Fantasy Football

Although Antonio Gibson didn’t get many carries in college, made it count when he did, with an insane 11.2 (99th-percentile among qualified running backs) College YPC average. He ran a 4.39 (98th-percentile) 40-yard Dash, which outputted a 99th-percentile Speed Score. He was hitting the holes, making guys miss left and right, and popping off for breakaway runs. That’s why I hopped on the train.

Investing in any position well past the age apex is usually a dart throw. Regression and injuries are common. It’s also helpful to have an alpha profile if you want Philip Rivers to feed you the ball. T.Y. Hilton is 5-9 and 183-pounds, whilst former Rivers teammate Mike Williams is 6-4 and 218-pounds. Opportunity doesn’t equate to fantasy points. A player can have the receiver room all to himself, but if he doesn’t have the skills necessary to be an alpha, it won’t pan out.

The good news is that any red zone opportunities Jamaal Williams receivers shouldn’t hinder D’Andre Swift’s ability to finish as a top-12 fantasy running back. Swift only saw a 35.1-percent (No. 35 among qualified running backs) Red Zone Snap Share and still finished with ten touchdowns, even though over 22.0-percent of Adrian Peterson’s carries came from inside the 20-yard line.

There is one area of concern for J.K. Dobbins. Baltimore only targeted their tailback 50 times in 2020 and 51 times in 2019. Outside of the Titans, no other team targeted their back less than 60 times. On top of the lack of targets, he was only targeted twice in the red zone (once in the playoffs) and his 16.7-percent Drop Rate was the highest of any back who saw 15 or more total targets.

When it comes to the top quarterback picks in fantasy football, Kirk Cousins is hardly ever in the conversation. Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen have more fanfare, but who can bring the most bang for your buck? When combining the advanced stats and metrics with his production, supporting cast, consistency and current Underdog Fantasy ADP outside the top 120, Cousins is poised to be fantasy football’s best value quarterback this season.

Even though he’s not a running quarterback, he still received rushing opportunities last season and will continue to do so. His 0.6 (No. 23 among qualified quarterbacks) red zone carries per game ranked above rushing QBs like Daniel Jones and Russell Wilson. With opponents looking for Dalvin Cook out of the backfield, Cousins will find himself keeping the ball in the red zone at a similar rate this upcoming season if he isn’t passing it in first.

With four RotoUnderworld SuperFlex/TE Premium mock drafts in the books, the top five in ADP has emerged as Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Najee Harris, Travis Etienne, and Trey Lance. It makes sense. Secure either the most highly regarded prospect in the class, an elite running back, or a mobile quarterback that oozes fantasy upside.

The strength of the class at the QB position is pushing plenty of upside into the second round of SuperFlex rookie drafts. Exciting wide receiver prospects Jaylen Waddle, Terrace Marshall, and Elijah Moore can all be drafted with an early-to-mid second. Kenny Gainwell did gain well to the tune of 12-pounds and continues to creep up into the mid-second round. Pat Freiermuth, Dyami Brown, and Michael Carter continue to be fixtures in the Pick No. 20 to 24 range.

Over the last month, we conducted our first RotoUnderworld Redraft Mock Draft of the season. And this is a good page to bookmark and juxtapose with our post-NFL Draft mock that will release next month. We had 14 teams, PPR scoring, and we drafted 15 rounds. Starting lineups consist of 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 Flex (RB/WR/TE), a defense, and a kicker.

I did not have Jonathan Taylor going at 1.03 on the bingo card. If Taylor is your guy though, you have no other option because he’s obviously not going to be there in the late second round. Cam Akers and D’Andre Swift went in the first 10 picks as well. That won’t be eye-popping by August.

Passing on TE at the 6-7 turn was risky, but worth it to nab the Russell Wilson-Jalen Hurts QB duo. But by the time it was my turn to pick in the eighth round, all of Dallas Goedert, Logan Thomas and Robert Tonyan were gone. I then realized I could have/should have passed on one of the QBs for a TE and honed in on Daniel Jones later to pair with Golladay. The tilt. It was, in fact, real.

Getting your QBs early in the Rookies and Sophomores format is basically an unwritten rule. Relying solely on this year’s rookie QB crop is a huge gamble, making a Jalen Hurts/Joe Burrow/Justin Herbert/Tua Tagovailoa selection a vital key to success.

The case for Chase Edmonds is clear. He’s the secret code to get into the good analysts room. The Cardinals signing Conner over other free agents and rookies is a vote of confidence in Edmonds’ ability, not a warning sign. The stock is there for the taking 20 weeks before it skyrockets. It’s time to take advantage.

Bryan Edwards has all the tools he needs to succeed. His elite frame and college production are traits to bet on. If Edwards finishes at or above the mid-WR3 range in his age 22 NFL season, he should gain at least 30 additional Lifetime Value points. That would nearly double his current value. Given his talent and situation, this target finish is well within reach. If you have the chance to get out from under this downtrending, top-heavy 2021 class and nab Edwards in return, do it.

Ja’Marr Chase wins with both athleticism and strength. His workout metrics were similar to Corey Coleman’s – only with more speed. His 33.4-percent (62nd-percentile among qualified wide receivers) College Dominator Rating was solid – if not quite as good as Coleman’s – but what can we expect for a guy sharing targets with Justin Jefferson, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Terrace Marshall?

Corey Coleman and Ja’Marr Chase are the only two wide receivers in the PlayerProfiler database with a Best Comparable Player of Odell Beckham. Although they have similar comps, Chase has better hands, wins in more ways and has excelled on the biggest stage against top NFL draft picks. If your dynasty roster calls for a WR stud, follow Player Profiler Dynasty Deluxe and Breakout Finder app recommendations and confidently select Chase.

During his time under Adam Gase, Ryan Tannehill posted above average marks in Yards per Attempt, Completion Percentage, and Touchdown Percentage. In contrast, Sam Darnold has been greatly below the league average in each of these statistics while playing under Gase. Both of these players suffered from low passing volume. The real difference is that Tannehill was able to make the best of his opportunities while Darnold has wasted them.

Sam Darnold is being drafted as a fringe top 100 player in SuperFlex startups. Despite producing fantasy production comparable to a mediocre wide receiver, he is still being priced near much more effective quarterbacks, and that can be used to gain value. If there is another manager who believes that there is hope for Darnold to have his breakout season, now is the time to cash in.

On top of breaking the single season receptions record in 2019, Michael Thomas was also the WR1 in fantasy by a long shot. Although he wasn’t as electric in 2020, he was still the clear alpha while on the field. Look no further than his leading all qualified wide receivers with a 42.5-percent Air Yards Share. I will be ecstatic to take him at a discount this year.

In his rookie season, Brandon Aiyuk logged a 100.0-percent (No. 1) Route Participation rate and a 31.1-percent (No. 28) Air Yards Share. He put on a show against top corners like Kendall Fuller, Marshon Lattimore, and others. With Aiyuk likely getting a QB upgrade, I’ll pass on receivers like Cooper Kupp, Diontae Johnson and Adam Thielen to smash the value with Aiyuk.