PlayerProfiler is home to award-winning dynasty rankings and tools. Our Dynasty Deluxe package includes complete Dynasty Rankings, Rookie Rankings, Trade Analyzer, Draft Planner, Mock Drafts, and more. Check it out! Below, Wolf Trelles-Heard picks one draft value and one fade from the NFC East.
As we get closer to kicking off redraft season for both work and home leagues, I wanted to highlight some current values across the fantasy landscape. I’ll be going one division at a time, the NFC East featured today, and highlighting one player I think is a draft value and one I believe should be faded at cost. For this series, I’ll be using Underdog’s ADP as a baseline until more drafts take place and we get a clearer picture of how players are coming off the board.
Hope you find this info useful and include it in your draft prep to help dominate your leagues.
Also, check out the one draft value and one fade from the NFC North.
Draft Value: Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys (ADP 111.6, QB13)
Usually, when the quarterback of “America’s Team” comes up during a draft or in the group chat, he’s met with indifference or sometimes outright disdain. Dak Prescott just doesn’t get much love from the fantasy community, and honestly, it’s hard to understand why.
It’s true, 2024 wasn’t kind to Prescott before suffering a season-ending hamstring injury in Week 9. In eight games, he managed just one QB1 finish, totaling 1,978 passing yards, 11 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. Efficiency also took a hit, as you can see below:
Dak Prescott’s 2024 efficiency metrics
In 2023, Prescott ranked in the top 10 in all the above metrics except play-action completion percentage. But in 2024, the rest of the NFC East stepped up their games, and the Cowboys’ offense wasn’t clicking in Big D.
As a result, there was change. The team chose not to retain Mike McCarthy, instead promoting Brian Schottenheimer to head coach. While Schottenheimer has served as the Cowboys’ offensive coordinator the past two seasons, it was McCarthy calling the plays. Before things sputtered last year, Dallas led the NFL in scoring in 2023, and Schottenheimer brings 15 years of OC experience into his first HC job.
Improved Weapons
Next, the team knew they had to get Prescott another weapon to throw to besides All-Pro CeeDee Lamb and did that by acquiring George Pickens. The former Steeler may have worn out his welcome in Pittsburgh, but his talent is undeniable. Pickens is a dynamic, downfield threat and a perfect complement to Lamb’s elite route-running and versatility. He’s had at least 800 receiving yards in each of his first three seasons, and in 2024, he ranked No. 3 among all WRs in PlayerProfiler’s Explosive Rating (EPX).
Dak Prescott Advanced Metrics
Lastly, and this may help Prescott’s fantasy value more than it helps the Cowboys in real life, Dallas didn’t do much to improve its run game. Gone are Rico Dowdle, who rushed for over 1,000 yards in 2024, and former fantasy beast Ezekiel Elliott. Their replacements? Veterans Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders, and rookie Jaydon Blue, a 5th-round pick out of Texas. That backfield doesn’t inspire much confidence, meaning the Cowboys may need to lean on Prescott’s cannon if they are going to return to being among the NFL’s elite offenses.
Prescott recently said he’ll be “full go” for training camp, and that should be music to the ears of fantasy managers. At cost, he’s a steal. Grabbing him late allows managers to load up on the WRs and RBs early, while still getting a reliable veteran QB who’s delivered big fantasy numbers when healthy.
Here’s where Prescott has finished in total points scored among QBs in every season he’s played a full slate:
2023: QB3
2021: QB8
2019: QB2
2018: QB14
2017: QB10
2016: QB7
Let the rest of your league dismiss Prescott at their own risk because it’s “cool” to hate on the Cowboys. Get yourself a perennial QB1 for cheap as Prescott tries to keep the Cowboys out of the NFC East basement with his arm talent.
Draft Fade: Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders (ADP 32.3, WR18)
It finally happened last season!
After many years of being a dependable but unspectacular WR2/WR3 in fantasy, Terry McLaurin finally broke out in a big way with rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels slinging the rock.
Or did he?
McLaurin finished as the overall WR6 in half-PPR and WR7 in full-PPR. But if you dig a little deeper, the numbers aren’t quite as impressive. He averaged 15.8 fantasy points per game, which ranked just 14th among wide receivers. His target volume was modest too: 117 targets over 17 games, good for a 23.3-percent target share (WR34).
Terry McLaurin Advanced Metrics
For context, McLaurin’s per-season averages across his six-year career are 1,063 receiving yards and 77 catches per season. In 2024, he was right in line with his career norms, totaling 1,096 yards and 82 catches.
So what changed? That’s easy: touchdowns.
Touchdowns
After scoring just 25 total touchdowns in his first five seasons, McLaurin went nuclear last year and crossed the goal line a career-high 13 times. He accounted for 44.8 percent of Washington’s receiving scores. What’s more likely to happen – McLaurin getting another double-digit TD campaign, or regressing to his usual five-ish TDs a season? Smart money says the latter.
McLaurin also has some extra competition for targets this coming year. The Commanders went out and acquired Deebo Samuel from the San Francisco 49ers. While Samuel isn’t the route technician or vertical threat that McLaurin is, he thrives in the short game, and that happens to be where offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury likes to operate. No one dials up more horizontal throws than Kingsbury, and Samuel is going to soak up a lot of those targets.
Another concern is that McLaurin is currently holding out for a new contract. He skipped mandatory minicamp in June and isn’t expected to show up for training camp until he lands a deal in line with the skyrocketing WR market. No one’s going to fault McLaurin, who turns 30 years old in September, for wanting to cash in after enjoying his best season as a pro.
Chances are, Washington and McLaurin find common ground and strike a deal that works for both parties. But the longer the holdout drags on, the more it bears watching in the tough NFC East.
You can avoid the situation altogether if you want a WR in the 3rd round and instead target Davante Adams, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, or DK Metcalf, all of whom I believe to have higher upside in 2025 than Scary Terry.
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Wolf Trelles-Heard is a fantasy football contributor for PlayerProfiler. Find him on X at @DynastyFFWolf.
