DFS

As Miami’s all-time leading rusher with a 33.0-percent (76th-percentile among qualified running backs) College Dominator Rating, Duke Johnson can clearly handle a heavy workload. He’s just been miscast as a satellite back due to his 14.8-percent (93rd-percentile) College Target Share and smaller stature at 5-9 and 207-pounds. The team that miscast him for the first four seasons is his opponent this week, the Cleveland Browns. They traded Johnson away last season, setting up a nice revenge narrative.

Mike Davis offers one of the highest floors at his position with 49 (No. 3) targets, 43 (No. 2) receptions, and 127 (No. 9) Weighted Opportunities this season. Despite a difficult matchup with the Buccaneers, most cash lineups will feature Davis this week. His high-floor role and stone-min pricing allow DFS gamers to afford the premium QBs on the slate that offer the monster ceilings required to win. If you aren’t playing Davis, you are overthinking cash this week.

Despite an Air Yards Share that is tops in the league by more than two percent, Terry McLaurin is habitually underpriced on DraftKings. While it may be his abysmal quarterback situation that is driving the price down, DFS players should continue to insert him into daily lineups regardless of who is under center for Washington. Squaring off against Detroit’s horrendous passing defensive in Week 10, McLaurin is set to boom for possibly his best game all season.

Since Sterling Shepard’s return from injury, Darius Slayton’s usage in the Giant’s passing game has cratered. It reached an all-time low last week when he saw only six Air Yards. However, he maintains a high Air Yards Share as a result of being the only Giants wide receivers who can appropriately stretch the filed, evidenced by a 12.9 (No. 28 among qualified wide receivers) Average Target Distance mark. With Shepard back, Slayton is solely a tournament play who may or may not catch a deep ball.

Next up for Aaron Jones is Jacksonville, whose 10 touchdowns allowed to running backs ranks No. 27 in the league. With four touchdowns over the last three weeks, James Robinson enters Week 10 ranked No. 6 among qualified running backs with 580 rushing yards. Entering Week 10, Green Bay is tied for dead last with 15 touchdowns allowed to running backs. Jones and Robinson is the Smash of the Week for Monkey Knife Fight Touchdown Props.

This week, The Podfather sees the first of many matchups between Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert being a shootout. Herbert has passed for less than 278 yards just once, in Week 5 at New Orleans where he finished with 268 yards. In his second career start, Tagovailoa looks to capitalize on a Chargers secondary that is vulnerable to the deep ball while missing cornerback Chris Harris to injury.

The Jerry Jeudy breakout is in full swing. The first-rounder from Alabama has seen 24 targets over the last two weeks. He received 14 of those in Week 9, converting seven for 125 yards and a touchdown in last Sunday’s loss to the Falcons. Jeudy has scored twice in the last five weeks and has been particularly dominant over the last two, thanks to a noticeable bump in usage within the Denver offense. His DraftKings salary of $5,600 is not in line with his recent performance. Take advantage.

Christian Kirk has been hot over the last three games, finishing as a top-15 wide receiver with seven or more targets in each. Kirk has a 17.4 (No. 10 among qualified wide receivers) Yards Per Reception average and a 32.2-percent (No. 8) Dominator Rating. With the Bills likely focused on locking down DeAndre Hopkins—much like the Dolphins did—Kirk is in line for another high Target Share. With another boom week looming, he’s a nice play at $5,700.

John Brown ($5,300 DraftKings salary) appears back to full health after dealing with a knee injury that forced him to miss two games and hampered his play when he did suit up. The differential between Brown’s 197 (No. 68 among qualified wide receivers) Completed Air Yards and 310 (No. 25) Unrealized Air Yards means a boom week looms on the horizon with consistent volume.

