Matchups Start/Sit

Buffalo’s Stefon Diggs will certainly get his fair share, but Emmanuel Sanders behind him is in line to eat on this generally pass-heavy Bills team. Sanders had 6 (No. 5 among qualified wide receivers) Deep Targets and 335 (No. 8) Air Yards entering Week 4. Josh Allen likes to air it out, so expect Sanders to see plenty of run in what should be another high scoring affair Sunday night.

Pat Freiermuth and Eric Ebron only have a combined 19 targets out of Big Ben’s 170 pass attempts through four weeks. The Broncos, outside of five receptions to Mark Andrews last week, have not allowed more than three receptions to a tight end group so far this season. Freiermuth will have a hard time breaking out in Week 5 facing a good secondary with a small Target Share.

Darnell Mooney is inside the top-30 among qualified wide receivers in both Air Yards Share (33.5-percent) and Target Share (22.9-percent) for the Bears. Remember last week when Marquise Brown dropped two touchdowns against the Detroit Lions? Mooney is an equally as fast WR (4.38 40-Yard Dash, 95th-percentile) with better hands (two career drops on 117 targets).

Nelson Agholor has an 84.8-percent (No. 24) Snap Share, 114 (No. 7) Routes Run, and a 95.0-percent (No. 18) Route Participation. Fantasy football is about opportunity and being involved on offense is the first step to productivity. With 6 (No. 5) Deep Targets and a 14.0 (No. 21) Average Target Distance, he has a defined role on offense too.

The Cincinnati Bengals have a major edge in talent in this matchup. Joe Mixon is seeing elite opportunity metrics and is set up to smash. While Joe Burrow’s lack of pass attempts limits his ceiling, he’s talented enough to support more than one fantasy-relevant receiver.

The Urban Meyer experiment is failing miserably. Trevor Lawrence is struggling, D.J. Chark is still unreliable, and Laviska Shenault is being misused. The only saving graces from this offense have been James Robinson and Marvin Jones.

Devonta Smith is the clear No. 1 WR for Jalen Hurts and the Eagles. The “Slim Reaper” had a 51.2-percent (No. 6 among qualified wide receivers) Air Yards Share and a 26.8-percent (No. 16) Target Share through the first 2 games of the season and saw 6 of 38 team targets Monday night. While his week 2 and 3 lines did not look great, chase the targets. Against a bad defense in Week 4, Smith has a good chance to put up numbers similar to his Week 1 output.

Rondale Moore was a popular waiver add the last couple weeks. However, the speedy and agile receiver only saw two targets for two receptions and a yard last week. Moore has taken the majority of his snaps out of the slot. However, Christian Kirk is a major slot receiver for the team as well, and Moore hasn’t overtaken him yet, with just a 42.1-percent (No. 95) Snap Share prior to Week 3’s dud. Apart from top-15 WR Chris Godwin, the Rams have not allowed many yards to slot receivers.

This week the Philadelphia Eagles travel to play their hated divisional rival Dallas Cowboys for Week 3’s MNF game. The game will be a measuring stick for how good the Eagles’ offense is this season. For the Cowboys, they need to prove that their road victory over the Chargers and near upset of the Buccaneers was not a façade.

Are you ready for Devonta Smith week? The rookie has 237 (No. 11) Air Yards, a 51.2-percent (No. 6) Air Yards Share, and a 26.8-percent (No. 16) Target Share. Dallas is going to allow Air Yards. It’s a guarantee that a large portion will go to Smith. I see Pollard and his 18.8-percent Breakaway Run Rate and 47.8-percent (No. 4) Juke Rate scoring more fantasy points than Elliott on MNF.

The key to finding receivers rostered in less than 50-percent of leagues with startable upside is to follow the Air Yards. This week is no different when it comes to my two start recommendations. Emmanuel Sanders has 235 (No. 12) Air Yards, with 145 (No. 7) being Unrealized Air Yards.

