Dynasty Leagues

Welcome to the latest and greatest arena where fantasy football takes thrive or die. A place where fantasy football propositions can gain validity or be thrown by the wayside. This is the second installment of the Fantasy Football Shark Tank.

Allen Robinson, Russell Gage, and Chase Edmonds should all be targeted in 2022. Given their talents and their new situations it will. Despite not being their new teams’ primary pass catchers, Gage and Robinson will get fantastic quarterback upgrades. And Edmonds is looking like he will get the first crack at being the Dolphins number one running back. It’s good process rostering any of these three players in the 2022 season. 

Although many people love trade negotiations, others get intimidated and are risk-averse; fearing that their return may be perceived as the “loser” in the deal (which in dynasty is not a simple evaluation given that situations change every year, injuries happen, and values fluctuate). Thanks to smart people and technology, there are now numerous sites that host their own versions of trade calculators based on each site’s dynasty rankings.

Trading away young players that are perceived to be more valuable than what their profiles dictate, in exchange for depreciating assets with proven production, allows for more creativity in formulating trades with the additional assets acquired, or to rebuild a roster by acquiring future draft picks on top of proven talent that are past the age-apex curve.

In this edition of Thinking About Thinking (Ranges of Outcomes), I continue my series addressing probabilistic fantasy football strategy. Each article I will unpack ways our brains work in irrational ways that create value in your fantasy football leagues. Last week I discussed analytical prospect models, and the importance of humility when evaluating rookies. If you haven’t yet, make sure to check that out to get a feel for this series!

In a ceiling scenario, Tua Tagovailoa is a top-12 quarterback this year with his new weapons, entrenching himself as Miami’s franchise quarterback. On the other hand, he could fail to meet expectations and carry precarious job security into 2023. Schrodinger’s Tua is both alive and dead, but his cost resides in purgatory. His market value is a compromise position between two plausible outcomes which attempts to balance them appropriately.

Welcome to the latest and greatest arena where fantasy football takes thrive or die. A place where fantasy football propositions can gain validity or be thrown by the wayside. This is the second installment of the Fantasy Football Shark Tank.

Christian Watson has exceeded all expectations so far this draft season. He put himself on the map by killing the Senior Bowl. The wide receiver further elevated his stock value with his excellent performance at the NFL Combine. If the NFL continues the current trend of taking five or six wide receivers in round one, Watson could very well end up being one of them. 

In each of the last three years N’Keal Harry, Jalen Reagor and Rondale Moore have had underwhelming starts to their career despite excellent analytical prospect profiles. Each year the consensus has bequeathed different reasons why their lack of success was foreseeable. Harry could not separate. Reagor played in the Big 12 conference. Rondale Moore is too short. So should we now avoid every short player, non-separator or big 12 player?

Some may say we should simply view each player in their own context to determine what rules to apply. I would argue these players most likely failed because sometimes good prospects bust, and often the reasons don’t reveal themselves until after the fact, if at all.

Breece Hall’s resume is as sparkling as one a college running back could create. His tape and production already made him a nearly indestructible running back. But him blowing up the Combine was the last piece to make him a bulletproof prospect. To make matters even better, won’t turn 21 until May 31st, more than a month after he hears his name called. He should be the first running back to hear his name called among his class both in the NFL Draft and in upcoming fantasy drafts.

Whoa! Well, hello there Christian Watson! He may not have lit the college football landscape on fire the way Breece Hall did. But, he did manage to accumulate a robust College Dominator Rating/College YPR combo. Watson blew up the Senior Bowl with his dynamic skillset and then did the same at the Combine with his otherworldly athleticism. Doing so solidified him as a likely Day 2 draft pick at the minimum and possibly a first-round pick in late April. When it comes to winners of the Combine and the draft season, perhaps no player did so as emphatically.

Welcome to the latest and greatest arena where fantasy football takes thrive or die. A place where fantasy football propositions can gain validity or be thrown by the wayside. This is the first installment of the Fantasy Football Shark Tank.

Despite Tony Pollard’s fantastic efficiency metrics and Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s lackluster production, the two backs’ fantasy values have yet to fully flip. D.J. Moore is a stud. He is a wildly talented wide receiver that is as close to QB proof as there is. Just like Pollard, Moore needs his situation to improve to fully reach his potential. But unlike Pollard, he is a stable dynasty asset regardless of his team making any improvements.

After one full year of waiting, fantasy football’s greatest mock drafting rivalry has been renewed. It’s UNDERWORLD VS ROSTERWATCH 2 (Electric Boogaloo?) The best from both sites partake in a fierce, ongoing, totally-serious-with-no-room-for-cheeky-shenanigans series of fantasy football rookie mocks.

The only two players from Round 1 not ranked among PlayerProfiler’s top 12 rookies are David Bell and Jahan Dotson, taking the places of Jerome Ford and Brian Robinson, respectively. Though this sentiment technically goes against our rankings, it shows that you want to take your 2022 WRs early. An easy assessment from our end given the main pre-Combine focus of the Underworld admittedly being on the RB position. Noah Hills’ extensive research shows us that the 2022 NFL Draft is starved for backs with complete skillsets. It’s up to us to find players that represent the oasis in the middle of this proverbial desert.

The RotoUnderworld community will be partaking in a series of 12-team, five-round rookie mock drafts, running through the spring and summer. The mock drafters will be comprised of PlayerProfiler writers/analysts, our friends in the Patreon community, and our good friends over at The Breakout Finder. Today features 2022 Rookie Mock Recap #4, a Superflex format.

Bailey Zappe has the highest ceiling in this QB draft class. He threw for nearly 6,000 yards and 62 touchdowns last season. That is just absurd. Especially in SuperFlex, I see no argument as to why he isn’t at least worth a late-round flier. Sure he played for Western Kentucky. Sure he didn’t really impress at the Senior Bowl. But those two things are not disqualifying. Tim Tebow won a Heisman and, for all intents and purposes, didn’t produce at the NFL level. Zappe will be an interesting player to watch this year.

The RotoUnderworld community will be partaking in a series of 12-team, five-round rookie mock drafts, running through the spring and summer. The mock drafters will be comprised of PlayerProfiler writers/analysts, our friends in the Patreon community, and our good friends over at The Breakout Finder. While these pieces will include quick-hitting notes from the drafters about why they made their selection, our writers will take turns recapping the festivities and adding their own unique perspectives.

The rise of Kenneth Walker, transferring to Michigan State from Wake Forest and leaping into the top 10 for 2022 rookie drafts, is something we have seen from quarterbacks in the years past. Not only did Walker join the first Round, but also did Jameson Williams (transfer from Ohio State), and Jerome Ford (transfer from Alabama). That is three transfers over the last two seasons moving into Round 1 of this year’s draft.