Impending Value Shifts Affecting Dynasty and Redraft

by Kyle Lesti · Featured
Impending Value Shifts dynasty redraft

All the teams are now in their third week of training camp. The regular season is so close we can almost taste it. Here are some moves you should be making ahead of Week 1.

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Get ‘Em Outta Here! | Sell These Veterans Today

The following are good players; otherwise, no one would want to buy them in dynasty. However, these are also players I’m fading at cost in redraft leagues.

Christian McCaffrey | RB, San Francisco 49ers

Heading into what will be his 10th season in the NFL, Christian McCaffrey is coming off another season of monstrous volume. The former eighth overall pick totaled 413 touches last year. There is a healthy trove of data showing regression for players the year following such a wildly busy season — as recently as last year, we saw Saquon Barkley‘s production drop off steeply from 2024, when he led the league with over 2,000 rushing yards.

Barkley’s yards per carry dropped from a whopping 5.8 in 2024 to 4.1 last year, a nearly 30% decrease. McCaffrey has already seen a decline in efficiency. His yards per carry dipped below four for the first time since 2020. His Explosive Rating, Breakaway Runs, and Juke Rate have also diminished.

Durability is another concern. Barkley suited up for 16 games in 2025; a feat that the oft-injured Christian McCaffrey could have more difficulty with. McCaffrey has played seven games or fewer in three of the last six seasons.

The aging engine of the 49ers’ offense still has value, however, as the team has no clear replacement for him as of yet. Rookie Kaelon Black, yet another third-round swing at the position, was widely thought to be a reach in April’s draft. He’ll be battling with last year’s fifth-round selection Jordan James for backup duties.

There’s an outside chance that a contending team could be willing to come off a late 2027 first-round pick for the talented 30-year-old. But more likely, your return for McCaffrey will start with a second-round pick. If going this route, try to get another later pick, or a younger player. Maybe lil’ bro Luke McCaffrey, or someone in that range, to sprinkle in some upside.

CeeDee Lamb | WR, Dallas Cowboys

Still within his prime years, you may be surprised to see CeeDee Lamb listed here. However, hitting the right sell window on a player of this caliber could net you a big-time return. In each of the last three years, Lamb has seen a drop in games played, targets, receptions, receiving yards, touchdowns, and, naturally, fantasy points per game.

Fellow wideout George Pickens is ranked just four spots behind Lamb in the PlayerProfiler Dynasty Rankings, and the gap is closing. Should Pickens outperform Lamb again this year under his franchise tag, he could usurp the No. 1 role moving forward. If he doesn’t, Lamb would not see a significant rise in value, as he would then be approaching his age-30 season.

In return for the former Oklahoma Sooner, you could easily net a mid-2027-first-round pick plus. That “plus” would obviously vary depending on a multitude of things. Each league has its own market, which can depend on the number of active teams (each with subjective views on players and their worth), in addition to all the variations in roster and scoring settings.

In most leagues, however, something like a mid-first and a younger, not-quite-proven player makes sense. Guys like Braelon Allen, Tank Dell, Gunnar Helm, and Skyler Bell come to mind.

Patrick Mahomes | QB, Kansas City Chiefs

Way back when Patrick Mahomes was a rookie in 2017, he started just one game. From the following season until now, Mahomes, to many, has been the new face of the NFL. He started his tenure as the Chiefs’ franchise quarterback with five straight seasons as the QB6 or better in fantasy points per game. The last of those seasons was 2022, when he finished as the QB2. Since then, he has topped out at 27 passing touchdowns (2023). A steep drop from the 41 he threw in 2022.

Mahomes returned to prominence last year, finishing again as the QB2 in points per game. He did so, however, by leaning heavily on his opportunistic scrambling. The Texas Tech alum rushed for a career-high 422 yards and five rushing touchdowns. The only problem with that is that he tore the ACL and LCL in his left knee in the Chiefs’ Week 15 game against the Chargers.

He now enters KC’s training camp in a knee brace. And he’s been all but guaranteeing he’ll be ready for Week 1. Maybe he will be, but if he is, it won’t be as the willing scrambler he was last year.

The hype is there for Mahomes to come back strong. And as a competitor and as a winner, I’m not about to bet against this guy. But it’s quite possible his best days as an elite fantasy quarterback are behind him. Even if he were to recoup some of his early-career glory in the next couple of years, his value will not rise to the point it is now.

In a Superflex league, Mahomes can easily net you a return close to that of Lamb mentioned above. In some leagues, you can really squeeze some juice from QB. A mid-to-late 2027 first-round pick and a 2028 first could easily be on the table for the stalwart attached to Andy Reid.

These “Young Bucks” are MOONBOUND

Put out offers for these players in all your leagues, and target them in your upcoming season-long drafts. Their values are about to skyrocket!

Cam Ward | QB, Tennessee Titans

Cam Ward had his share of troubles as a rookie. Indeed, Ward was slow out the gate. He finished in the bottom six at his position in five of his first six games. But the former Miami Hurricane certainly flashed some of the amazing ability that got him selected at the top of his draft.

