First, I love the over on this game. Second, I like the Commanders and think they win outright with Detroit’s rash of injuries that includes star running back D’Andre Swift and offensive line anchors Frank Ragnow and Taylor Decker. Keep an eye on their status as the week goes on but their activity at practice hasn’t been promising.
We are through a week, plus a Thursday Night Football, of the fantasy season. Play-by-play data for this season’s games are starting to pour in and get uploaded to PlayerProfiler.com. It’s time to continue our series of weekly player prop pick ‘em selections based on new knowledge. In these articles, I review selections from the previous week. I give out my favorite player prop pick ‘ems for the upcoming weekend on the DFS pages of Underdog Fantasy and Sleeper.
Jaylen Waddle finished inside the top-20 last week thanks to a touchdown, but his opportunity metrics are concerning. His Target Share ranks No. 40 among wide receivers and his Slot Rate plummeted from 43.8-percent last season to 17.5-percent in Week 1. Rashod Bateman’s opportunity metrics from Week 1 show that inconsistent performances will occur. He was outside the top-50 in targets, Snap Share, and Route Participation.
Marvin Jones is top-20 in Air Yards and Routes Run. On top of that, he’s top-10 in Average Target Distance, Unrealized Air Yards, and Deep Targets. Jakobi Meyers saw a 92.5-percent (No. 16) Snap Share, 20.0-percent (No. 32) Target Share, and 32.7-percent (No. 23) Air Yards Share. On top of that, his 14.8 (No. 14) Average Target Distance in Week 1 was MUCH higher than years past where he’s been under 11.0 every season.
Speed. There are few things in the modern NFL more important than speed. Whether it’s 40 times, how quickly a new signing can pick up an offense, or how fast a quarterback identifies a free rusher. You can’t function in today’s game without speed at the forefront of everything you do.
With this in mind, we’ll be taking a weekly look at each team’s Pace of Play.
Welcome to the newest edition of TNF Showdown which features Chargers at Chiefs. I’ll be guiding you through the important aspects to watch in each Thursday night matchup.
Without further ado, let’s see what the Los Angeles Chargers and the Kansas City Chiefs have in store for us in what will be a pivotal battle for control of the AFC West.
The perpetually under valued Brandin Cooks resides on the top of the value play list, a place he may as well call home. While some fantasy prognosticators were scared off of Cooks because of a perceived poor Texans offense and the potential emergence of sleeper candidate Nico Collins, both of those narratives were laid to rest week one. Davis Mills was sufficiently average throwing the football posting a 95.2 True Passer Rating (no. 12 among quarterbacks), and Cooks handedly out-targeted Collins 12 to 3. Cooks is a strong play in all formats.
Corey Davis remained the Jets primary wide receiver target despite the off-season hype of second-year wide receiver Elijah Moore and rookie first round pick Garrett Wilson. Davis out targeted both of his teammates and was the Jets’ leader in Air Yards. With Joe Flacco as his quarterback, and Davis likely seeing coverage from all-pro Denzel Ward this week, I’d shy away from exposure but if forced to play him I would reserve him as a cash play only.
The Titans gave up a whopping 164 yards to Saquon Barkley on the ground in week 1. The Giants ran for over 200 yards total against Tennessee, while Barkley tacked on 6 receptions. Singletary had 67 (No. 13) evaded tackles last season, so look for him to take advantage of the Titans’ poor tackling that was on display week 1. The Bills are the better team in this matchup, so a lead would open more rushing opportunity for Singletary as well.
The Vikings contained Aaron Rodgers to less than 200 yards, no touchdowns, and an interception in the opener. New additions Jordan Hicks and Za’Darius Smith wreaked havoc up front with Danielle Hunter. Patrick Peterson in the secondary with Lewis Cine potentially returning in week 2 will also make Hurts’ life harder. Opponents were No. 23 last season in scoring QB rushing fantasy points against Minnesota, and Hicks and Smith make Hurts’ chances of a big rushing day even more difficult. Facing an improved Vikings defense, don’t expect Hurts to put on a show this week.
Last season, post-Week 1, going into Week 2 waiver wire, was one of the most impactful waiver wire runs. Elijah Mitchell, Cordarrelle Patterson, Hunter Renfrow, Christian Kirk, and Dalton Schultz were added in most leagues. Mitchell was the clear running back to roster in a good offense with a path to yearly usage. Other players went under the radar and could be picked up with reasonable faab bids and waiver priorities.
All in all it was a strong week for our roster making transactions rather difficult. The brightest star is of course Darrell Henderson. The former Memphis Tiger played 82-percent of his team’s snaps and dominated usage in all situations. While he was not able to punch in a score or provide much in terms of efficiency, his usage profile was that of an RB1.
Buffalo, this year’s Super Bowl favorite, opened the 2022 season as road favorites against the defending Super Bowl Champion Rams. They lived up to the advanced billing, crushing the defending champs 31-10, and it wasn’t even that close.
Last year, the Bills stopped teams by preventing big plays. This year, it seems they’re going to prevent little plays, too. They completely stomped on the Rams’ revamped offensive line. The Bills defense sacked Matthew Stafford seven times. Last year, he didn’t see his seventh sack until Week 8.
