Drake.

Last season, Derrick Henry scored 18 touchdowns for the Titans while leading all qualified running backs with 303 carries and 1,539 rushing yards. PlayerProfiler’s Data Analysis Tool calculates Expected Touchdowns for running backs and Henry had a 7.60 touchdown difference (10.4 expected). A non-factor in the passing game with 25 (No. 49) targets, Henry’s touchdown regression will make it difficult to return value on his first-round ADP.

Leonard Fournette’s 0.90-percent Touchdown Rate is unbelievable for a running back that had 265 (No. 7) carries and 316 (No. 2) Weighted Opportunities. While Derrick Henry lead running backs with 7.60 touchdowns over expectation, Fournette’s 9.40 touchdowns below expected was dead last for running backs. Sure, he won’t see 100 targets in the 2020 season, but the positive regression in the touchdown category will more than make up for the decrease in the receiving game. 

It’s in the U.S. Constitution that Jarvis Landry must receive 120 targets every single NFL season. It’s true — look it up. Landry, who racked up more fantasy points last season than all but 11 wideouts, is once again being overlooked in redraft. He’s something close to a must-draft for those who hammer running back early and often.

Sure, Tyler Boyd won’t see 148 garbage targets like he did in 2019, assuming A.J. Green can remain upright for most or all of the 2020 season. Still, he should easily eclipse 100 targets and could prove the above projection overly-conservative if the Bengals let it rip this year and end up among the pass-heaviest teams in the league.

The Indianapolis Colts will play the NFC North, the AFC North, the Jets, the Raiders, and their own division twice. That list includes mostly run-first teams with erratic quarterback play resulting in a more conservative offensive game plan; i.e. low scoring and high-turnover opponents. Their own division is up for grabs and arguably among the easier divisions in football.

The Colts’ offseason moves indicate that this team plans to win games utilizing the running game and their elite offensive line. Based on their talent and schedule, they easily can be a top defense. Their affordable ADP in fantasy drafts makes them the ideal target in redraft and best ball leagues. Don’t overpay for last years rankings, go buy this years defensive league winner.

Kareem Hunt’s ceiling is the highest of any of the Zero RB targets. If Nick Chubb goes down, Hunt slides into a massive Opportunity Share. He would have the Cleveland backfield to himself, absorbing all the carries, receptions, and touchdowns. He would instantly become a top-five fantasy running back. We don’t even have to assume that he can do it, we’ve seen it from him already.

Phillip Lindsay is explosive in the passing game. He struggled with drops in 2019, but he caught 35 passes in each of his first two pro seasons and held a 14.6-percent (93rd-percentile among qualified running backs) College Target Share in college. He has shown enough to believe he will still hold a fair share of the Broncos backfield work. If Melvin Gordon gets injured or proves ineffective, we already know Lindsay can step into that RB1 role and thrive.

There are many data points on the JaMycal Hasty profile that make him a worthwhile stash. The big knock on him is his 12.8-percent (13th-percentile among qualified running backs) College Dominator Rating. He played four seasons of college ball but peaked at second in rushing yardage on his own team. He has an intriguing skillset for a UDFA, but the incoming price correction from fantasy players overreacting to the Raheem Mostert news could make him a chalk-fade within weeks.

Jeff Wilson’s athleticism doesn’t immediately rule him out of fantasy viability, but it certainly puts him at a disadvantage. He did not record a single athletic measurable that was above average when testing. Unlike JaMycal Hasty, what Wilson lacks in athleticism he makes up for with actual production. He also has reps in the most valuable role in modern football: the goal line back. He recorded 2.3 red zone carries per game in San Francisco’s first seven games last year.