Air Yards DFS Value Index – Week 10

by Edward DeLauter, November 14, 2020

The goal of the Air Yards DFS Value Index is to determine the best “bang for your buck” in daily fantasy. This is accomplished by utilizing a player’s Air Yards and Air Yards Share to create a weighted Air Yards metric. We then compare this metric with each player’s DFS salary to create a Value Score. The best value Air Yards play on the week is always scored with a value of 100. All other players are compared against that player with decreasing value. This list is not a mere recitation of where each player is ranked — a simple machine could do that. This list contextualizes each players Value Score so as to present the top ten Air Yard values in DFS for the week focusing on players priced at or below $5,500 on DraftKings.

Again, we will highlight two wide receivers on the Air Yards Value Index priced above $5,500 and then focus on the top ten Air Yards Value Plays priced at $5,500 or below on DraftKings.

PAYING UP

Terry McLaurin – DK: $6,800

Air Yards Value Score: 83.96

Air Yards: 791 (No. 10 among qualified wide receivers)
Air Yards Share: 45.0-percent (No. 1)
Unrealized Air Yards: 444 (No. 7)

Terry McLaurin has rented out space in this portion of the Value Index article for some time now. Despite an Air Yards Share that is tops in the league by more than two percent, McLaurin is habitually underpriced on DraftKings. While it may be his abysmal quarterback situation that is driving the price down, DFS players should continue to insert him into daily lineups regardless of who is under center for Washington. He has topped double digits fantasy points in all but one game this season, showing he is both situation and matchup proof. Squaring off against Detroit’s horrendous passing defense in Week 10, McLaurin is set to boom for possibly his best game all season.

Robby Anderson – DK: $6,100

Air Yards Value Score: 84.14

Air Yards: 806 (No. 9)
Air Yards Share: 39.7-percent (No. 5)
Unrealized Air Yards: 378 (No. 12)

Just as everyone predicted this offseason, Robby Anderson is the WR1 in Carolina. While the peripheral numbers suggest that he is essentially splitting WR1 duties with D.J. Moore, Anderson has outscored Moore thus far this season, averaging 15.4 (No. 18 among qualified wide receivers) Fantasy Points per Game as compared to Moore’s 13.0 (No. 38) mark. While this difference in points per game appears close, it should be even wider, with Anderson having 378 Unrealized Air Yards to 324 (No. 22) for Moore.


Check out Robby Anderson on PlayerProfiler’s Updated Weekly Rankings and Projections:


With the regular season more than halfway over, it’s time that DFS players embrace the year 2020 and begrudgingly accept that Anderson is not just the WR1 on the Panthers, but a weekly top option in DFS.

Top-10 Value List

No. 10) Diontae Johnson – DK: $5,200

Air Yards Value Score: 37.90

Air Yards: 480 (No. 43)
Air Yards Share: 25.6-percent (No. 48)
Unrealized Air Yards: 351 (No. 18)

In the games that Diontae Johnson has been healthy enough to play more than 70-percent of the snaps, he has averaged 19 Fantasy Points per Game. This would place him as the WR6 overall on the season.

Clearly Pittsburgh’s top passing game weapon, Johnson just needs to avoid injury to be a top tier option at the position. At $5,200 on DraftKings, this injury risk is overbaked into the price. He’s a no-brainer cash play and has tournament-winning upside.

No. 9) Henry Ruggs – DK: $4,500

Air Yards Value Score: 42.45

Air Yards: 415 (No. 59)
Air Yards Share: 28.7-percent (No. 30)
Unrealized Air Yards: 293 (No. 30)

Henry Ruggs has disappointed thus far as the first wide receiver selected in the 2020 NFL Draft. Setting aside a Week 5 outburst in which he scored 19.8 (No. 16) fantasy points, Ruggs has averaged only slightly more than 4.0 Fantasy Points per Game. Despite his entry-killing floor, Ruggs has seen at least 60 Air Yards in each of the past two games. He is best suited for tournament lineups as a contrarian play that has boom potential against an exploitable Broncos secondary.

No. 8) Josh Reynolds – DK: $3,500

Air Yards Value Score: 45.98

Air Yards: 442 (No. 51)
Air Yards Share: 22.7-percent (No. 57)
Unrealized Air Yards: 221 (No. 48)

Despite offseason narratives, the Rams have used three wide receiver sets on 68.0-percent of all offensive snaps. The clear third option among Rams receivers, Josh Reynolds has assumed a greater role in the offense lately. Since Week 6, he has seen at least 70 Air Yards per game.

