Results for: ""

Van Jefferson’s inability to take part in the athletic drills at the Combine means that we have only his college production to judge him by. To be frank, it’s not great. Film grinders have long been a fan, complimenting him on his many pro worthy traits. His route-running ability chief among them. He may well be a route-running savant, but the fact remains that he will be 24 years old when the 2020 season begins and spent four years in college.

The 2020 wide receiver draft class is, as has been mentioned on countless occasions across countless platforms, historically deep. Therefore, there’s a strong likelihood that teams that miss out early may look to correct this in the later rounds. Jefferson’s route running skills, allied to NFL pedigree, should certainly see him taken. Though an awful lot would have to go right for him, and wrong for other players, for him to emerge as a fantasy-relevant contributor at the NFL level.

Many viewed Justin Jefferson as an average to above-average athlete before the Combine. He ran a 4.43 40-Yard Dash, which is in the 86th-percentile among qualified wide receivers. This translate to a 104.9 (83rd-percentile) Speed Score. Not only that, but his 37.5-inch Vertical Jump and 126-inch Broad Jump give him a 126.8 (80th-percentile) Burst Score. This enables him to get a quick release before using his impressive speed to gain separation and get open.

Jefferson’s size and crisp route running remind many people of Keenan Allen and Tyler Boyd. Fortunately, Jefferson is a much faster and more explosive version of both. His Best Comparable Player is a best-case scenario in the legendary Reggie Wayne. Like Wayne before him, Jefferson is a projected first round NFL Draft pick. As such, he finds himself locked into the Top 3 on PlayerProfiler’s rookie wide receiver rankings. 

Bryan Edwards recorded a 17.8 Breakout Age, 100th-percentile among qualified wide receivers and the second-best score in the entire PlayerProfiler database. Only CeeDee Lamb had more yards in his freshman season among incoming rookie wideouts. More impressively, he did this in the SEC, maintaining or improving upon his production every year. Because he was a young senior, he’s still the 11th-youngest wideout in this rookie class despite playing four years of college football.

Regardless of his athleticism, Edwards checks every important analytical box as a wide receiver prospect. Despite the presence of both Hayden Hurst and Deebo Samuel, Edwards logged 44 catches for 590 receiving yards as a freshman and tied for the team lead with four receiving touchdowns. He never fell below any of those thresholds, averaging a 29.6-percent Dominator Rating over four college seasons.

Despite Albert Okwuegbunam not knocking it out of the park in 2019, his profile is fantastic. He has an ideal 6-6, 258-pound frame that translates to an ideal 29.8 Body Mass Index. He’s the fourth-fastest tight end in the entire PlayerProfiler database. Okwuegbunam was also productive in college with an early 19.4 (91st-percentile among qualified tight ends) Breakout Age. His 31.2-percent (90th-percentile) College Dominator Rating is among the best in the PlayerProfiler database.

Although Okwuegbunam has an incomplete athletic profile, everything on it indicates that this size-speed specimen deserves more recognition. Many have pegged him as a Day 2 pick at best, although his measurables and production indicate otherwise. Many will throw out the “injury concerns” narrative, but there’s no denying that he is a first-round talent. Therefore, Albert O will slip in many rookie dynasty drafts, and there isn’t a better feeling than getting a supreme talent at a discount.

K.J. Hamler enters the NFL draft as a black-box prospect. He tweaked his hamstring before the Combine and failed to partake in all but one of the drills. His plan to test at his Pro Day was also shelved because of the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, the only athletic testing number we have for him is 15: the amount of times he lifted 225 pounds on the bench press. Much of his success at the NFL level is dependent upon elite-level speed.

The only thing clear about Hamler’s profile is his elite 19.2 (87th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) Breakout Age and big play ability, including his special teams prowess. His 16.1 (71st-percentile) college yards per reception gives credence to his perceived elite speed. Though he’s a risky rookie pick, his age-adjusted college production makes him a worthy gamble towards the back half of the second round in rookie drafts in the event he has elite speed.

