Tight end can be a fickle position in fantasy football. If you’re not willing to spend the draft capital on one of the top two guys, you’ll find yourself trying to find a sleeper. In this article, I look back at the Kyle Pitts fantasy season to see what went wrong. I will also examine Evan Engram to see what we might glean from his 2022 to help us find the next sleeper tight end. Hopefully, this will help you find the next diamond in the rough.
Stud Tight End | Evan Engram
I only grabbed him in one league. It was also one of the leagues I had the Dud of this article.
Luckily, I was able to find a suitable tight end replacement in Engram. This goes to show fantasy gamers the neccesity of grinding the waiver wire even if you have what is perceived to be a stud option at tight end.
When Did You Know He Was One of Your Guys?
In Week 8 vs. Denver, Engram put up his third top-10 finish in four weeks and was on a hot streak. 29 targets, 19 catches, 231 yards, and a TD over four weeks is really nice for a mid to bottom-tier TE. But he still had not shown the ability to explode and single-handedly win you a matchup until Week 14. When he had 11 catches for 162 yards, he showed the top-end fantasy production that made him My Guy in 2022.
Why Did You Like Him So Much?
Tight end is probably the most challenging position to draft in fantasy. It’s Kelce, then Andrews, then the field. It’s also a very fluid position. In 2022, the No. 12 TE had 141 PPR fantasy points. Since 2015, there have been more than 40 unique tight ends that have reached that mark. You can’t be afraid to go out and find the next guy to break into the top 12. So, I’m always willing to throw a dart at a tight end that is seeing volume. After Engram’s fourth straight week with 6+ targets, he was still valued around tight end 20 which is your average waiver pick up.
What Did You Learn?
Continue throwing darts at tight ends with the volume. Offenses that throw to their TEs consistently are rare, so if a trend is developing, take advantage of it early. 53-percent of tight ends to reach the 141 PPR Points in a season mark that I mentioned earlier were over 27.
Evan Engram Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
And about 1/3 of the tight ends who reached that PPR mark only did it once from 2015-2022. Don’t give up on the older tight ends. Don’t be afraid to take a chance on a guy.
Drafting Him in 2023
His situation has not changed, and all signs point to a return to the Jaguars for Engram in 2023, but there are some details to work out. But at TE 8, he is still a tremendous late-round target. His athletic profile and situation make him a solid bet in 2023.
Dud Tight End | Kyle Pitts
When Did You Think He Was One of Your Guys?
I bought into the draft hype. He’s everything you look for in a WR, but he has the size to play TE. The draft capital was incredible and made me believe he was in an offense that would value him and utilize his skill set.
Why Did You Like Him So Much?
I loved the volume he saw in 2021, and I believe that TD rate can be random. Additionally, sometimes players are just unlucky. So, when the 6-6 athletic freak had zero touchdowns in 2021, I thought that would be an outlier that would lower his value just enough for me to grab him at a reasonable price.
What Did You Learn?
Situations don’t continually improve. Just because there were signs of a valuable asset doesn’t mean there will be one. Relying on a coaching or QB change is something I don’t mind doing in Dynasty. Still, if you have to rely on Marcus Mariota to have a quality fantasy player in Redraft, you’re better off looking elsewhere.
Avoiding Him In 2023
The Falcons will have Desmond Ridder under center in 2023, and while I hope it is an improvement, I am not willing to buy into the TE6.
Drake London could potentially take some of the routes and situations you would use a TE in, and with Bijan, the Falcons are likely to be a run-heavy team. Pitts is a sell in 2023, and I will not make the mistake I made last year.
