PlayerProfiler is home to award-winning dynasty rankings and tools. Our Dynasty Deluxe package includes complete Dynasty Rankings, Rookie Rankings, Trade Analyzer, Draft Planner, Mock Drafts, and more. Check it out! Below, Wolf Trelles-Heard picks one draft value and one fade from the NFC South.
As we get closer to kicking off redraft season for both work and home leagues, I wanted to highlight some current values across the fantasy landscape. I’ll be going one division at a time, with the NFC South featured today, and highlighting one player I think is a draft value and one I believe should be faded at a cost. For this series, I’ll be using Underdog’s ADP as a baseline until more drafts take place and we get a clearer picture of how players are coming off the board.
Hope you find this info useful and include it in your draft prep to help dominate your leagues.
Also, check out the one draft value and one fade from the NFC North and NFC East.
Draft Value: Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints (ADP 56.1, RB18)
Only three things are certain in life: death, taxes, and Alvin Kamara crushing it in fantasy.
Despite never having a 1,000-yard rushing season in his prolific eight-year career, Kamara always puts up monster PPR numbers and helps his fantasy managers win championships (remember the 6-TD performance during the fantasy finals in Week 16 of 2020?). He’s the only consistent weapon in New Orleans and gets the job done whether the offense is clicking or not.
Here’s where Kamara has finished in fantasy points per game over his career:
2024: 19.0 (RB5)
2023: 17.9 (RB3)
2022: 14.1 (RB13)
2021: 18.1 (RB4)
2020: 25.2 (RB1)
2019: 17.8 (RB8)
2018: 23.2 (RB4)
2017: 19.5 (RB4)
Kamara doesn’t appear to be slowing down either. A true passing-catching maven out of the backfield, he posted elite usage and efficiency in 2024, including a 76.4-percent opportunity share (RB6), a 21.5-percent target share (RB1), and a receiving Explosive Play Rating of 131.5 (RB2).
Alvin Kamara Advanced Metrics
So why is a guy who’s finished outside the top 12 just once readily available in Round 5 of drafts this year?
Getting Long in The Tooth
Among active RBs, Kamara is No. 3 with 2,116 touches, behind only Joe Mixon and Derrick Henry. Add in playoff games, and that number jumps to 2,242. That’s a ton of wear and tear. Although it hasn’t happened yet, Kamara could fall off a cliff at any moment as he enters his age-30 season.
Poor Offense Expected
Let’s not sugarcoat it; Las Vegas expects the Saints to be bad in 2025. Their projected win total is tied for worst in the league at just 5.5 games. ESPN’s Mike Clay projects them to score a mere 18.4 points per game, down from 19.9 last year. With the team rolling out either Spencer Rattler, a 5th-round pick last year, or rookie 2nd-round pick Tyler Shough, it’s hard to be optimistic that this team will light up the scoreboard. It will be tough to contend in the NFC south, but the Saints will see favorable game scripts.
Receiving Work Could Regress
New Orleans brought in Kellen Moore to be their new head coach. Moore’s offenses are fast-paced and exciting, but not exactly RB-friendly when it comes to targets. Here’s how many times his teams have thrown to the RB position in recent years:
- 69 times in 2024 (Eagles – 29th)
- 94 times in 2023 (Chargers – T-19th)
- 85 times in 2022 (Cowboys – T-25th)
Still, when the dust settles, give me the QB-proof stud who just keeps producing year after year. His elite receiving ability and consistent usage give him a weekly floor that most RBs can’t touch. I suspect by the time most drafts happen, he’ll creep into Round 4, and I’m okay snagging him there. If the NFC South’s elder statesman at RB falls to Round 5, that’s more of a gift than a gamble.
Draft Fade: Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (ADP 22.3, RB9)
Please forgive me as I offer up the fantasy community’s golden child in this section. Look, I get it. Bucky Irving was phenomenal during his rookie year, winning the hearts of fans and fantasy managers everywhere. As a Bucs fan, no one loved watching him gallop in the open field more than I did.
But I fear, as a community, we’ve gassed up Irving a little too much, and taking him in the mid-to-late 2nd round might not be the best investment this season.
Bucky Irving Advanced Metrics
Irving finished as the overall RB13 in PPR scoring last season but was RB19 in fantasy points per game, with a modest 14.4 average. Sure, he can build on his first season and get better going into Year 2, but at RB9 prices, Irving is basically being drafted at his ceiling. That’s never a smart play.
Uncertain Play-caller
If Irving is going to take that next step, he’ll be doing it in an environment that remains largely unchanged, except for the departure of offense coordinator Liam Coen. Tampa Bay promoted from within, giving pass game coordinator Josh Grizzard the task of filling Coen’s shoes and helming an offense that ranked No. 4 in scoring last season.
But Grizzard has never called plays at the pro level or been an OC, so no one knows how the offense will operate. Will he ride Bucky like the Bucs did at the end of the season when Irving out-touched Rachaad White 64 to 10 from Week 17 through the Wild Card loss? Or will he lean towards a timeshare with White, who’s in a contract year, and hover around a 50-percent snap share for each?
If it’s the latter, that’s bad news for managers. Believe it or not, before Week 17, White averaged more points per game than Irving: 14.4 to 13.7. If the split ends up closer to 50/50, then there’s no way Irving pays off his round 2 cost unless his efficiency goes sky-high – tough to do given last year’s numbers:
Bucky Irving’s 2024 efficiency numbers
The Bucs also like Sean Tucker and have expressed their desire to get him on the field a little bit more. Tucker, going into his third season, averaged 6.2 yards per carry last year and won the Offensive Player of the Week award in Week 6 when he torched the Saints. If the Bucs bump his 9.2-percent snap share up to even, say, 15 percent, that’s fewer opportunities for Irving.
Lineman Lost
Another issue that could easily throw a wrench into things is the loss of two-time First-team All-Pro left tackle Tristan Wirfs. Widely considered the best tackle in football by many NFL executives, Wirfs starts the season on the PUP (Physically Unable to Perform) list as he recovers from arthroscopic surgery on his right knee. Losing a blindside protector of his caliber is a major blow and will absolutely hamper Irving and the run game.
We’ll see how much Tampa Bay’s staff decides to put on Irving’s plate. But at the end of the day, he’s a 5-9, 192-pound back. Not having him out there for a heavy workload will keep him fresh, which benefits both him and the offense, but it could frustrate fantasy managers.
Dynasty? I love Bucky. He turns just 23 years old in August and – besides Bijan Robinson – should be the top RB in the NFC South for years to come. But in redraft this year if you’re set on going RB in this range, go with someone more likely to see a workhorse role like Jonathan Taylor, Josh Jacobs, or Chase Brown.
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Wolf Trelles-Heard is a fantasy football contributor for PlayerProfiler. Find him on X at @DynastyFFWolf.
