Matchups Start/Sit

Happy Breece Hall dance party! We’ve been marching toward the breakout with Hall’s gradual increase in playing time and workload, but we officially got there last week. And to be honest, this breakout happened even sooner than I thought it would. Remember back in Week 1 when I wrote about how second-round rookie running backs start slow? Well, for a brief summary: rookie second-round running backs since 2012 leading up to the 2022 season that registered at least 150 touches averaged 9.8 PPR points per game in their first career NFL games. In the last five games of their rookie season? 15.62.

Tyler Lockett is matched up with Byron Murphy, who is top-20 in Yards Allowed, Yards Per Reception Allowed, and Yards Per Target Allowed. Drake London is No. 81 in Target Separation and No. 77 in Contested Catch Rate. His primary coverage, Charvarius Ward, is top-10 in Target Separation and No. 2 in Pass Break-Ups with 7.

What Russell Gage lacks in Target Share (15.3-percent, No. 59) and Air Yards (153), he makes up for with Target Separation (2.03, No. 22) and 78 (No. 42) Yards After Catch. K.J. Osborn’s lackluster 11.5-percent (N0. 85) Target Share and 15.3-percent (No. 75) Air Yards Share are countered with his 76.4-percent (No. 51) Snap Share and 162 (No. 23) Routes Run.

With Javonte Williams out, Melvin Gordon is the primary RB in Denver. He got over half of Denver’s RB opportunities last week and projects to see similar usage going forward. Gordon had three receptions last week and will have the opportunity to rack up targets against the Chargers’ lackadaisical defense against receiving backs. Chase the opportunity against a subpar defense and fire up Gordon this week

The Buccaneers are one of the better defenses against the run, allowing four rushing touchdowns in five games this season. They have also allowed four or less RB receptions in four out of those five games. Harris is an inefficient runner and relies on receptions and touchdowns to stay afloat for fantasy. He does not have a good matchup for those components this week.

Week 5 was somewhat a reversal of Week 4. Last week we discussed the “rise of the dead zone,” based on it being a soft week for RB streamers and highly drafted backs alike in comparison to mid-round options. This was what a more traditional “good RB week” looks like. The backs scored well. The top 12 and top 24 RBs outscored their receiver counterparts for the second time this season and for the second consecutive week. However, this time it was the elites of the position doing it.

Well, five weeks into 2022, those QBs, Russell Wilson and Matt Ryan, have not been upgrades at all. On Thursday they combined for zero touchdowns and four interceptions. Between them, they’ve tossed more picks than scores on the season.

While everyone in Indianapolis wanted to run Carson Wentz out of town after 2021’s stunning season-ending loss to the Jags, so far in 2022, Matt Ryan has put up fewer Fantasy Points per Game and a lower True Passer Rating and QBR than Carson did last year.

Week 5’s Monday Night game between the Raiders and Chiefs boasts a week-high 51.5 game total. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are 7.5 point home favorites while hosting the road-dog Raiders.

Mike Williams has not faced a cornerback ranked inside the top-30 though. Last season, Williams played against six top-30 CBs. He failed to finish inside the top-40 WRs in each of those six weeks.

Noah Brown has been sneaky good this season. He’s top-25 in Yards Per Route Run, Yards Per Target, and Yards Per Reception. Because of injuries, he’s seen a 21.3-percent (No. 32) Target Share. Fading Marquise Brown last week was not a good call, but it’s hard to bet against Darius Slay this season. Slay is No. 3 in Coverage Rating (+45.8) and No. 3 in Catch Rate Allowed (28.6-percent).

Three seasons, three mediocre quarterbacks. Matt Ryan completes Indianapolis’s Knights of the Mediocre Roundtable. His above-average accuracy metrics are dulled by his inability to push the ball past the sticks. Ryan’s 2.5 (No. 26 of qualified quarterbacks) Deep Ball Attempts per Game and 6.4 (No. 29) Air Yards per Attempt are both worse than Phillip Rivers in the final season of his career. With nine (No. 1) fumbles and five (No. 2) interceptions, Ryan is rapidly approaching a 2020 Drew Brees-level of bad.

The Texans have allowed over 100 yards rushing to opponents in three out of four games this season. They have also allowed at least 9 RB receptions in two of those games and yielded 6 total touchdowns to RBs. Etienne is the pass-catching back in Jacksonville, seeing 11 targets to Robinson’s 7 so far this season. The matchup against Houston in Week 5 is the spot for Etienne to finally come through for fantasy owners.

While Sanders dominates RB touches now, his overall Snap Share is still less than 60-percent and Hurts is a continuous threat to take rushing touchdown opportunities. Expect the Cardinals and Eagles to play to their respective strengths in a shootout through the passing game this week. Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown are in for big weeks, but Sanders is in line to be left behind against a solid run defense in what will be a high scoring, passing-dominated affair.

This week was the revenge of the Running Backs in a couple of ways. First of all, they simply scored more points. For the first time this season, the top 12 running backs of the week outscored the top 12 wide receivers of the week. As for who scored those points, it was a bit of a mixed bag. Only three of the top 12 RBs were drafted as top 12 RBs, while six of the top 12 WRs were drafted as such. That being said, seven of the top 12 RBs were drafted top 24 at the position, and only Jamaal Williams qualified as a “streamer” among the top 12 finishers. This was by far the worst streaming week of the year.