Dynasty Market Movers: Week 4 Report

by Steve Smith · Dynasty Leagues

Four eventful weeks of NFL action are in the books and injuries continue to shake up many dynasty rosters. In this rapidly changing climate, staying on top of the market trends, and consulting PlayerProfiler’s advanced stats and metrics are keys to making good dynasty league decisions. In this week’s installment of Dynasty Market Movers, a trio of wide receivers are the focus.

Market Follow-Up

After two solid outings, Darrell Henderson’s rising dynasty stock was handed a reality check. Malcolm Brown had the apparent hot hand in the team’s Week 4 game against the Giants. With Cam Akers close to rejoining the mix, this backfield will remain difficult to predict, at least for the time being. It’s not all doom and gloom though. Henderson has shown that he can produce and his dynasty value is dramatically higher than it was a few months ago. The Rams also want to run the ball, currently averaging 33.5 (No. 4) Team Run Plays per Game.

With John Brown back in the lineup from his Week 3 ankle injury, Gabriel Davis’ Snap Share regressed back to 58.6-percent. Still, this mark is higher than what Davis saw in the first two weeks, and Cole Beasley did leave the game briefly with a first-half foot injury. Buffalo’s promising rookie made good on his lone target, turning it into a 26-yard score. He still has a 100.0-percent Catch Rate on the season.

After a pedestrian first three weeks, Joe Mixon‘s stock was down. He bounced back in a huge way in Week 4 against the Jaguars, logging season-highs with an 87.1-percent Snap Share, 25 carries, and six receptions. Mixon took it to the house three times and totaled 181 yards. With a 42.1-fantasy point performance, the brief buy-low window is now closed. The dynasty stock market fluctuates, so always be on the lookout for the next buying opportunity.

Stock Trending Up – Justin Jefferson 

Minnesota Vikings first-round rookie wide receiver Justin Jefferson proved that he’s no one week wonder. After his Week 3 breakout, Jefferson once again went over 100 yards on four receptions for his Week 4 encore performance. Jefferson has been productive and is clearly locked into the No. 2 wide receiver role. Over four games, he ranks No. 8 among qualified wide receivers with 348 receiving yards and 126 Yards After Catch. From an efficiency standpoint, he has been unreal. He has a whopping 3.70 (No. 1) Yards per Route Run, a 1.95 (No. 28) Target Separation mark, earns 17.4 (No. 1) Yards per Target, and has committed zero (No. 81) drops. With an impressive 21.8 (No. 3) Yards per Reception, the rookie delivers chain-moving chunk plays.

Justin Jefferson 2020 Productivity and Efficiency Metrics

Jefferson has logged a Snap Share of over 80.0-percent in each of the past two weeks, working from the slot at a 34.3-percent rate. Put him on the field, throw the ball his way, and good things tend to happen. Jefferson proclaims that he’s just getting starting due to a lack of preseason. That’s music to the ears of his fantasy league managers.

Minnesota’s pass-friendly match-up versus the Seattle Seahawks in Week 5 also won’t hurt his rising value. It’s wheels up for Jefferson, who has risen to WR24 on PlayerProfiler’s dynasty rankings; one spot behind Week 2 market riser Diontae Johnson. Stock trending way up for the former LSU Tiger, this rookie is fun to watch.

Stock Trending Down – Anthony Miller

In 2018, the Chicago Bears traded up in the second round to select Anthony Miller. The promising Memphis wideout produced 1,434 and 1,462 receiving yards in his two final college seasons. To this date, his NFL production has been sporadic and wildly inconsistent. In his rookie season, Miller went over 50 receiving yards once, but did catch seven touchdowns. His sophomore season production improved with 656 (No. 49) receiving yards, yet he still posted 15 yards or less in eight contests.

Check out Anthony Miller on PlayerProfiler’s Updated Dynasty Rankings and Projections:

From a fantasy football ownership standpoint, Miller has been a rollercoaster ride. Putting him in a starting line up is a true gamble. In 2019, he left managers with 3.1 fantasy points or less in eight of 17 games. He did battle shoulder issues during his first two seasons, so there was a built-in excuse. Unfortunately, the inconsistency trend has continued in 2020, with several dropped passes and a Week 2 fantasy goose-egg.

Rookie Darnell Mooney has out-snapped Miller in three consecutive weeks. In Week 3, they each ran 35 routes and saw five targets. In Week 4, Mooney ran more routes and saw more targets. A possible third-year breakout candidate, Miller’s dynasty value has been trending the wrong way to start 2020. The production needs to live up to the potential sooner than later, or it will be last call for Miller Time.

Market Watchlist – Devin Duvernay

Through three weeks, the Market Watchlist has featured Browns TE Harrison Byrant, Bears WR Darnell Mooney, and Bills WR Gabriel Davis. This trio of players has continued to stay involved in their respective offenses, showing signs of bright futures. Diving a bit deeper this week, the spotlight is on Ravens 2020 third-round wide receiver Devin Duvernay. Playing his college football at Texas, Duvernay possesses solid workout metrics. He logged a 4.39 (95th-percentile) 40-yard dash and has a 104.7 (82nd-percentile) Speed Score. His College Dominator Rating is a respectable 32.5-percent (58th-percentile), although he does have a late 22.0 (17th-percentile) Breakout Age.

Devin Duvernay Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile w/ 2020 Game Logs

In Week 4, Duvernay was targeted twice, catching one ball for four yards. While this sort of output isn’t much to rave about, the takeaway message is that the rookie logged a season-high 27.3-percent Snap Share and ran 10 routes. This increased offensive playing time came on the heels of a 93-yard kick return touchdown in Week 3 against the Kansas City Chiefs. Keep an eye on Duvernay’s usage to see if he continues to trend towards a larger role in the Ravens offensive game plan.