Results for: ""

You want Weighted Opportunities. You want target after target funneled to your running back. Last year David Johnson had 160.4 (No. 26 among qualified running backs) Weighted Opportunities. If any of the three Texans running backs take opportunities away, it will be those of the low weighted opportunities. If they use him the same way they used him in Weeks 15-17, we may see an efficiency explosion.

High-scoring offenses typically house the running backs we desire most in fantasy, especially in the first two rounds. However, there are outliers such as David Montgomery, James Robinson, and Antonio Gibson. But are they really outliers? 30-percent of the running backs inside the top 15 were on bottom-10 offenses. Seems it might be better to be on a bad offense and be a focal point, than be in a mediocre offense and be a secondary or tertiary piece. 

Myles Gaskin flashed his PPR ability in Week 1 and beyond with 16.4 (No. 10 among qualified running backs) Fantasy Points Per Game through 10 games. Although he struggled with efficiency, evidenced by his 5.3 (No. 20) Yards Per Touch and +0.9 (No. 38) Production Premium, he lacks much competition in the Miami backfield outside of Salvon Ahmed. Fantasy managers going with a zero-RB type build should target him at his ADP.

In eight games in 2020, Antonio Brown ranked inside the top-24 at wide receiver with a 14.6 (No. 23) Fantasy Points Per Game average. Will Tom Brady continue to pass a ton heading into his 22nd season? Sure, and the Underdog ADP of 79.9 makes Brown the 33rd WR off the board. If the passing opportunities remain high, he can exceed his ADP and provide WR2 type numbers more often than not.

Carson Wentz’ injury provides the perfect excuse for the Colts to toss the 2021 season, maintain the roster, and look forward to 2022. Jacob Eason is projected to begin the season as the starting quarterback, and Wentz’ chance of having an efficient 2021 plummets. Even when he returns, there’s a strong chance his foot injury affects his footwork and mechanics. This is a serious problem when banking on a strong bounceback to his once-MVP form. This season is lost for Colts, and fantasy expectations should be throttled across the board.

T.Y. Hilton’s ADP will freefall due to his age, but he still offers a decent fantasy floor. He can be a “safe” late teens pick in Best Ball. For redraft leagues, his lack of upside makes him a soft Flex option. The chance of a Michael Pittman breakout puts his workload at risk, and poor offensive efficiency lowers his touchdown upside. Hilton should be valued as a fringe WR6 with many reasons to see a decline. Don’t bet on a full on breakout for Pittman this year, but expect him to eat into Hilton’s workload.

How much will Jacob Eason bring down Colts receiver values? No first team reps for Trey Lance???

Lamar Jackson has had COVID twice. J.K. Dobbins capitalizing on Gus Edwards missed practice time?

Adam Gase was a poor head coach. He has a proven record of misusing and suppressing fantasy football production for running backs and wide receivers. His shortcomings further express themselves behind the scenes with poor player management. The “Gase Effect” certainly matters when considering actual NFL outcomes. However, there is no reason to believe a player can break out solely because Gase is no longer their coach.

The New York Jets have been historically bad for decades. Adam Gase was unfortunate enough to enter the fray at organizational rock bottom. Gase entered the Big Apple at the tail end of the Mike Maccagnan era. Maccagnan proved to be an all-time dud at general manager, resulting in college level rosters for Gase in 2019 and 2020. The Jets allowed their bust GM to run the entire 2019 offseason before firing him and bringing in Joe Douglas. Gase was left to carry the bag for a roster devoid of talent.

Of all of the Day 2 running backs drafted by teams that traded up since 2011, Javonte Williams was the highest-drafted running back (Pick No. 35). And he’s in excellent company. The sweet spot for NFL Draft trade-up running backs is the top half of the second round. If you had doubts about Williams because he’s currently in a timeshare with Melvin Gordon, remember that Alvin Kamara had to split time with Mark Ingram and Adrian Peterson in his electric rookie season.

The 49ers trading up for Trey Sermon should mean they plan to utilize him at least in a part-time role. Three of the five running backs (60-percent) drafted in the bottom half of the third round by teams that traded up saw at least 115 touches. For comparison, only four of the other 10 running backs (40-percent) drafted in the bottom half of the third round exceeded that mark. Sermon joins an elusive club of third-round running backs that teams traded back INTO the third round to acquire.

Where should Darrell Henderson be drafted? With Akers out, will there be more attempts for Matthew Stafford?

Should Sean Payton turn the offense over to Taysom Hill? Aaron Jones is the big winner from Aaron Rodgers’ return.

By weighting Catchable Target Rate by Average Target Distance, we see different WRs who are in similar per-target situations for scoring fantasy points. Cooper Kupp has a remarkably high 83.2-percent (No. 17 among qualified wide receivers) Catchable Target Rate. Those targets came with a 6.6 (No. 103) Average Target Distance. He is likely to convert his targets into receptions. From a fantasy perspective, each individual reception is not generating significant fantasy point-scoring opportunity.

Conversely, Mike Williams has a low 65.9-percent (No. 100) Catchable Target Rate on a 14.8 (No. 9) Average Target Distance. He’s not nearly as likely to catch every target he receives, but when he does, they are likely to generate more fantasy points due to being deeper down the field. Those deeper receptions rack up more yards and more touchdowns. He and Kupp play differently, but their per-target opportunity is the same through the lens of Target Quality Rating.

The Lions decided to let all of their wide receivers walk in free agency this year and look to let Jared Goff suffer for his sins. T.J. Hockenson is set to explode in his third NFL season. Best Comparable to superstar Travis Kelce due to his impressive workout metrics, Hockenson is in prime position to capitalize on the lack of competition around him and become the player he was drafted to be at No. 8 overall in 2019.

Ja’Marr Chase has come to Cincinnati and will immediately demand the most targets on this team in the post-A.J. Green era. The biggest question for the Bengals is whether they will be able to sustain fantasy production for their three notable wide receivers: Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd. It’s no secret that Joe Burrow likes to sling it, and with an offense full of pass catchers, it doesn’t seem like sustaining Chase, Higgins, and Boyd (in that order) would be a tall task.

Why New Orleans is still paying Drew Brees and needs a new credit card. Why Howie Roseman needs to focus on the finances and stop drafting wide receivers like Jalen Reagor.

Detroit is rebuilding the right way around future All Pro Penei Sewell. The Bengals and Ja’Marr Chase and are moving in the right direction while the Steelers and Najee Harris are moving in the wrong direction.