NFL Week 14 Underdog Pick ‘Ems

by Ahaan Rungta · Betting & Props
Week 14 Underdog Pick 'Ems

Welcome back to the 2023-24 Underdog Fantasy Pick ‘Em article series, your spot for finding the best-value weekly spots to pick whether players will go higher or lower than their projection.

As usual, if you want weekly audio content for pick ‘ems, including getting in early on some lines that will move early in the week, check out the Pick ‘Em Power Hour every Wednesday and Friday with hosts, Ahaan S. Rungta (@AhaanRungta) and Trevor Tipton (@FFCULater).

If you would like to tail our plays or create your own, join Underdog today with promo code UNDERWORLD for a 100-percent deposit match up to $100 USD upon entry. Here are our picks for Week 14.

Ahaan’s Week 14 Picks

Josh Jacobs (LV) LOWER than 70.5 rushing yards

The NFL’s reigning touch leader has fortunately stayed healthy all season long despite the huge workload last year. However, his efficiency has left much to be desired. Josh Jacobs has cleared this projection in only four of 12 games this season. Granted, two of them have come since Week 10, but he was also the beneficiary of a few huge plays in those games. Those outlier explosions will be harder to come by against a Vikings defense that ranks No. 15 in Run Stop Win Rate.

To add to the bad news for Jacobs, Vegas is a home underdog in this one behind quarterback Aidan O’Connell. They also play a Minnesota offense that features the return of wide receiver Justin Jefferson. If the Raiders are playing from behind, the Game Script will dictate a pass-heavy Raiders tempo, taking away carries from the running back. Jacobs’ rushing yards projection is far too high.

Geno Smith (SEA) HIGHER than 22.0 completions

Tyler Lockett (SEA) HIGHER than 50.5 receiving yards

We will add a quarterback-receiver stack to our entry to turn this water into a potential 5x payout if we hit all three picks. With Tyler Lockett and Geno Smith, I am backing the Seahawks passing attack against a 49ers defense whose secondary is their only weakness.

San Francisco is a huge home favorite in Week 14 and if they do take command of this game, Smith should be able to thrive in passing counting statistics due to Game Script.

This season, eight quarterbacks have recorded at least 22 completions against San Francisco and slot wide receivers have had their way. Overall, 13 wide receivers have recorded at least 51 receiving yards against the 49ers. Although Lockett faced the Niners two weeks ago and failed to clear this projection, it wasn’t due to lack of opportunity. He drew five targets, but had a crucial drop that would have had him near this line. It’s time to buy low on a projection that he has cleared in six of his 11 games playing alongside DK Metcalf this season.

Recommended: 0.50u on the two-pick entry

Trevor’s Week 14 Picks

Robert Spillane (LV) HIGHER than 2.5 assists

In the heart of the Las Vegas Raiders’ defense stands a player whose name might not be as well-known as some of his teammates such as Maxx Crosby, but his impact on the field is undeniable. Robert Spillane, a linebacker who joined the Raiders in 2023, has quietly become a crucial piece of the team’s defensive puzzle. 

One of the key reasons Spillane is expected to have a big game against the Vikings is his recent performance. Since Week 9, he has earned a 90.2 Run Defense Grade, which ranks him No. 1 among all linebackers in the league. This impressive statistic showcases his ability to read offenses and make crucial tackles when it matters most. Spillane is also 11 out of 12 this season for going higher than 2.5 assists. He has also hit that number in nine straight games. 

The Vikings’ offense, led by quarterback Josh Dobbs, has struggled in recent weeks. Dobbs threw four interceptions in his last game. That vulnerability plays right into Spillane’s strengths, as he is known for his ability to read quarterbacks and make game-changing plays.

With the Raiders’ defensive line putting pressure on Dobbs, Spillane will have ample opportunity to make tackles and assists.

Another factor that could contribute to Spillane’s success is the return of All-Pro wide receiver Justin Jefferson for the Vikings. With Jefferson back in the lineup, the Vikings’ passing game will likely improve, which could lead to more opportunities for Spillane to make tackles and assists especially with Minnesota passing at a 63-percent rate this season. Spillane has been an assist monster this season with 49, averaging 3.67 a game.

Christian McCaffrey (SF) HIGHER than 18.0 rushing attempts 

This Sunday, the 49ers will face off against the Seahawks in what is an important game for both teams in terms of playoff implications. One of the key factors in this matchup will be the performance of Christian McCaffrey, the All-Pro running back who has been a game-changer for the 49ers since they stole him from Carolina. 

The 49ers have been leaning heavily on the run game this season, with McCaffrey being the focal point of their offense. The team has shown a preference for a run-heavy approach, which has allowed them to control the clock and wear down opposing defenses.

Given the success they have had, it’s likely the 49ers will continue to rely on the ground game against the Seahawks, resulting in a high number of rushing attempts for McCaffrey. The 49ers are not afraid to use their workhorse. McCaffrey had 26 rushing attempts last December (and 19 earlier this season) versus the Seahawks. 

The Seattle Seahawks’ defense has been a weak spot this season, particularly when it comes to stopping the run. The team ranks No. 23 in the league in rushing yards allowed per game, giving up an average of 119.3 yards on the ground. Tony Pollard had 20 rushing attempts last week, and the Rams ran Royce Freeman at them 17 times. The Niners are fighting for the No. 1 seed, and we expect them to use their star this Sunday. The Seahawks rank No. 23 in the NFL this season, allowing 28.25 rushing attempts per game, and I would not be surprised to see McCaffrey go well into the twenties this week.

Recommended: 0.50u on the two-pick entry