Mining for Cheap Wide Receiver Dynasty Breakouts – Part 2
by James Vitucci, March 18, 2020Tre’Quan Smith clears nearly every statistical benchmark for a breakout candidate while remaining dirt cheap. He was drafted before Pick 101, landing him on the more favorable earlier pick curve for Year 3 receivers. Smith is still only 23 years old, weighs 210-pounds, has a 19.2 (86th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) Breakout Age, a two-year average of 9.55 yards per target (No. 5 of the non-breakout sample of 51) and a strong two-year 37-percent Slot Rate average.
A small percentage of Allen Lazard’s pre-draft critique may end up having validity. He had a 7.7-percent (No. 22) Drop Rate in 2019. Regardless, his strong age-adjusted college production in spite of his apparent lack of athletic and character traits, speaks to the absurdity of his going undrafted. His 17 targets over his final two games of 2019 speaks to his ability to carve out a meaningful role in the Packers offense despite his unjustifiably low draft capital.