There is no reason to look past Deshaun Watson on the slate (again). Aaron Jones looks like the next Alvin Kamara.
What do Alvin Kamara, David Johnson, Saquon Barkley, and Tevin Coleman all have in common? Melvin Gordon’s upside has remained capped this season.
Kyle Shanahan appears dedicated to feeding Raheem Mostert, provided that he continues to produce at the level he has of late. In what projects as a winnable game for the 49ers against Atlanta, and considering their high volume rushing attack, Mostert is an attractive start from both a volume and game script perspective. It’s time to once again take advantage of the low cost, and fire up Raheem “Must Start” for yet another week.
Both Miles Sanders and Boston Scott should see plenty of run against Washington in Week 15 considering Philadelphia’s current situation at receiver. Both Alshon Jeffrey and Nelson Agholor will miss this week’s contest, and DeSean Jackson’s season is over. For a team already missing several pass catchers, Sanders should provide plenty of upside as both a rusher and receiver.
Used in dynamic ways in San Francisco, Deebo Samuel saw eight targets and a pair of rushing attempts last week. From an efficiency perspective, Samuel owns a 1.91 (No. 8 among qualified wide receivers) Target Separation mark, creating easy pitch-and-catch opportunities for Jimmy Garoppolo. With this game total set at 48-points, Samuel provides a solid access point to this potential shootout against Atlanta.
Seemingly over his mysterious arthritic knee condition, the Rams decided to turn Todd Gurley into their bell-cow in recent weeks. He has handled at least 20 touches in each of the last two games, while averaging 79-percent of the team’s snaps since their bye. He also displayed increased efficiency with 14 missed tackles forced in the last two weeks. With Gurley finally seeing bankable volume, he remains a strong play at $6,000.
Rashaad Penny was just starting to carve out a consistent and reliable role in the Seahawks offense before tearing his ACL in Week 14. That will push Chris Carson back to a 90-percent Opportunity Share in Seattle’s backfield-centric offense. His increased Opportunity Share comes at a perfect time with the Carolina’s swiss cheese run defense next on the schedule. He will be the chalk play on both platforms.
Zach Ertz has seen double-digit targets in four of the last five games. He has finished among the top-three tight ends in all four contests, and as the overall TE1 three times. Ertz leads all tight ends in targets and receptions and is top-three in yards, Target Distance, Completed Air Yards, and Fantasy Points Per Game. Ertz, Dallas Goedert and the running backs will continue to be the featured targets for Carson Wentz against Washington.
While some people are doubting who will fill the role that Mike Evans left behind, anyone that has perused PlayerProfiler knows it will be Justin Watson. His advanced metrics indicate he is the real deal, and he now has the opportunity to prove it. Don’t be afraid of the first-round bust, Breshad Perriman, or the undersized slot receiver, Scott Miller.
Patrick Laird is here to stay. He saw a season-high 19 touches against a stout Jets front, turning in 82 yards. His 33-percent Juke Rate over the last two weeks indicates that he’s creating yards on his own and that he’s primed to explode in good matchups. Well, a good matchup is finally here, with the Dolphins facing a Giants defense that has been gashed in every phase.
Despite Pete Carroll’s assurance that Tyler Lockett ($6,900) is “back to full strength,” call the masses skeptical. After burning through the first half of the season, he failed to reach 10 DraftKings points in each of his past four games. It’s obvious his ailments have contributed to his struggles. Still, he’s always one play away from breaking a slate.
Darius Slayton quietly took over the No. 1 wide receiver role for the Giants this season with Sterling Shepard missing seven games so far. Keep an eye on projections and fade him if he eclipses 15-percent ownership, but he has immense upside in a dream matchup against a team allowing an explosive pass play rate of 12-percent, tied for third-most in the NFL.
Josh Gordon vs. David Moore: Who is the more athletic Seattle Seahawks back-up wide receiver? Nate somehow touted Kalen Ballage who set an NFL record as the only running back to average less than 2.0 yards per carry with 60 or more carries.
What was D.K. Metcalf thinking on draft day? Why J.J. Arcega-Whiteside is not happening.
This is a great week for Todd Gurley to turn things around with his volume trending in the right direction recently. He’s not the first-round pick and mega-contract back that the Rams chose, but he’ll do this week at $6,000 on DraftKing. He is a cheap back seeing a lot of volume in a great game for fantasy purposes. Fire him up this week as a throwback to a time when he was actually a top running back.
Justin Watson was a prolific college producer before most players had completed Intro to Organic Chemistry, and his age-adjusted production is a major green flag for upcoming NFL production. If he takes over even a moderate portion of Mike Evans’ vacated volume, he’ll be a great play this week. As a cheap option on DraftKings, this is a spot where being ahead of the curve will provide a massive edge.
After enduring “load management” to start the season, Todd Gurley looks like Los Angeles’ bell-cow back moving forward. He continues to operate in one of fantasy’s friendliest roles. In just the last two weeks, he has 12 red zone touches. Facing a Dallas team that allowed back-to-back 100-plus yard games to the Bills and Bears, Gurley is a solid option heading into the fantasy playoffs.
With Mike Evans likely to miss the remainder of 2019, Justin Watson stepped up in a major way for the Buccaneers. After Evans played only 23.4-percent of Tampa Bay’s snaps, Watson recorded a 55-percent Snap Share. On his increased playing time, he notched five catches for 59 yards and a score on eight targets. With Tampa Bay leading the NFL in pass attempts, Watson projects to play a pivotal role for the Buccaneers down the stretch.
As much as people want Aaron Rodgers to still be an every-week QB1, he just isn’t that guy anymore. He’s too volatile and match-up-dependent. At this point, we know who Rodgers is. He’s an elite game-manager with the ability to take advantage of poor defenses. Unfortunately, he plays against a Chicago team that is fifth-best in limiting quarterbacks in Week 15.
Like Saquon Barkley and Alvin Kamara, Leonard Fournette also disappointed with a high-touch share. Even with 15 carries and six targets, he only gained 63 yards. Also like Barkley, Fournette’s 89.4-percent (No. 3 among qualified running backs) Opportunity Share is massive. This week he plays against the Raiders, who give up 2.26 fantasy points above the mean (No. 8) to opposing running backs.
