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If you’ve spent any time on fantasy football Twitter, you’ve seen the Elijah Moore hype. He is a fantastic route runner, extremely quick, has great hands, put up insane college production, and is being praised more and more by Jets camp every day. In his final year in college, Moore had two drops on 102 targets, and his 86 receptions in eight games broke A.J. Brown’s single season record at Ole Miss.

Chris Evans has a great 132.4 (94th-percentile among qualified running backs) Burst Score and 10.99 (92nd-percentile) Agility Score, and he can be used on third downs. He’s also a part of an offense which is trending upwards. At best, I’m hoping he can be a Giovani Bernard-lite over the next few years and provide depth, but players being drafted here are all long shots to ever become relevant.

The data shows that the hit rate for RBs with first round ADPs is strong. Since 2016, 64-percent of RBs with first round ADPs finished as top-12 fantasy backs, and 25-percent finished in the top-3. Every top-3 RB since 2016 scored over 300 fantasy points for their respective season. The juice is worth the squeeze, especially in a shallow format such as the ESPN PPR default leagues.

Hero RB strategy lends well to drafting a top RB because it gives gamers the best chance to get a stable RB1 or a game changing top-3 RB. Drafting two RBs with first round ADPs is viable in shallow formats like ESPN PPR default. It’s possible to spend 50-percent of your total budget on two RBs with first round ADPs and still construct a winning roster. Hitting on both of RBs puts you on cruise control to the playoffs.

With foot injuries to Carson Wentz and All-Pro left guard Quenton Nelson, Jonathan Taylor’s ADP dropped from a first-round pick to an Underdog ADP nearing the middle of the second round. However, I’ll provide data to back up why Taylor can still finish as an RB1 in 2021. Is his situation much different from 2020 with Wentz versus Philip Rivers? Taylor provided efficient production on the ground last season, but can he replicate that and add in receiving work? We’ll answer those questions and more to help us decide whether we should value him as an RB1 in 2021. 

Jonathan Taylor displayed the ability to provide efficient production in the rushing and receiving game. He ranked inside the top-8 in rushing FPOE. Amongst those eight backs, only two finished with a higher receiving efficiency: Alvin Kamara and Dalvin Cook. Expect Taylor’s receiving efficiency to improve in 2021, which could translate into a near career-best season. Quenton Nelson and Carson Wentz should return sometime during the season, but Nelson looks like the most helpful piece.

Why a Davante Adams – Calvin Ridley – Amari Cooper is an attractive start to PPR fantasy drafts. D’Andre Swift is slipping into the fourth round.

Alvin Kamara’s situation has deteriorated dramatically. Tony Pollard is less attractive in best ball leagues.

Why Amari Cooper should go before CeeDee Lamb. Aaron Jones is an early first round lock.

The risks of drafting Saquon Barkley. Jonathan Taylor has a high floor and high ceiling.

Calvin Ridley was a fully-formed professional at Alabama. D.J. Moore was the perfect WR upside play.

Gardner Minshew looks like a Patrick Mahomes stunt double. Rick Spielman is the most underrated GM in the NFL.

Josh Allen joins Patrick Mahomes and Dak Prescott as QBs making over $40 million per year. Once QBs sign their big post-rookie contracts, the clock starts to tick for their teams. How long will Buffalo’s window for competing remain open? Can they win a Super Bowl before Allen’s cap hit skyrockets? Is his extension a team-friendly contract? How does this affect Lamar Jackson’s extension talks?

The Bills were a top AFC team last season and have improved in three consecutive years. I don’t see that changing in the next three. If it does change, it won’t be because Allen’s contract crippled the team’s salary cap. On the contrary, his extension allows Buffalo to extend their Super Bowl window all the way out to 2024 and keep or add key pieces.

True ‘upside’ is most effectively captured by making positive assumptions in ambiguous situations. Tournaments are won on the tails of your range of outcomes, and the easiest way to maximize your tail is to increase your variance. When looking for a league-breaking stack, we should search for stacks with as many factors of uncertainty built into their price as possible. These stacks have the most room to crush their ADP because the range between their ceiling and floor outcomes is widest.

Chase Claypool was by far the most efficient Steelers receiver on a per-route and per-target basis. If he is entrusted with a full-time role in 2021, it is quite conceivable he outhits his WR26 ADP by a wide margin, and drags Ben Roethlisberger to a more efficient 2021 season. If Roethlisberger provides round 10-12 value as your QB2 drafted in round 16, you benefit from your stack crushing ADP.

Michael Carter likely has a defined role with the Jets, where he will get a fair share of touches and passing down work. In a timeshare or ambiguous backfield, I like to grab the running back with pass-catching ability. If the team projects to pass a lot (either philosophically or due to not being good), that player will be on the field and won’t be game-scripted out of opportunities. Carter has a better chance to be a solid RB2 in 2021 because of his likely participation on passing downs.

According to David Lombardi at The Athletic, Trey Sermon will be used to “soften defenses” as a way to keep Raheem Mostert healthy. He believes that Sermon will start most games but Mostert will lead the team in rushing yards. This does not sound like a league-winning-upside situation that fantasy gamers are looking for in the middle rounds of their drafts. It sounds more like a situation where the young guy is being used to sacrifice his body so that the veteran can shine.

The A.J. Brown train was full steam ahead prior to the Julio Jones news. While the move does slightly hinder his 2021 upside, you’d be crazy to predict a volume decrease for one of the league’s most prolific pass catchers. Brown is the three-legged alpha. When it comes to vacated targets, you should always chase the talent. Alphas eat first. With AJB already earning an elite Target Share, don’t be surprised when he stockpiles 140 targets. 

T.J. Hockenson’s skillset perfectly fits that of Jared Goff, who prefers to throw shallow passes and let his pass catchers do the grunt work after the catch. The Lions have no true alpha at the wide receiver position. Hockenson is their alpha. If you’re keeping track, that makes his situation similar to Darren Waller’s last season. I’m not calling 140 targets. I am calling that Hockenson will be the bonafide go-to target for this offense, and the first read on many plays.