As Week 7 approaches, we’re forced to start paying closer attention to player bye weeks (Christian McCaffrey, Nick Chubb, James Conner) and the weekly injury reports that suggest a bell cow back could miss a game (Alvin Kamara). This is where we really have a chance to capitalize on the low-priced, high upside backs who we would otherwise ignore most weeks.
While we are undoubtedly missing out on everybody’s favorite weekly starts, those who take deep dives to find edges during the bye week have a chance to truly benefit from their research. At PlayerProfiler.com, we look to gain those edges with our advanced stats and metrics that put us ahead of the game, while also factoring in the team they’re going up against.
This week we have a chance to hit on a few players who have been trending up over the last few weeks, while also going back to find the latest beneficiary of the gift that keeps on giving (Miami Dolphins). Here are your Week 7 running back buy lows.
Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons
Draft Kings: $5400
At the start of this season, you could have considered me as being off the Devonta Freeman train. The oft-injured, veteran running back who has only twice eclipsed 1,000-plus rushing yards was returning from a 2018 season in which he only saw action in two games due to a myriad of injuries. Despite the doubt fantasy gamers had in Freeman heading into the 2019 season, Atlanta’s top running back has reeled off three straight top-15 fantasy weeks, and is coming off a 26.8 point performance against the Cardinals in Week 6. Over the last three weeks, Freeman is averaging 19.3 touches per game, 96.0 total yards per game, 5.3 receptions and has found the end zone three times. He’s also averaged 20.9 fantasy points per game over the last three weeks, and now has a chance to face a Rams defense that is giving up the ninth most fantasy points above the mean (+2.35) to opposing running backs this season.
Freeman ranks 10th among all running backs in receptions (25) and receiving yards (203), while posting a 74.1-percent (No. 9 among qualified running backs) Opportunity Share. He has a chance to continue his hot streak this week against the Rams, who are coming off a game in which they allowed 99 total rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns to the 49ers. Despite Freeman’s slow start to the season, Ito Smith has not worked into his workload enough to pose any sort of threat to his value. For those who have liked starting opposing running backs against the Rams thus far, Week 7 isn’t the week to lay off. Freeman seems like a surefire bet to finish this week as an RB1.
Tevin Coleman, RB, San Francisco 49ers
Draft Kings: $5600
Tevin Coleman‘s season didn’t get off to the start we hoped for after he went down in Week 1 with a high ankle sprain. He then missed Weeks 2 and 3 before returning in Week 5 after his team’s bye. Fortunately for the 49ers and fantasy gamers alike, Coleman has looked like the running back teams thought they were getting when they spent their fourth or fifth rounds draft picks on him. He looks like the running back we want to own in both season long and daily fantasy leagues. He plays on an undefeated team that boasts the league’s top defense, and runs in an offense that currently leads the league with 39.0 run plays per game.
Check out Tevin Coleman on PlayerProfiler’s Updated Weekly Rankings and Projections:
Since coming back in Week 5, Coleman has finished as the RB19 and RB16 over the last two weeks respectively. He’s averaging 14.9 fantasy points per game over that time and has found the end zone in both of his matchups. He’s also averaging 3.3 (No. 33) red zone touches per game this season, which is substantially more than the 0.6 that Matt Breida has seen. Coleman is averaging 18 touches per game over the last two weeks, and has a chance to post his first RB1 week of the season in Week 7. He’s going up against a 1-5 Washington team whose defense is allowing +2.85 (No. 7) fantasy points above the mean to opposing running backs this year. Fantasy gamers strive to find high volume running backs on elite teams. Those who like to build lineups with a well thought out process and sound reasoning can’t possibly avoid him.
Devin Singletary, RB, Buffalo Bills
Draft Kings: $5400
Those who aren’t starting every cheap running back against the Miami Dolphins that they can are making an egregious mistake in their fantasy football analysis. Fortunately this week, we have a chance to make not only a great buy low decision, but possibly one of the best buy low decisions we’ll make all season in DFS. Through the first two weeks of the season, Devin Singletary looked like one of the most exciting rookie running backs in the 2019 draft class. He reeled off three (No. 19) breakaway runs in less than two full games, and had totaled 155 yards with one touchdown while averaging 13.2 fantasy points per game.
He suffered a hamstring strain against the Giants that led to him missing the next four weeks, but now Singletary appears set to return in Week 7. He draws a Dolphins team that allows +14.85 fantasy points above the mean to opposing running backs. While Frank Gore still looms, Singletary’s 30-percent Breakaway Run Rate and favorable matchup against Miami makes him an easy buy low candidate with tremendous upside in Week 7. Buffalo is averaging 28.8 (No. 8) run plays per game and boasting a 4-1 record. The Bills should look to take an early lead at home against the Dolphins before riding their running backs to victory. Start Singletary with confidence.