His biggest “flash” was, in fact, a damn-near perfect game against the would-be Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks. The box score stats are good, but not awe-inspiring. For that, you need to watch the game. There was a pro-level mix of taking what the defense was giving, scrambling when the lanes were there, and making crazy off-script plays.

The 2025 first overall pick is frequently ranked right near (usually behind) this year’s 1.01, Fernando Mendoza. I understand it to a point, but their ceilings are not in the same class. Mendoza figures to peak, hopefully, as a back-end QB 1 type. Ward’s potential ceiling as an elite fantasy QB is largely overlooked.

In year two, Ward finds himself under new Head Coach Robert Saleh and his newly assembled coaching staff. Leading the offense will be former Giants’ Head Coach Brian Daboll. Daboll has an impressive track record working with talented quarterbacks. Most recently, he helped Jaxson Dart along his impressive rookie season. Most notably, he oversaw the development of Josh Allen as Offensive Coordinator in Buffalo from 2018 through 2021.

2026 also brings Ward a new offensive weapon: Carnell Tate. Tate was the fourth overall selection in April’s draft, and figures to step in right away as the team’s WR1. They can certainly use the sure-handed stud from Ohio State. The Titans were fifth last year in dropped passes with 25.

Players in the same value range as Ward include Quinshon Judkins, Christian McCaffrey, and A.J. Brown. In terms of picks, expect to shell out a mid-first.

Jonathon Brooks | RB, Carolina Panthers

It’s already starting; the steam is building behind Jonathon Brooks. He is slowly creeping up in rankings and ADP. The second-round pick from 2024 has just 12 total touches to his name as a pro. He’s since undergone two surgeries (it was reported recently that the most recent reconstruction was to repair the same injury).

Now back at training camp, practicing in full pads, Brooks can begin his career anew. The former Texas Longhorn looks to display his versatility, speed, and pass-catching chops to gain favor with a coaching staff that wants him to succeed.

It’s also worth noting Jonathon Brooks‘ youth. Though this technically is his third season in the league, Brooks is more than two years younger than Denver’s second-year back, R.J. Harvey.

Brooks can be had for a 2027 second-round pick, or a player like Xavier Worthy.

Tank Dell | WR, Houston Texans

After missing the entire 2025 season, C.J. Stroud‘s favorite receiver returns for training camp having avoided the PUP list. In the 14 games he played in 2024, Tank Dell accrued 51 receptions on 81 targets for 667 yards. Many gamers and analysts are drafting as if second-year wideout Jayden Higgins is the de facto second option behind incumbent alpha Nico Collins. I’m here to tell you, “Not so fast, my friend!”

The team is still ramping him up in camp as I write this. But if Dell is truly healthy and can get back to 100%, he could easily be the number-two target-earner on this offense. Houston could use his route-running chops, for sure. Stroud’s Receiver Target Separation was a paltry 1.6. In fact, the quarterback’s Supporting Cast Efficiency was also tanked, ranking 30th in the league at 7.1.

Of course, this is also a bet on C.J. Stroud. The former second overall pick is entering a pivotal fourth season with the Texans. The team has continued building around Stroud. For all the struggles last season, Stroud actually improved his QBR to 62.4 from 54.4 in 2024. Furthermore, GM Nick Caserio and Co. added much-needed help to the offensive line and a dependable lead-back in David Montgomery. Look for Stroud to come through in this “make or break” season, and for Tank Dell to be a big reason why.

Offering up one of Tank Bigsby, Juwan Johnson, or a 2027 third-round pick could net you Tank Dell.

Terrance Ferguson | TE, Los Angeles Rams

Last, but certainly not least, Terrance Ferguson could certainly be the one who impresses the most of these four “buys.”

Terrance Ferguson‘s Athletic Profile

In his rookie year, Ferguson did not help your fantasy team, aside from three or four weeks when he could’ve served as a replacement-level piece. In fact, his game log is marred by not just one, two, three, or four goose-eggs, but eight.

However, the former Oregon Duck flashed, to be sure. He ranked first among tight ends in Deep Targets, garnering 14 out of his lackluster 25 total targets. His 466 Air Yards, 275 Unrealized Air Yards, and 127.9 Explosive Rating hint (not very subtly) that the McVay and co. have a plan for this youngin’.

Additionally, the rookie who racked up 16 touchdowns as a collegiate was lined up in the slot on 89 of his 356 offensive snaps in LA. One doesn’t have to do a lot of mental gymnastics to see Ferguson as the third option in this bountiful fantasy ecosystem. Wheels Up!!

Terrance Ferguson‘s price is currently in the range of a late second-round pick in superflex leagues. In terms of players, think guys like Rashid Shaheed, Germie Bernard, Tyler Allgeier, or Nicholas Singleton.



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Many Successes,

Kyle

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