NFL Week 15 Underdog Pick ‘Ems

by Ahaan Rungta · Betting & Props

Welcome to NFL Week 15 Underdog Pick ‘Ems! This is your spot for finding the best-value weekly picks whether players will go higher or lower than their projection. As usual, if you want weekly audio content for pick ‘ems, including getting in early on some lines that will move early in the week, check out the Pick ‘Em Power Hour every Wednesday and Friday with us hosts, Ahaan S. Rungta (@AhaanRungta) and Trevor Tipton (@FFCULater).

The team is coming off another winner last week as Ahaan’s three-pick entry turned into a two-pick cash (Geno Smith void). The Underdog Pick Generator is also coming off a 13-4-1 showing. We are rolling and looking to end the regular season with a bang on the show.

If you would like to tail our plays or create your own, join Underdog today with promo code UNDERWORLD for a 100% deposit match up to $100 USD upon entry. Here are our picks for Week 15.

Ahaan’s Week 15 Picks

Pat Freiermuth (PIT) HIGHER Than 3.0 Receptions

Both picks in my entry are in the Saturday slate. This is the ultimate buy-low on a Pittsburgh offense that nobody has faith in right now. Despite playing with Mitchell Trubisky for about a game and a half since last week, the tight end Pat Freiermuth has 12 targets over his last two games and at least three receptions in both games. On the season, he has at least three receptions in five of his eight games. Now, he gets a dream matchup against a Colts defense that ranks No. 1 in the NFL in zone coverage rate.

Freiermuth has drawn over 65-percent of his targets this season against zone coverage and should see similar usage in a close spread against the Colts in Week 15. On the sportsbooks, his receptions line is trending toward 3.5 for even juice. Therefore, it is great value to get the push potential of exactly three receptions.

Sam LaPorta (DET) HIGHER Than 46.5 Receiving Yards

For our second pick, we are moving over one time slot to the Saturday Night Football game in Detroit. The Lions seek a bounce back against the upward-trending Broncos. One of the reasons Denver has looked much better lately is that their defense is finally improving against wide receivers. However, they still rank above league-average in zone coverage rate and since coming off their bye in Week 10, they have allowed the No. 4-most targets, No. 4-most receptions, and the No. 9-highest yards per reception to tight ends.

Recommended: 0.50u on the two-pick entry

Sam LaPorta has looked the part in his rookie campaign and cleared this projection in eight of his 13 games overall, five of his 6 games at home, and five of Detroit’s nine wins.

Trevor’s Week 15 Picks

Russell Wilson (DEN) HIGHER than 5.5 rushing attempts 

In the upcoming Week 15 NFL game between the Denver Broncos and the Detroit Lions, all eyes will be on the quarterback Russell Wilson. Known for his impressive passing skills, Wilson has also shown a remarkable ability to run the ball when needed. After being embarrassed by the Miami Dolphins early this season, the Broncos under Sean Payton have turned things around. They currently sit at 7-6 while being in the wild card hunt in the AFC. Additionally, they are only one game out of first place in the AFC West. 

The Lions have been struggling as of late. However, one of the bright spots for the Lions has been Aidan Hutchinson. We expect Hutchinson to be able to get after Wilson this week. This will open up lanes for Wilson to run against the Lions who are currently allowing the most rushing yards per game to QB’s at 30.7. Detroit has given up 18 and 12 rushing attempts to Justin Fields. They also allowed Taysom Hill to rack up 13 two weeks ago. 

Wilson has had games with the following rushing attempts: 8, 9, 11, and 10. The upside is there for the taking against the Lions who have given up 67 rushing attempts to quarterbacks this season which is No. 3 worst in the NFL. Wilson has shown a consistent ability to run the ball this season, averaging 24.2 rushing yards per game. In 13 games, he has exceeded 5.5 rushing attempts seven times, demonstrating his willingness to use his legs when necessary.

Saturday night’s late matchup currently has a Vegas total of 47.5. We project Wilson to have seven rushing attempts in this game. This line will close at 6.0 or higher come game time. 

Rachaad White (TB) HIGHER than 14.65 fantasy points

Rachaad White, a second-year RB out of Arizona State University, joined the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as a third-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. White is a powerful and versatile running back with an impressive college career. In his final season at ASU, White rushed for 1,000 yards and 15 touchdowns, averaging 5.5 yards per carry. He also showcased his skills as a receiver, catching 43 passes for 456 yards and a touchdown. 

In 2022 as a member of the Buccaneers, White had the opportunity to learn from one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, Tom Brady. Although he was stuck sharing the backfield with veteran Leonard Fournette, White has made the most of his opportunities, averaging 4.5 yards per carry and catching 57 passes for 481 yards and two touchdowns. It has translated into a breakout season for the RB who is currently No. 4 in Fantasy Points this season amongst running backs. 

Recommended: 0.50u on the two-pick entry

This week, White and the Buccaneers take on the Green Bay Packers, a team that has struggled against the run this season. The Packers defense has allowed an average of 141.8 rushing yards per game. This ranks No. 31 in the league. Green Bay has also surrendered 13.3-percent of carriers to rush for 10+ yards or more. Additionally, they have allowed rushers to run for 15 yards or more a staggering 5.5-percent of the time. The Packers have done this while giving up 13 rushing touchdowns this season. 

White now has 6 TDs in his last six games while amassing 626 rushing + receiving yards. The fantasy points option allows us to capture his TD upside along with his usage. His touchdown prop is currently -118 at sportsbooks which gives us even more value at Underdog. At 61-percent rushing attempt usage, and Baker’s checkdown tendencies, we love the over in this game.