From an efficiency perspective, Jalen Hurts also ranks among the elite prospects in this class. He not only posted an 18.1 Breakout Age, 100th-percentile among qualified quarterbacks, he also managed an 89.7 (95th-percentile) College QBR. Improving matters further, his 11.3 (98th-percentile) College YPA ranks near the top of the class. Already productive, he subsequently ran a 4.59 (95th-percentile) 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine.

Looking to the Draft, multiple sources point to Hurts coming off the board early on Day 2. Lamar Jackson easily posted the top fantasy season among quarterbacks with 1,206 rushing yards and six touchdowns. While Hurts isn’t Lamar Jackson, other run-first signal callers such as Tyrod Taylor have shown fantasy relevance in the past. Ultimately, Hurts needs draft capital and the proper landing spot, but a fantasy viable future remains firmly in his range of outcomes.

Lamical Perine has the body of a potential three-down back at 5-11 and 216-pounds. Perine never explodes by or jukes defenders in his game tape. He operates like a bulldozer, moving the pile of linemen and rarely avoiding it. His advanced workout metrics bear that out given his 11.44 (46th-percentile among qualified running backs) Agility Score and 118.5 (48th-percentile) Burst Score. His 94.8 (44th-percentile) Speed Score isn’t a death knell for his career hopes, but there is truly little in his profile to be excited about.

Most notable on Perine’s profile are his 40 receptions recorded last season. Much like Pierre Thomas and T.J. Yeldon, two of his Best Comparable Players, He sports a satellite back skill set but is trapped in a lumbering grinder’s body. He fails to crack the Top 15 running backs in PlayerProfiler’s rookie rankings. Because he will garner Day 3 NFL draft capital at best, he is nothing more than a fourth-round flyer in rookie drafts.

It’s hard to find a team that was more hyped than the 2019 Cleveland Browns. They had Baker Mayfield coming off of a historic rookie season, a shiny new alpha receiver in Odell Beckham and, most importantly, they didn’t have Hue Jackson. This offense was primed to put up video game numbers and win fantasy championships, but everything came crashing down. While John Dorsey was sure to stock Mayfield’s cupboard with dynamic weapons, he did so at the expense of the offensive line.

Mayfield was one of the best quarterback prospects of all time, finishing in the 97th-percentile or better in College QBR, YPA, and Breakout Age. We saw what he is capable of during his prolific rookie season. Everyone loves to put the Browns down, and his sophomore slump drove down the price of everyone on this team. For sharps, this creates an ideal buying opportunity. Given the improvements they have made in the offseason, Mayfield and the Browns will bounce back.

Countless hours of research, number crunching and film grinding go into optimizing our fantasy teams and lineups. Yet players such as Darius Slayton continue to rise from relative obscurity to post fantasy-relevant rookie seasons. Though these players should be celebrated, the focus immediately shifts finding the “next” of these preexisting archetypes that now exist. While Quez Watkins is a candidate to be this year’s Day 3, Slayton-level dark horse, John Hightower belongs in the conversation.

It goes without question that Hightower has a long, uphill climb towards Day 3 draft pick status and subsequent fantasy football relevancy. Though he never recorded the aesthetically-pleasing 1,000-yard receiving season, he acquitted himself admirably given his circumstances. Still, the elite-level speed and special teams skills he’s shown us to this point are translatable at the next level. He’s a locked-in Top 25 receiver prospect, and a potential late-round rookie draft steal.

If there is one position in the NFL for which a lack of production at the college level does not immediately send out danger signs, it would be the tight end spot. There have been many instances over the years of players who played hardly a down of college football, or not a single one in some cases, that have gone on to be dominant performers at the NFL level. The fact that Stephen Sullivan did not put up gaudy numbers at LSU should not immediately mark him as one set to fail at the next level. Especially when one considers his stellar athletic profile.

It is more likely than not that Sullivan will have to wait to be drafted in the NFL Draft. He is certainly more athletic than some of the other leading members of this draft class, but he has played tight end for one year and was hardly a full-time player in that year. There is much he still has to learn about the position. As such, he’s not a player that I would advise aggressively targeting in rookie drafts.