Justin Jefferson Rookie Profile and Fantasy Football Outlook

by Marc Mathyk ·

It’s common knowledge that the 2020 wide receiver class is chock full of talent. CeeDee Lamb and Jerry Jeudy are in their own tier at the top. After that, many fantasy analysts start to differ in opinion. Justin Jefferson is usually in the second tier, but is usually hanging out in the middle of it for some reason. However, he should be ranked higher based on size, athleticism and production.

Before the 2020 NFL Combine, many feared that Jefferson would be too slight. Already thought of as a sub-200-pound player, some believed he might even dip under 190-pounds. He erased all doubt in Mobile, coming in at 6-1 and 202-pounds. This is significant because his Body Mass Index (BMI) is above the 26.0 threshold. Many believe that next to draft capital, a wide receiver’s BMI measurement is among the most predictive metrics for success.

Justin Jefferson Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile w/ College Stats

With his size concerns erased, Jefferson’s strong athletic profile has kept him in the late-first/early-second round conversation. Receivers drafted in the first two rounds have increased chances at success. Many viewed Jefferson as an average to above-average athlete before the Combine. He ran a 4.43 40-Yard Dash, which is in the 86th-percentile among qualified wide receivers. This translate to a 104.9 (83rd-percentile) Speed Score. Not only that, but his 37.5-inch Vertical Jump and 126-inch Broad Jump give him a 126.8 (80th-percentile) Burst Score. This enables him to get a quick release before using his impressive speed to gain separation and get open. Unfortunately, it is difficult to know if Jefferson is agile since he didn’t perform in the agility drills.

Check out Justin Jefferson on PlayerProfiler’s Updated Rookie Rankings:

To go along with size and athleticism, Jefferson has a productive college resume. After his redshirt freshman season, he led the LSU Tigers as a sophomore. He had 54 receptions for 875 yards, averaging 16.2 yards per reception on a subpar offense. It wasn’t until 2019, when Joe Burrow emerged as the country’s best quarterback, that Jefferson saw a significant bump in production. He had 111 receptions, tied for the most in the country with SMU’s James Proche. His 1,554 yards and 18 touchdowns were third-best and second-best respectively in Division I. Many are still a bit lukewarm on him because sophomore teammate Ja’Marr Chase overshadowed him. Chase had the most yards and touchdowns of all Division I receivers. This helps explains Jefferson’s prosaic 30.0-percent (51st-percentile) College Dominator Rating. Burrow simply had an arsenal stacked with talent.

Jefferson’s size and crisp route running remind many people of Keenan Allen and Tyler Boyd. Not bad comparisons considering that both have been dependable fantasy receivers for the last few seasons. The better news is that Jefferson is a much faster and more explosive version of both. His Best Comparable Player is a best-case scenario in the legendary Reggie Wayne. Like Wayne before him, Jefferson is a projected first round NFL Draft pick. As such, he finds himself locked into the Top 3 on PlayerProfiler’s rookie wide receiver rankings.