Regardless of whether Antonio Brown plays or not, Mike Evans is a sit for me in Week 3. Opposing tight ends are targeted 19 times in two games against the Rams’ defense. Moore leads the Jets with 173 (No. 32) Air Yards, with 134 (N0. 9) being Unrealized Air Yards. The Broncos defense, thanks to Callahan, take away the check-down options and allow an Average Target Distance of 10.8.

Patience. It can be very hard to stay patient on a high pick like Saquon Barkley, but he draws a favorable matchup against the Falcons after many sat him last week against Washington. He showed signs of a return to form on a 41-yard run against Washington last week. Yet, he has shown little else with a bad offensive line and suspect play calling. If there was as good a time as any, Barkley has a chance to breakout Week 3 against Atlanta.

Marquez Callaway WR1 season has gotten off to a rocky start. He has 3 receptions on 6 targets in two weeks. J.C. Jackson brings another tough matchup this week. Jameis Winston is also coming off a rough outing with 2 interceptions in Week 2. The Patriots have 5 interceptions and held apposing QBs to 210 yards or less in Weeks 1 and 2. Both Callaway and Winston have a tough opponent in Week 3.

Diontae Johnson was a top-10 WR in Week 1 in Target Share (31.3-percent), Hog Rate (25.0-percent), and Target Rate (37.0-percent). However, Johnson will face stiff coverage from Casey Hayward (No. 17-ranked CB) in a game that the Steelers are projected to handle with ease. Volume is key to fantasy points scored. In 2020, Johnson averaged 19.44 fantasy points in seven games he ran 40-plus routes. In six games (excluding injuries) that he ran under 40 routes, he averaged 14.0 fantasy points.

Has Ja’Marr Chase relegated Tee Higgins to the 1B passing option in Cincinnati with Tyler Boyd as a target-stealing No. 3? Possibly. Chase more than doubled Higgins’ 48 (No. 58) Air Yards, while Chase’s 26.9-percent (No. 12) Target Share dwarfed Higgins’ 19.2-percent (No. 41). Against a lesser cornerback in Bashaud Breeland last week, Higgins secured a 10.0-percent (No. 73) Hog Rate. Joe Burrow will not force-feed targets to him if he can’t beat Jaylon Johnson (No. 20-ranked CB).

Behind Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen, TE Jared Cook is in line for a big game. Cook ranks 97th-percentile among qualified tight ends or higher in Speed Score, Burst Score, and Catch Radius, with a 99th-percentile arm length. He has a streak of four straight seasons with 500-plus receiving yards and caught 5 passes for 56 yards week 1. The Cowboys allowed 379 passing yards to the Buccaneers and the secondary did not look great. Cook is in for a great game this week as the Chargers’ third option in the passing game.

The Atlanta Falcons are going up against the defending Super Bowl champs in Week 2. While you may expect offense in this game, avoid Mike Davis. He measures at 5-9, with a 96.1 (48th-percentile) Speed Score. He has also averaged more than 4.0 yards per carry in just one season in his career. The Tampa Bay defensive line is imposing, led by 6-4, 347-pound Vita Vea. They held Ezekiel Elliott to just 3.0 yards per carry in Week 1.

The start of a new NFL season means the return of the weekly WR-CB Matchups article! This season my goal is to bring attention to receivers available in most leagues that can provide FLEX starts to fantasy teams. Also, I want to identify receivers that shouldn’t start despite starting in a vast majority of leagues. My START recommendations are ideal for FLEX spots in 1QB-2RB-2WR-1TE-1FLEX leagues. My SIT recommendations are ideal if there is an alternate candidate to play over the receiver.

Since 2019, Russell Gage has exceeded 70-percent Snap Share in 12 games. In those games, he has scored 12.8 PPG or more nine times. Last season, the Rams went 3-0 in home games where they were at least 5-point favorites. Robert Woods averaged less than 10.0 fantasy points per game in each game. Meanwhile, Parris Campbell’s Hog Rate has exceeded 13-percent in both of his NFL seasons, and his Target Rate hasn’t dipped below 26-percent in a season.