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Air Yards DFS Value Index – Week 12 – Thanksgiving Edition

by Edward DeLauter, November 24, 2021

Darnell Mooney took full advantage of the injury related absence of Allen Robinson (DK: $5,100) in Week 11. Mooney saw a team-high 16 targets, which was one less target that everyone else on the team combined. He also saw 219 Air Yards and was able to capitalize on this immense opportunity despite only catching five passes. Mooney finished as the WR4 on the week with 23.1 fantasy points. At only $5,700, he would enter chalk play territory if Robinson is force to miss the game against Detroit and their exploitable secondary.

Emmanuel Sanders posted another dud last week against the Colts scoring only 5.6 fantasy points. Considering his performance so far this season, its best to chalk up his Week 11 opportunities as a fluke. Sanders has seen 100 Air Yards or more in half of the games he played this season, and setting last weeks performance aside on the cooling rack, Sanders has seen at least 78 Air Yards per game. His 17.4 Average Target Distance will make him volatile however he should a mainstay in tournament lineups.

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Back to Basics: Mike Gesicki = THE Dynasty TE1?

by Seth Diewold, November 24, 2021

The tight end throne has been taken for quite some time because Travis Kelce is the undisputed tight end champion of the world. All the talk at the beginning of the 2021 season was between tight ends T.J. Hockenson, Darren Waller, George Kittle, maybe Kyle Pitts, and of course Kelce. Mike Gesicki was so far down that he was an afterthought TE. The truth is Gesicki is now the number one contender for the TE 1 crown. Don’t make the mistake of upgrading him too slowly like many fantasy analysts do.

My prediction is Mike Gesicki will gradually fall down the ranks this year as Miami’s quarterback struggles will continue. He will finish anywhere from No. 5 to No. 10 in fantasy scoring, but his ADP won’t reflect his true upside. My guess is next year he will be overshadowed by players like T.J. Hockenson, Kyle Pitts, Darren Waller, Mark Andrews, and of course Travis Kelce. However, Gesicki will be the best value tight end drafted, and has a good chance to be the best tight end in fantasy football.

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Matchup Monitor: Week 12 Thanksgiving Edition

by Aditya Fuldeore, November 23, 2021

Before week 11, Sanders had a 7.9-percent (No. 5 among qualifying RBs before Week 11) Breakaway Run Rate and a 61.1-percent (No. 15) Snap Share. The Eagles have run the ball more in the second half of the season, with at least 30 rush attempts each of their last five games, so Sanders is slated to see more opportunity. The Giants have allowed at least 100 yards rushing to opponents in five of their last seven games this season (with 97 rush yards given up in Week 11).

Despite entering week 11 with an 80-percent (No. 8 among qualifying TEs before Week 11) Snap Share on a team averaging 38.0 (No. 9) Pass Plays per Game, Tyler Conklin averages less than 10.0 Fantasy Points Per Game, outside the top-10 TEs. Behind Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson, the Vikings’ pass game becomes murky. While Conklin gets his share of targets, he does not produce enough to be a weekly start in leagues with 10 or less teams. The 49ers have allowed more than 40 receiving yards to opposing TEs just once since Week 1. Conklin is in for a rough matchup.

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Week 12 Waiver Wire Watchlist

by Theo Gremminger, November 23, 2021

Michael Carter is out for at least two weeks. Ty Johnson split time with Tevin Coleman, but outsnapped him last week. Expect Johnson to see an even larger share of the RB work this week. We have already seen his ability as a receiver with three games of five receptions or more. Treat him as a high end RB3/flex play this week.  

Marquez Valdes-Scantling led the Packers with 10 targets this past weekend, including a 75-yard TD grab. He finished with 123 yards receiving and has a plus matchup this week as Green Bay faces off in a potentially high-scoring game with the Rams. MVS can be frustrating at times, but he has big-play potential and can be started if you need a flex with upside.  

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Week 11 MNF Showdown: New York Giants At Tampa Bay Buccaneers

by Matt Babich, November 22, 2021

The New York Giants simply don’t deserve to be on Primetime TV. Daniel Jones is an erradic mess, and has struggled to get the ball to playmakers Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney. The offense looks to turn things around with Saquon Barkley hopeful to return to the lineup.

