Welcome to the Week 17 MNF Showdown! Josh Allen and the Bills head west to face Joe Burrow‘s Bengals in Cincinnati. This matchup sets up as a barn-burner in what could ultimately be an AFC playoff preview. The razor-thin spread makes me more interested in betting overs in both the game total and player props rather than the outright winner. Both offenses are potent, so there’s merit in betting on the usual suspects. Without further ado, let’s dig in for Week 17’s MNF Showdown!
Bills vs Bengals Odds:
Bills -1.5 (-105) |
Over/Under 49.5 (-110/110) |
Moneyline Bills -116/Bengals -102 |
The Bills
Josh Allen is the overall QB1. The Bills’ DIY quarterback has steadily stuffed the stat-sheet all season. Allen ranks No. 6 in Pass Yards (4029), No. 3 in Passing Touchdowns (32), and No. 3 in Rushing Touchdowns (10).
On the ground or in the air, @JoshAllenQB stays scoring🤑 #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/d88rMEtwQV
— NFL GameDay (@NFLGameDay) December 26, 2022
I’m expecting more of the same from him while facing a beatable Bengals secondary (No. 15 in Pass Yards Allowed) in a game with the No. 2 highest Vegas total. I like the Bengals’ offensive success to push Allen into the stratosphere.
Rushing and Receiving
Devin Singletary and James Cook nearly posted a combined 199 Rushing Yards against the Bears in Week 16. Though this offensive outburst is attention-worthy, this backfield has been tough to peg. The two backs have recorded a near-even Snap Share lately (Singletary 53 and Cook 40-percent since Week 13). Singletary is worthy of one-game DFS tournament consideration having notched a trio of top 10 RB1 performances thus far this season. Cook is a fade for me with Singletary standing in the way of any true ceiling.
Stefon Diggs is WR3 despite three straight games with WR39 or worse finishes. I’m hoping for some positive regression for the stud wideout in what is slated to be a high-scoring game. His strong 27-percent Target Share (No. 14) and 101 Receptions (No. 4) plead the case for a reversal of his recent lack of production. He’s a proven-commodity WR1. Gabriel Davis on the other hand hasn’t topped 60 Receiving Yards since Week 11. Isaiah McKenzie and his 12-percent Target Share make for a fine fade as well. Dawson Knox has TE1 appeal after posting a score in three straight games.
The Bengals
Joe Burrow has been fire lately, tallying three QB4 or better finishes in his last six starts. Burrow’s 4,260 Passing Yards and 34 Passing Touchdowns are No. 2 only to fellow gun-slinger, Patrick Mahomes.
.@JoeyB had a career-high 40 completions in Saturday's game against the Patriots.
Here are his most improbable completions from Week 16 ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/AdGSf7LU4f
— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) December 26, 2022
Because of their stout rush defense, the Bills allow an elevated 64-percent pass rate to opposing offenses (No. 6 most). Like Allen, Burrow has the chance to be the slate leader at his position.
Rushing and Receiving
Joe Mixon hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 9. Though he’s still the team’s clear lead back, he’s seen his Snap Share slip from 72-percent to 60-percent since his return from a concussion. The Bills rank No. 11 in Rushing Yards Allowed, which has subsequently resulted in a lackluster 16.2 fantasy points per game (No. 10 best). Mixon deserves low-end RB1 consideration based on the game environment alone, but he’s no lock.
Ja’Marr Chase (WR9) and Tee Higgins (WR14) form what is arguably the best receiver duo in the league. The young play-makers have accounted for a sizable 50.6-percent Bengals’ Target Share. Looks should keep opening up for Chase with the whole receiving corps healthy at the same time. Chase is a matchup-proof stud WR1. Higgins has hit pay dirt in four of the Bengals’ last five games. He always carries slate-breaking juju when he’s on the field. Trenton Irwin looks to have surpassed Tyler Boyd as the No. 3 wideout, but I’m not chasing his two touchdowns on a lowly 8-percent Target Share. Hayden Hurst is expected to return (calf) but is an after-thought with Chase and Higgins on the field.
