The rich teams who use analytics are getting richer in the NFL. D.K. Metcalf cried with joy upon being drafted by the Seattle Seahawks, and Gary Jennings may outproduce him this season.
John Ursua is nothing more than a punt and kick returner. The Phil Haynes selection showed that the Seahawks are committing to protecting Russell Wilson.
Dexter Williams’ offers upper-percentile burst and agility. Then in 2018, Williams tallied 158 carries for 995 yards and 12 touchdowns. Drafted by the Green Bay Packers in the sixth round, Williams joins a relatively shallow depth chart, featuring fourth-round veteran Jamaal Williams and fifth-rounder Aaron Jones.
Ty Johnson’s 107.1 (85th-percentile) Speed Score and 7.0 (93rd-percentile) college yards per carry best-illustrated his speed was utilized on the field. Speed is always appealing to NFL organizations. However, Johnson’s production declined in back-to-back seasons.
Upon first glance, Cody Thompson’s inability to emerge to the top of the depth chart at a smaller school is troubling. However, Toledo was loaded at wide receiver in 2018. Toledo’s top three receivers are now playing in the NFL. Dionate Johnson was a third-round pick and both Cody Thompson and Jon’Vea Johnson signed as a UDFA.
At Kansas State, Alex Barnes was dominant and controlled the backfield. Barnes posted a 38.1-percent College Dominator Rating (86th-percentile) and was active in the passing game as well with 20 catches for 194 yards in 2018. His 5.3 yards per carry seems underwhelming, but he significantly outproduced other Kansas State ball carriers.
To be a potential breakout running back, we need a bell cow profile. This way, if an injury to the number one back occurs, our guy will get the majority of the workload rather than just increases in rushing-only, or passing-only, situations.
Late drafted running backs like Dexter Williams and Ty Johnson, sixth rounders, have profiles and opportunity signaling three down back potential in the NFL. Make these backs your late second and third round rookie picks in dynasty leagues.
T.Y. Hilton and A.J. Green are solid candidates in the third-round of drafts. Available as late as the end of the third round in 10-team leagues, these players give drafters a chance to take advantage of the aging-player discount.
Considering the Bengals threw the ball a modest 36.2 times per-game in 2018 (No. 20), A.J. Green is primed for a big season as the focal point of an offense with an improved philosophy.
No one needs to be told that Julio Jones is good at football. And yet, after leading the league in targets and receiving yards, Jones’ ADP went down as compared to 2018. He also had a fantastic average target distance to support that elite volume production.
Adam Humphries ranked a respectable No. 30 in fantasy points per game last year, yet is being drafted at 174.94 in FFPC ADP. Coaches in Tennessee have told reporters that Humphries is going to be a featured weapon. At first glance, one could see upside in selecting him with a mid-round pick. That is conjecture and narrative.
Parris Campbell looks the part of a versatile NFL playmaker. Hakeem Butler looks like a poor man’s Jon Baldwin.
D.K. Metcalf looks like an NFL one-hit-wonder. Andy Isabella needs to be a day-2 draft pick to be assured of an NFL breakout.
The lesson to be learned here is among the buy-low candidates each year look for draft capital, high college production, and feature size. If you have a bust on your hands or you are debating trading for one, look at those three things first.
This time of year we are inundated with what seem like 1000’s of buy-low articles or tweets. This lead me down a bit of a rabbit hole and I have a whole bunch of ADP data that tells some interesting tales.
Does Kelvin Harmon want to play with Russell Wilson in Seattle? Does Harmon believe A.J. Brown is an impressive alpha receiver?
How did Harmon develop such deep rapport with Ryan Finley? Harmon has been scouting NFL cornerbacks closely this offseason.
Tyree Jackson is a sleeper QBs in this draft class. Josh Jacobs looks the part of an elite NFL running back.
Dexter Williams is big, young and productive. What if the Kansas City Chiefs draft Bryce Love?
