Leveraging the NFL’s Most Volatile Receivers for GPP Upside in Week 4

by Matthew M. Stevens · Upside Plays

Unlocking the potential of weekly player volatility in daily fantasy football gives gamers a competitive edge. A key metric on PlayerProfiler, Weekly Volatility measures a player’s week-to-week fantasy point scoring oscillation. This article will track the most volatile wide receivers and provide insight on when to deploy them in large-field GPPs. Using matchup and usage data combined with advanced stats to pinpoint the best plays yields the best ROI from volatile players. The focus will be on those highly volatile players with cheap salaries and low projected ownership who make screaming plays with tournament winning upside.

Hollywood Primed for Spotlight Game

Marquise Brown hasn’t lived up to his “Hollywood” moniker this season. Fantasy gamers anticipating a fast start similar to last season’s 30.7-point, Week 1 coming out party have been let down. Brown hasn’t flashed that massive upside since that game against Miami, and he’s yet to eclipse 15.1 fantasy points this season. So goes the nature of boom/bust players.

Marquise Brown Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

Brown’s $6,300 DraftKings price tag doesn’t reflect his upside, but it’s ironically the highest it’s been so far this season despite his slow start. He sports the same price on FanDuel, where the pricing is usually softer. Regardless, he’s a fine play on either site for main slate, large-field GPPs.

While Brown’s Fantasy Points per Game have dropped each week this season, his 81.6-percent Snap Share against the Chiefs in Week 3 represented a season-high. He also has a 24.0-percent (No. 17 among qualified wide receivers) Target Share, but isn’t running a ton of routes, evidenced by an 89.7-percent (No. 39) Route Participation mark. Still, he’s a proven downfield threat with slate-breaking potential. Game flow may be a concern since the Washington Football Team are 13-point dogs, but if the Ravens come out and take a few deep shots early, Brown can make a lineup before halftime.

Ditching the Deep Play Drought

Six of Brown’s 18 targets have registered as Deep Targets, which ranks No. 7 among qualified wide receivers. Lamar Jackson has targeted him on six of his nine (No. 17) Deep Ball Attempts. Brown has also earned a 35.1-percent (No. 12) Air Yards Share. He’s seeing the downfield looks and there is still more meat on the bone, evidenced by his 125 (No. 28) Completed Air Yards and 114 (No. 25) Unrealized Air Yards. However, Jackson currently sports a disappointing 22.2-percent (No. 26) Deep Ball Completion Percentage, down over 11-percent from last season. This dynamic duo looks primed to hook up on a few signature plays.


The Ravens square off against Washington, which profiles as an extremely difficult matchup (-7.21) according to PlayerProfiler’s Strength of Schedule metric. Numbers under -2.00 signal a tough test. However, Brown’s main cornerback matchup against Fabian Moreau and his -2.6 Coverage Rating can be exploited. Moreau ranks No. 38 in PlayerProfiler’s cornerback rankings. In his lone game this season, he didn’t break up any passes while allowing one touchdown to DeAndre Hopkins. If anyone can burn Moreau and his 4.35 (98th-percentile) speed, it’s Hollywood. With Mark Andrews struggling, the Ravens should funnel more targets Brown’s way. It’s time to fire him up this week.

Green’s Redemption Tour Starts Here

Through three games A.J. Green has had the pleasure of facing off against two top-tier cornerbacks in Darius Slay and Casey Hayward. He’s coming off a year-long absence from the NFL after having ankle reconstruction surgery, and admitted that the injury has affected his performance so far. Given the COVID-19 ripple effect on the offseason, he didn’t have a great chance to build chemistry with rookie Joe Burrow. This ultimately led to a disappointing start and resulted in him being labeled as a “washed” player. However, he’s in the process of shaking off the rust. He’s also historically a boom-or-bust archetype, posting Weekly Volatility marks of 8.7 in 2017 and 7.5 in the 2018 season. Players with values greater than 8.0 see significant weekly output oscillation.


Gamers who look strictly at Green’s high volume and low output believe he’s in decline, and that offers leverage this week. His low projected rostership on the main slate makes him a mouth-watering play, and he’s in a much better spot matchup-wise this week, too.

Consider this:

-The Bengals pass the ball more than any other team in the league at 51.7 plays per game.

-Green ranks No. 2 with 386 Air Yards and No. 1 with 283 Unrealized Air Yards and has drawn seven (No. 4) Deep Targets.

-Burrow has logged 14 (No. 8) Deep Ball Attempts, but only has a 7.1-percent (No. 33) Deep Ball Completion Percentage.

-Burrow boasts the highest PFF grade ever for a college QB on passes traveling 10 or more yards downfield.

Green also draws a better main cornerback matchup this week against Jacksonville’s C.J. Henderson, who ranks No. 34 in PlayerProfiler’s cornerback rankings. Green will continue to see a high volume of targets and find his footing working against the rookie Henderson. This week, he oozes with the potential to eclipse 100 receiving yards and end his touchdown drought.