The final week of DFS is upon us: The 2022 Super Bowl. Regardless of how you did during the season, everything you’ve done can be thrown out the window. There is a minimal method to the madness outside of a few key stats. Teams have two weeks to prepare, which means if there is a weakness, the other team will find it.
In the 2020 Super Bowl, Patrick Mahomes was phenomenal at escaping pressure when allowed to get outside. However, it wasn’t till 2021 when he improved his escapability up the middle. During 2020, he only had two rushing attempts go for over five yards when escaping between the guards.
Against a weak and injured Chiefs offensive line, the Buccaneers repeatedly brought pressure from the edges, forcing him to use his legs, not his arm, to beat them. Mahomes finished with 270 yards passing, two interceptions, and a fumble in his worst performance of the season. Not bad when you consider one of his best games came against them earlier in the year. Not to mention, the Bucs ranked outside the top ten against quarterbacks.
Breaking Down Previous DFS Keys During the Super Bowl
I just finished a prop bet article discussing some of the historical trivia surrounding the Super Bowl and how you could capitalize on specific bets. While looking into the why, you quickly realize those random big performances don’t happen often. They are game-scripted into existence.
Only five touchdowns were caught by players who saw less than five targets over the past 10 Super Bowls. Kyle Juszczyk saw a 25-percent Target Share as the Chiefs had a terrible DOCE Score, Nick Foles caught a pass on the Philly Special, Tevin Coleman ran just three fewer routes than his teammate, and Doug Baldwin ran almost every route; he just couldn’t get open.
The only freak touchdown reception was when Jacoby Jones got wide open after Joe Flacco was three for seven targeting receivers starting and coming off four straight incompletions. Chris Culliver not only blew the coverage but also missed the tackle after Jones fell to the ground—along with fellow defensive back Carlos Rodgers.
Freakish situations happen, but the teams trust the players who got them there. You want a player who will receive volume. For Super Bowl LVI, the DFS cocktail we are going with is a Rumpletini.
That’s right, a Rumpletini. Three ounces of straight Rumplemintz in a chilled martini glass, ready to set your night off!
We have to find a way to get those studs in our DFS lineups for the Super Bowl. So outside of Samaje Perine (tentatively), I’m not playing those flyers—not even if there was a fire. However, not playing a dart throw means you have to get creative with your lineups, especially if you want to get one of the top four options in your lineups.
I usually break down pricing and whatnot while discussing roster percentages. However, with a single game slate, there’s really no point. It’s more about discussing which players correlate.
For example, I mentioned in my prop bets piece how the Rams are affected by no Tyler Higbee.
“I firmly believe we will see the first wide receiver since Greg Jennings in 2011 haul in two touchdowns during the Super Bowl. I still like Kendall Blanton, but without Tyler Higbee, Kupp should have far more red-zone-designed plays.”
I also mention I don’t want Odell Beckham in the same lineups.
“It’s very much so in the realm of possibilities, but 50-percent of the time Kupp has hit over 20 points, he’s done so with two touchdowns. Kupp has never had a two-touchdown game when Beckham gets in the end zone. Kupp has also only scored 20 points 33-percent of the time Beckham has a touchdown.”
Although I’m more open to playing the two in DFS, you severely limit your upside if the game is competitive. Of course, scoring could happen on the other side, but it’s scarce to see a player produce who was not a focus during some point in the season. So getting Tyler Boyd, C.J. Uzomah, or possibly Samaje Perine are about the only shots you have at cheaper options producing.
If you decide to go the Bengals route, there’s a good chance they are scoring due to field position. Stafford has games where he tends to turn the ball over, and the Bengals have had four straight games with an interception while racking up five in the past two games. Their eight points aren’t anything to get excited about but taking one back for a pick-six is a tournament winner. The Bengals defense has a high floor plus upside potential in said scenario.
Keep in mind, if the Bengals are winning, the clock will tick as Joe Mixon grinds away. The Bengals short to intermediate receivers become much more valuable, while Van Jefferson and Beckham become much more exhilarating towards the end of the halves.
I have a much more in-depth analysis on correlating factors for the Super Bowl here, but just like Rumpletinis, you just want the good stuff, and we don’t mess with perfection.
Thanks for following my content for DFS throughout the season and all the way into the Super Bowl!
See You DFS Players Again Soon!