Josh Reynolds Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

Set to face off against the Seattle Seahawks, the most magnanimous passing defense in all of football, Reynolds makes for a fine tournament play under the assumption that the Rams look to move the ball through the air in Week 10.

No. 7) Tim Patrick – DK: $4,900

Air Yards Value Score: 52.16

Air Yards: 620 (No. 29)
Air Yards Share: 25.7-percent (No. 47)
Unrealized Air Yards: 309 (No. 26)

With Jerry Jeudy‘s Week 9 breakout stealing the show, some may forget how reliable Tim Patrick has been. He averages 11.9 (No. 43) Fantasy Points per Game and continues to see opportunity. Since Week 4, Patrick has averaged 110 Air Yards per game. While he doesn’t have the type of upside needed for tournaments, he makes a fine cash game play.

No. 6) Tee Higgins – DK: $5,500

Air Yards Value Score: 52.64

Air Yards: 654 (No. 26)
Air Yards Share: 27.6-percent (No. 38)
Unrealized Air Yards: 319 (No. 24)

Tee Higgins is part of a receiving triumvirate that is buoyed by Cincinnati’s high-volume passing offense. He has seen at least 50 Air Yards and has finished with double digit fantasy points in every game since Week 2. Because of the way the Bengals spread the ball around, he makes for a better cash game play, as he is not seeing the type of volume required for a spike week.

No. 5) Mike Williams – DK: $5,400

Air Yards Value Score: 55.51

Air Yards: 658 (No. 25)
Air Yards Share: 28.4-percent (No. 34)
Unrealized Air Yards: 332 (No. 20)

Mike Williams has now made this list in each of the past four weeks.

Mike Williams 2020 Game Logs

There is little else to say that has remained unsaid. Williams now has back-to-back games with five targets and 90-plus Air Yards. He continues to be heavily targeted downfield with a 16.5 (No. 7) Average Target Distance mark. He’s an ideal play in all formats.

No. 4) Marquez Valdez-Scantling – DK: $ 4,400

Air Yards Value Score: 76.72

Air Yards: 690 (No. 21)
Air Yards Share: 30.5-percent (No. 22)
Unrealized Air Yards: 437 (No. 8)

Of course the one week Marquez Valdes-Scantling decides to realize some Air Yards, he is not on the main slate. Typical! Since all-pro Davante Adams‘ return, MVS has been a highly volatile play, seeing anywhere from 131 Air Yards to 18 Air Yards on a weekly basis.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling 2020 Game Logs – Weeks 6-9

Set to face off against the Jaguars in Week 10, the Packers may not need to air it out to get the win, which makes Valdes-Scantling a risky tournament play.

No. 3) D.J. Moore – DK: $5,100

Air Yards Value Score: 88.81

Air Yards: 757 (No. 12)
Air Yards Share: 37.3-percent (No. 10)
Unrealized Air Yards: 324 (No. 22)

As alluded to earlier, D.J. Moore is essentially splitting the WR1 role in Carolina with Robby Anderson, who has vastly outproduced him. Moore is also coming off his worst Air Yards performance of the season, seeing only 14 in Week 9. Facing off against a stout Buccaneers defense, h’s a contrarian Hail Mary play in Week 10.

2) A.J. Green – DK: $4,400

Air Yards Value Score: 90.28

Air Yards: 812 (No. 7)
Air Yards Share: 30.5-percent (No. 22)
Unrealized Air Yards: 554 (No. 2)

A.J. Green appeared to be clawing his way back to fantasy relevance with over 100 Air Yards in Weeks 6 and 7, posting over 15.0 Fantasy Points per Game in both games. However, he again was tripped up by father time in Week 8, posting only 3.9 (No. 73) fantasy points.

Facing off against a top Steelers defense and projected to see the most favorable matchup among all Bengals wide receivers, Green is a preferred contrarian play.

No. 1) Darius Slayton – DK: $4,800

Air Yards Value Score: 100

Air Yards: 750 (No. 13)
Air Yards Share: 39.9-percent (No. 4)
Unrealized Air Yards: 356 (No. 16)

Since Sterling Shepard‘s return from injury, Darius Slayton‘s usage in the Giant’s passing game has cratered. It reached an all-time low last week when he saw only six Air Yards. However, he maintains a high Air Yards Share as a result of being the only Giants wide receiver who can appropriately stretch the filed, evidenced by a 12.9 (No. 28) Average Target Distance mark. With Shepard back, Slayton is solely a tournament play who may or may not catch a deep ball.

Good luck to everyone in Week 9. May all your Air Yards be realized.