Fantasy Football

Dynasty managers that had the privilege of starting Austin Ekeler versus the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 11 were rewarded with a career best 41.5 point fantasy day (RB2). Eleven weeks into the 2021 campaign, Ekeler is averaging 22.1 Fantasy Points Per Game (RB3) – his most productive fantasy season to date. The 26 year-old UDFA earns 15.59 Lifetime Value points to rise three spots to RB11 in dynasty.

Back from injury to face the Atlanta Falcon’s in Week 11, Damien Harris had company in the Patriots backfield. He will need to be productive in Week 12 to keep rookie Rhamondre Stevenson from earning an even greater share of the Pats backfield. On the season, he trails Stevenson in both Juke Rate and Yards Created Per Touch. Harris loses 22.96 Lifetime Value points to drop seven spots to RB31. Stevenson climbs up to RB34.

Week 12 showcases two games that feature two teams with seven or more wins. The Tennessee Titans facing the New England Patriots makes one of the said matchups. The other is this article’s featured showdown: the 7-3 Los Angeles Rams traveling north to take on the 8-3 Green Bay Packers. One point separates these two in the eyes of Vegas, who view the Rams as the favorite. This matchup intrigues from all angles, so analyzing it is a must.

The Packers are an hour away from punching the clock on their night shift, while the Rams woke up from a good night’s sleep. The states of these two teams are polar opposites after the Rams came off a bye last week, while the Packers are battered and bruised with their bye next week. Vegas likes the Rams as one-point favorites, and it’s hard to find fault in their process.

Ja’Marr Chase, a prospect with a near flawless college profile, demonstrated that he can not only win, but excel when targeted downfield. He averaged an absurd 21.2 (96th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) College YPC, while pacing the NCAA and SEC in receiving yards. He scored 20 receiving touchdowns at age 21 as a true man among boys and was drafted No. 5 overall in the 2020 NFL Draft. The NFL industrial complex provided the biggest signal, that hey, this guy may just be good at football.

Ja’Marr Chase is 6-0, ran a 4.39 (95th-percentile) 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine, and posted a 135.7 (97th-percentile) Burst Score. A prototypical alpha X receiver with a 19.5 (77th-percentile) Breakout Age who posted a 1,780 yard sophomore season at LSU is not the next Justin Jefferson? Those touts were right, he was better than Jefferson in college and now he’s better than Jefferson in the NFL.

Once Antonio Brown and Stefon Diggs found their new homes in Tampa Bay and Buffalo, they thrived with the change of scenery. One would assume Odell Beckham will thrive in the Rams offense, especially after they lost Robert Woods for the rest of the year with a torn ACL. However, I am here to make the argument that it will not be much of a difference.

In negotiations to deal Odell Beckham, make sure you point out his ability to still get open and how he will be a week-winner for their team with his big play potential. Also, argue for Matthew Stafford’s MVP case and how he will feed Beckham now with Robert Woods out. Beckham will be better now that he is out of Cleveland, but that is not a high bar to clear. Leave that headache for someone else and get yourself a second-half rebound candidate.

The tight end throne has been taken for quite some time because Travis Kelce is the undisputed tight end champion of the world. All the talk at the beginning of the 2021 season was between tight ends T.J. Hockenson, Darren Waller, George Kittle, maybe Kyle Pitts, and of course Kelce. Mike Gesicki was so far down that he was an afterthought TE. The truth is Gesicki is now the number one contender for the TE 1 crown. Don’t make the mistake of upgrading him too slowly like many fantasy analysts do.

My prediction is Mike Gesicki will gradually fall down the ranks this year as Miami’s quarterback struggles will continue. He will finish anywhere from No. 5 to No. 10 in fantasy scoring, but his ADP won’t reflect his true upside. My guess is next year he will be overshadowed by players like T.J. Hockenson, Kyle Pitts, Darren Waller, Mark Andrews, and of course Travis Kelce. However, Gesicki will be the best value tight end drafted, and has a good chance to be the best tight end in fantasy football.

Before week 11, Sanders had a 7.9-percent (No. 5 among qualifying RBs before Week 11) Breakaway Run Rate and a 61.1-percent (No. 15) Snap Share. The Eagles have run the ball more in the second half of the season, with at least 30 rush attempts each of their last five games, so Sanders is slated to see more opportunity. The Giants have allowed at least 100 yards rushing to opponents in five of their last seven games this season (with 97 rush yards given up in Week 11).

Despite entering week 11 with an 80-percent (No. 8 among qualifying TEs before Week 11) Snap Share on a team averaging 38.0 (No. 9) Pass Plays per Game, Tyler Conklin averages less than 10.0 Fantasy Points Per Game, outside the top-10 TEs. Behind Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson, the Vikings’ pass game becomes murky. While Conklin gets his share of targets, he does not produce enough to be a weekly start in leagues with 10 or less teams. The 49ers have allowed more than 40 receiving yards to opposing TEs just once since Week 1. Conklin is in for a rough matchup.

Michael Carter is out for at least two weeks. Ty Johnson split time with Tevin Coleman, but outsnapped him last week. Expect Johnson to see an even larger share of the RB work this week. We have already seen his ability as a receiver with three games of five receptions or more. Treat him as a high end RB3/flex play this week.  

Marquez Valdes-Scantling led the Packers with 10 targets this past weekend, including a 75-yard TD grab. He finished with 123 yards receiving and has a plus matchup this week as Green Bay faces off in a potentially high-scoring game with the Rams. MVS can be frustrating at times, but he has big-play potential and can be started if you need a flex with upside.  

The New York Giants simply don’t deserve to be on Primetime TV. Daniel Jones is an erradic mess, and has struggled to get the ball to playmakers Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney. The offense looks to turn things around with Saquon Barkley hopeful to return to the lineup.

Tampa Bay is in a slump, but the Giants are the perfect get-right opponent. Tom Brady is still racking up elite production and helping Mike Evans and Chris Godwin have solid seasons. Leonard Fournette has blossomed as a bell-cow, racking up 15 fantasy point performances. The Bucs looks to gain Rob Gronkowski back to the slew of playmakers. =

Over the last several weeks, there has been a steady increase in Michael Carter’s routes run and Snap Share, which says that the Jets are beginning to use him as a bell cow, a role that will expand as the season progresses and as he gets more experience. The Jets are an abysmal team and will continue to find themselves in negative Game Scripts, which will lead to more targets for Carter in the passing game.

If you didn’t draft Michael Carter, it might be too late to trade for him. However, he had an okay game against the Colts and Bills, so you still have a chance to buy. When that time comes, ask for him as a sweetener in a deal for another buy low target. You want Carter on your roster. Go out and get him, and go win some leagues.

One of the longest-standing rivalries in Professional Football is affectionately referred to as THE BORDER BATTLE. The Green Bay Packers are heading into Minnesota to face the Vikings with both teams coming off wins in week 10. Opening at a decent total of 50 points with Green Bay being 2.5 road favorites we need to really dig in here to see if this is one of the games of the week we want to focus on from a fantasy standpoint.

Minnesota has had a duel personality this year and we don’t know which team we are going to get but I lean the Packers in this Sunday’s game. If bad Minnesota shows up the Packers will cruise to victory. If good Minnesota shows up the Packers still have outs as they’ve shown they can contend with the best in the league. The one-shot I would take here would be a Rodgers-Dillon-Adams Stack with a Justin Jefferson runback.