Brandin Cooks carries the No. 14-ranked Weekly Volatility score, which signals his extremely volatile fantasy scoring nature. In regard to the metric, values over 10.0 are considered very volatile. But he also brings a 30-point ceiling to the table and carries a salary ($5,600) that’s $1,000 cheaper than teammate Will Fuller ($6,700). He’s trending in the right direction post-Bill O’Brien and possesses the ability to produce a slate-breaking performance at low rostership.

In the six games Mike Davis filled in for Christian McCaffrey earlier this season, he averaged 17.3 fantasy points and finished as an RB1 three times. Davis boasts a 38.5 percent (No. 2 among qualified running backs) Juke Rate with 49 (No. 4) Evaded Tackles on his 128 touches. His elite receiving role, ability to create on his own and minimum salary makes him a lock in cash games.

D’Andre Swift broke the slate in Week 6 (30.3 DK points) with multiple Breakaway Runs and touchdowns, so we know it’s in his range of outcomes. Despite this, he will check in with minuscule Week 10 ownership. Most casual DFS gamers will also see the Washington defense and shy away from him. His snaps and opportunities are all trending in the right direction and we’ve already seen his explosiveness this season.

Sifting through the high-end stacking options this week, there is one that may get lost based on matchup. Russell Wilson and the Seahawks face the intimidating Los Angeles Rams defense. In a game with the second highest projected total, ignore the difficult on-paper defensive matchup and get exposure to massive upside at what’s expected to be unusually low ownership from the Seahawks offense.

With projected negative Game Script and a healthy set of receivers, Drew Lock should see enough volume to make him a viable play at $5.5K on DraftKings. Jerry Jeudy has arrived. It took some time as a rookie, but he is now commanding an alpha-level Target Share and alpha-level Air Yards. He’s delivering on that opportunity as well. Yet DraftKings seems to think it’s still Week 7 by pricing him at $5.6K. Capitalize while you can.

Given how Hayden Hurst has already seen four (No. 7 among qualified tight ends) Deep Targets and 412 (No. 3) Air Yards, we can expect him to pick up a few of each from Calvin Ridley, who leads the NFL in both categories. The game environment isn’t ideal. The Broncos rank No. 10 in Defensive Passing DVOA, but the Falcons defense is so bad that this game can easily shootout. Hurst projects for plenty of targets, both deep and in the red zone. He should be a cash lineup lock at his price.

Those who want to afford Dalvin Cook and Chase Edmonds in their cash lineups will likely need to pay down at one RB spot. Justin Jackson is the best pay-down option after he took command of the Los Angeles backfield last week. The Chargers are 1.5-point favorites at home against the Raiders. This game also has the third-highest total on the slate at 51.5 points. Sharp DFS gamers will want to play the RB that’s favored at home with a high total.

In Week 9, Christian McCaffrey is back for Carolina, and that means it’s time to dabble back in the Touchdown Dance. He returns for the first time since Week 2, coming off of back-to-back two-score games. In Week 9, he draws a Kansas City Chiefs defense that ranks No. 29 against the run.

Michael Thomas returns for the first time since Week 1, when he finished with a 3-17 stat line against Carlton Davis. In Week 9, Thomas draw Davis’ coverage again while coming off ankle and hamstring injuries. He’s likely to be a decoy in Tampa, aligning for an Emmanuel Sanders and Jared Cook-focused game.

D.J. Moore is coming off a disappointing Week 8 performance against a highly exploitable Falcons secondary where he failed to crest double digits fantasy points. However, those disappointed with him this season need to keep the faith. The last time he appeared on this list, he exploded for 25.3 fantasy points, finishing as the WR6 in Week 7. Moore should see penalty of opportunity in a negative Game Script against the Kansas City Chiefs.

Darius Slayton appears to have taken a back seat to Sterling Shepard in the Giants passing game. However, he still led the Giants with 122 Air Yards last week. Slayton previously scored 11.8 fantasy points against Washington in Week 6. With Shepard back to divert the attention of Washington’s defense, he should be able to realize some more Air Yards this week.