High Value Touch DFS Index – Week 18

by Mark Kieffer · Value Plays
antonio-gibson-fantasy-football

The High Value Touch DFS Index is here to help you find the best plays for the dollar in DFS. This is done by looking at leaders in Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and comparing their prices on DraftKings and FanDuel to create a rating. We weigh targets higher than carries and take it a step further to weigh it higher on DraftKings (PPR scoring) vs. FanDuel (Half PPR scoring). We look at these touches close to the end zone because touchdowns lead to fantasy points, and fantasy points lead to cashing our lineups in DFS!

I am writing this up as of 1/7/2022. This last week is a tough week. Check the news, players could be held out at any time and as we saw in previous games could get moved to other dates. Stay up to date on the latest news. If anyone listed here is out, don’t play them.

Let’s see what the index is looking like this week:

Top 5 Values:

5) James Conner: $6,100 on DraftKings, $6,700 on FanDuel

High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 17.76 (No. 6)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 16.00 (No. 4)

Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 1.92 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.0 per game

James Conner is back at No. 5 this week on the Index. Unlike last week, he is looking like a strong cash game play (if healthy) with Chase Edmonds ruled out of the game.  His 1.92 carries inside the 10-yard line per game is No. 3 on the slate, behind Jonathan Taylor and Dalvin Cook at a steep discount. Having the monopoly of goal-line carries, and no competition for touches from Edmonds, makes Conner an interesting play here in Week 18 as he is both cash game and tournament viable.

4) David Montgomery: $6,800 on DraftKings, $7,600 on FanDuel

High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 18.82 (No. 5)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 16.00 (No. 4)

Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 1.75 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.17 per game

David Montgomery Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

David Montgomery comes in at No. 4 this week again as well against the Vikings. His 1.75 carries inside the 10-yard line per game is No. 5 among running backs on the slate. Minnesota has the No. 27 rush defense in the league, presenting a potentially good opportunity for Montgomery.

3) Antonio Gibson: $5,800 on DraftKings, $6,800 on FanDuel 

High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 22.64 (No. 3)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 17.75 (No. 3)

Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 1.53 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.27 per game

Antonio Gibson‘s 1.53 carries inside the 10-yard line is No. 7 among running backs on the slate. His 0.27 targets inside the 10-yard line per game is No. 6 among running backs on the slate as well. The Giants are a soft opponent, the No. 23 rush defense in the NFL. In Week 2 against the Giants, Gibson had 13 carries for 69 yards at 5.3 yards per carry.

2) Zack Moss: $5,800 on DraftKings, $6,200 on FanDuel

High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 23.42 (No. 2)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 20.20 (No. 2)

Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 1.33 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.25 per game

After being a healthy scratch for a couple of weeks, Zack Moss has played the last two. The bad news is that he has had eight total carries in those two games. Moss is not someone you can roster in Week 18 unless some news comes out the day of the game that he will get all of the carries in the game. That could potentially happen in the event that Buffalo’s playoff seed is locked up by the time the game starts. Unless something like that happens, Moss is someone to fade in Week 18.

1) Myles Gaskin: $4,800 on DraftKings, $5,400 on FanDuel

High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 27.53 (No. 1)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 21.70 (No. 1)

Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 1.25 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.38 per game

Myles Gaskin 2021 Game Logs

Myles Gaskin finds himself No. 1 on the list for another week. Gaskin’s 0.38 targets inside the 10-yard line per game is No. 4 among running backs on the slate. The bad news is he has had just eight carries the last two weeks combined as well as Duke Johnson has grabbed a majority of carries here late in the season.

Just Missed The Cut

Here are the players that just missed the cut in the index for Week 18:

DraftKings: Tevin Coleman (19.09), Damien Harris (16.70), Jonathan Taylor (16.70)
FanDuel: Tevin Coleman (15.20), Damien Harris (15.12), Jonathan Taylor (14.94)

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Final Thoughts

James Conner, David Montgomery, and Antonio Gibson are all cash and tournament viable in Week 18, making for great plays. Myles Gaskin and Zack Moss at this moment in time look like players to fade. Check the news updates for the early games and the late games in the event there are some unexpected surprises.

Best of luck in Week 18!