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Drafting DeShaun Watson in the second round may be tempting after how he played last year, but it’s a mistake. Better to pick up Alex Smith off the waiver wire or simply draft “Mr. Set It and Forget It” Phillip Rivers.

Tyrell Williams is only entering his fourth season. In his 2nd NFL season, he was able to eclipse 1000 receiving yards. Then, in what many would deem as a down year in 2017, he made up for counting stats with efficiency.

D.J. Moore is not only the best WR prospect of his class, he is one of the best of the past decade and a half. His insane combination of final year market share, breakout age, and NFL Draft Scout ranking gives him a fantastic projection in my WR prospect model.

If DJ Moore is off the board, Courtland Sutton is the logical next choice. Sutton is the signature split end/X-receiver prototype of this draft class and is one only a handful of first-round graded prospects in a weak wide receiver class. His college dominance and size-adjusted athleticism suggest his upside is almost uncapped.

Advanced stats and metrics show that Josh Allen should not be considered in the first round of the NFL Draft. Meanwhile, an analytics-based prospect evaluation process pinpoints Harold Landry as a top value on draft day.

Despite Ozzie Newsome’s affinity for Alabama players, the Ravens should pass on Calvin Ridley and select D.J. Moore. Despite playing with eight different quarterbacks in college, Moore still achieved absurd production, finishing his final college season with a 53.3-percent (97th-percentile) College Dominator Rating.

With the 2018 NFL Draft around the corner, it is time to look at a running back that isn’t even on the radar. He is New Mexico State’s Larry Rose III. He’s the sneakiest of all sleepers because he has the pedigree, the production, and the athleticism. At his Pro Day, he ran a 4.47 40-Yard Dash which puts him in the 86th-percentile. His 121.4 Burst Score places him in the 67th-percentile.

For his entire football career, Rose III has taken the road less travelled. He might be the most misunderstood and unappreciated running back coming into this draft. His story needs to be known and his name needs to be recognized. I had the pleasure and privilege to interview Larry Rose III. Not only is he a great running back, but he is also an impressive human being.

Jordy Nelson’s fantasy football collapse after week 6 was one of the most underreported stories of 2017. Nelson was unusable from that point on, with a single top-48 fantasy performance over his final nine games.

There is enough information hidden in the metrics to suggest that Nelson’s poor 2017 was more a product of Brett Hundley’s awful performance under center than it was of Nelson losing a step.

Combining his junior and senior seasons at South Dakota State, Goedert played 27 games, caught 164 passes for 2,404 yards.  His production lapped the field as he averaged 6.1 receptions per game and an incredible 18 total touchdowns.

Dallas Goedert has been flying under-the-radar, because he is part of rather lackluster tight end class. Most fantasy analysts have him going first or second in this year’s draft, along with Mike Gesicki.

The popular consensus is that to get Calvin Ridley, you’ll have to pull the trigger in the first round, but a similar player to Ridley will still be there when rounds three and four come around. His name is DaeSean Hamilton.

Both Ridley and Hamilton have three years of dominant production on their college résumés, and at age-23, have logged the requisite hours playing to position to become the NFL Draft’s signature route-running technicians. 

To put Ito Smith’s production in perspective, consider how much his college resume resembles that of this year’s rookie running back phenom, Saquon Barkley. Both were prolific runners and hungry pass catchers.

As a big fish playing in a little pond, Smith was nothing less than Barkley-esque during his time at Southern Miss. He is worth grabbing in all fantasy formats, as he is ready to make an immediate NFL impact.

The 2017 rookie tight end class produced several players who are at the very forefront of the forthcoming Tight End Renaissance that will be hitting the NFL very soon. These three first-year performers offered a hint as to what they can bring to their offenses last season.

Boasting an incredible 86th percentile Burst Score, a 94th percentile Agility Score, and 88th percentile Catch Radius, Stephen Anderson is poised to break out in 2018.  Anderson’s 13.7-percent Hog Rate was No. 7 among NFL tight ends, making him a better value than the hype-soaked Trey Burton in Chicago. 

When you draft a running back in the first round you get to see them in NFL action for a year then at that point you can decide if they are worth a long term investment. If you deem them unworthy of being a building block for your team you have a 79% chance of recouping or gaining on the value of the pick you had originally invested in them.

Running backs such as Royce Freeman are safer early-round investments in dynasty fantasy football as they maintain or increase value at a greater rate than their wide receiver counterparts.