Tampa Bay is in a slump, but the Giants are the perfect get-right opponent. Tom Brady is still racking up elite production and helping Mike Evans and Chris Godwin have solid seasons. Leonard Fournette has blossomed as a bell-cow, racking up 15 fantasy point performances. The Bucs looks to gain Rob Gronkowski back to the slew of playmakers. =

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Lessons Learned – Week 11

by Al Scherer, November 22, 2021

If you think back to training camp, a different Elijah was the talk of the NFL town. It was the Jets’ Elijah Moore, with one of the most impressive college metrics profiles you’ll find; Start him every week. It doesn’t matter who’s at QB or if the Jets lose out. He’s the team’s best receiver and will someday be their first Pro Bowl receiver this century.

Enjoy watching this generation’s most complete, exciting running back. I hope you followed PlayerProfiler and Breakout Finder’s Advice and selected Jonathan Taylor at 1.01 in last year’s dynasty rookie drafts. If you followed the herd and went Clyde Edwards-Helaire instead, don’t say we didn’t warn you!

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The Infirmary Report – Week 11

by The “Mad Chatter” Ryan MK, November 21, 2021

This is another one of those, “don’t rest on your laurels” check points. The payoff to the grind of it all is in sight. And in a week with a blank IR room and only the Rams and Broncos on BYE, there is still much to discuss. With both good news and bad, The Infirmary is here to provide the essentials for fantasy managers.

Rashod Bateman is primed for a big game with Marquise Brown sitting out. He’s seen a 27.7 percent Target Rate since entering the lineup, good for No. 17 at the position. Not to mention, he’s facing off against the No. 26-ranked pass defense. The Bucs will be without Antonio Brown again, and face Tom Brady’s nemesis- the New York Football Giants. This offense needs to step it up. Speaking of the G-Men, they’ll be without Sterling Shepard. Once again, it’s Kadarius Toney time.

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Back to Basics: Michael Carter is a League Winner

by Marc Nuzzo, November 21, 2021

Over the last several weeks, there has been a steady increase in Michael Carter’s routes run and Snap Share, which says that the Jets are beginning to use him as a bell cow, a role that will expand as the season progresses and as he gets more experience. The Jets are an abysmal team and will continue to find themselves in negative Game Scripts, which will lead to more targets for Carter in the passing game.

If you didn’t draft Michael Carter, it might be too late to trade for him. However, he had an okay game against the Colts and Bills, so you still have a chance to buy. When that time comes, ask for him as a sweetener in a deal for another buy low target. You want Carter on your roster. Go out and get him, and go win some leagues.

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Border Battle – Week 11: Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

by Jared Michelizzi, November 20, 2021

One of the longest-standing rivalries in Professional Football is affectionately referred to as THE BORDER BATTLE. The Green Bay Packers are heading into Minnesota to face the Vikings with both teams coming off wins in week 10. Opening at a decent total of 50 points with Green Bay being 2.5 road favorites we need to really dig in here to see if this is one of the games of the week we want to focus on from a fantasy standpoint.

Minnesota has had a duel personality this year and we don’t know which team we are going to get but I lean the Packers in this Sunday’s game. If bad Minnesota shows up the Packers will cruise to victory. If good Minnesota shows up the Packers still have outs as they’ve shown they can contend with the best in the league. The one-shot I would take here would be a Rodgers-Dillon-Adams Stack with a Justin Jefferson runback.

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Underdog Pick’em Plays: Week 11

by Cornhole God, November 20, 2021

The modest 26.5 receiving yards line for Adam Trautman is bound to hit the OVER. Trautman’s usage has surged since Trevor Siemian took over in Week  8, resulting in at least 6 targets per game. Moreover, his 3 (No. 3 among qualified tight ends) drops show that he is catching the majority of these targets. Additionally, he has hit the OVER on 26.5 receiving yards in two out of three games since Week 8. Last but not least, Philadelphia ranks bottom-5 in yards allowed to tight ends.

While Michael Pittman has hit the over on this line 60-percent of the time, he hasn’t been successful when matched up against top-12 cornerbacks, per PlayerProfiler Cornerback Rankings. The only time Pittman hit the OVER against a top-12 CB was in Week 1 against Jalen Ramsey. This week, Pittman will be pitted against one the best cornerbacks in Tre’Davious White. White has yet to allow more than 52 yards to receivers through Week 10.

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