Taysom Hill just became the favorite to start the season under center for the New Orleans Saints. Adam Trautman is surging for all the right reasons.
Cam Akers knows Terrell Suggs came back from a torn Achilles the same season. Why the Texans should trade Deshaun Watson.
Football is a grueling sport to predict, and this is where stacking enters the fold. Stacking allows us to limit how many different variables we have to get correct each week. In a sport where so many variables are outside our control, it’s nice to only need to root for one team’s offense to succeed to ensure that two or more players enter our best ball lineup with spike weeks.
Stacking is not the only way to succeed in fantasy football, you can of course just pick the right players. However, player-centric analysis is difficult, comes with large error bars, and is extremely time-consuming. The beauty of stacking is that you don’t even need to do much player research. You can just focus on stacking players from teams you expect to pass a lot.
In fantasy terms, we should be targeting players that command a large share of their teams’ targets. But be warned, not all Target Shares are created equal. It is important that we look at a team’s total pass volume to provide greater context when it comes to appreciating how much work a pass-catcher will get.
Target Rate is another stat that can sound impressive in of itself. But when used in concert with other stats and metrics, it can be used to push up players that really don’t need to be in our thoughts when it comes to fantasy football. It’s a nice conversation starter if you want to talk to your mates about how much more work Braxton Berrios should have got in 2020. But those conversations are, I hope, rare.
What can those of us who spent early draft capital on Cam Akers, or that have him on their dynasty teams, do at the moment? Today we look to recent history for guidance to see how teams have fared when losing star RB talent either before or very early in a season and try to apply that to the Rams’ and our fantasy teams’ situations.
If you are considering dealing for Darrell Henderson in trade or haven’t drafted yet, his price will reflect production levels that history suggests he is not likely to reach. And looking beyond the current Rams roster for potential trade candidates is a lottery ticket. Placing one or more of those on our roster means filling our bench with long shots unlikely to put up numbers anywhere close to what we were expecting from a healthy 2021 Akers.
Damien Harris has a big role tee’d up. Tony Pollard and Zack Moss are ongoing values in dynasty.
Tyler Lockett and Curtis Samuel have contract security. Michael Gallup will either escape or thrive in Dallas.
Following a full reconstructive surgery, Michael Thomas should be good as new following a full rehabilitation. In dynasty, he is a clear hold and a possible buy on the other end. If you’re a shareholder, keep calm and keep those diamond hands steady. His stock will rebound when he’s back in the lineup mid-season gathering targets like a squirrel preparing for winter. Then, you can decide whether it’s in your best interest to sell.
It’s tough for anyone to break through significantly on any sort of consistent basis when Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara are gobbling up 250-plus targets every season and the rest of the depth chart is muddled. Tre’Quan Smith’s disappearance last season should be a concern, but there’s solace in knowing he’s shown the capability of breaking through in a major way. This alone is why fantasy gamers need to be prioritizing him this season.
Jamaal Williams is not getting anyone off D’Andre Swift. Zack Moss is locked into a primary back role.
Where will Zach Ertz sign this offseason? When will Trey Lance, Justin Fields and Mac Jones start games?
Despite a shallow target depth, Curtis Samuel averaged 2.18 (No. 12 among qualified wide receivers) Fantasy Points Per Target with a +32.0-percent (No. 3) Target Premium. He specialized in taking low-depth targets and turning upfield, and he was highly efficient for fantasy last season. His high Target Premium, QB upgrade, rushing ability, and chance for increased opportunity give him value at his current ADP.
Marvin Jones has hit the wrong side of 30, but is still productive and established, evidenced by last year’s +15.4-percent (No. 21) Target Premium and 1.98 (No. 27) Fantasy Points Per Target average. Jones will become a favorite of Trevor Lawrence with his ability to make contested catches, especially on Deep Balls. His proven efficiency and high veteran floor make him a great value grab at his late ADP.
Royce Freeman is similar to James Conner. Rondale Moore could go nuclear in Arizona.
Wayne Gallman is an intriguing stash. Qadree Ollison is an injury away from being a free square.
Real-time trades talks involving Gabriel Davis, Deshaun Watson, Jalen Reagor, and Tony Pollard. Ke’Shawn Vaughn is breaking hearts.
Mac Jones is channeling Tom Brady. The New York Media Machine is propping up Elijah Moore’s fantasy ADP.
