Welcome to my DFS Best Plays series, where I detail my favorite cost-adjusted plays across the Sunday DraftKings Main Slate. Last weekend, we had a mixed bag. Dak Prescott and Chase Brown gave serviceable results. Zay Flowers had a disastrous game, playing most of it with his third-string quarterback. KC Concepcion disappointed, with the Steelers’ defense taking him out of the game. Hunter Henry was on his way to a good game but left with an injury. Here’s to a bounce-back week.
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DFS Best Plays | Week 9
Malik Willis, QB Dolphins vs. the Lions
The Numbers:
- Salary – $5,100
- Game Total – 50.5
- Dolphins Implied Total – 21.75
- DraftKings PPG – 15.6
- Defensive Rank vs Position – 32nd
The Why:
Malik Willis has been playing better as of late. Part of that is due to an easier schedule, and part is due to this young offense growing together. We’d like Willis to be running more on a consistent basis, but we know he’s still one of the better rushing quarterbacks in the league. This week, Willis has another advantageous matchup that he can produce against. Additionally, the Lions will easily score on the Dolphins, leading to a catch-up game script for Willis. This game is tied for the second-highest game total on the slate. We want to attack those games.
Christian McCaffrey, RB 49ers vs. the Raiders
The Numbers:
- Salary – $8,000
- Game Total – 52.5
- 49ers Implied Total – 31.00
- DraftKings PPG – 20.7
- Defensive Rank vs Position – 26th
The Why:
Week 9 is a week for paying up at running back. There aren’t too many great mid-priced or cheaper running backs that stand out this week. Tyler Allgeier and Jonah Coleman are viable options, and you can pair them with Christian McCaffrey, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if neither has a big game. McCaffrey is still playing well, has a great matchup, and his offense has the highest implied team total of the slate. This one is easy.
Antonio Williams, WR Commanders vs. the Rams
The Numbers:
- Salary – $4,100
- Game Total – 47.5
- Commanders Implied Total – 21.5
- DraftKings PPG – 7.8
- Defensive Rank vs Position – 5th
The Why:
With so few cheap running backs I feel good about on this slate, I’m paying down at wide receiver, and that starts with Antonio Williams. His role in the offense, even early on before any injuries to those around him, was impressive considering his draft capital. That role has only grown, and he’s now operating the Commanders’ WR1 without Terry McLaurin. This isn’t a great matchup on paper, but this is a contest where the Commanders are likely to be playing from behind and passing often. At his price tag, we don’t need much, and he should get there.
Efton Chism III, WR Patriots vs. the Packers
The Numbers:
- Salary – $3,600
- Game Total – 46.5
- Patriots Implied Total – 24.75
- DraftKings PPG – 5.1
- Defensive Rank vs Position – 24th
The Why:
Efton Chism III started his career basically as a meme, but when he’s gotten an opportunity, he’s always played well. With injuries piling up among New England’s pass catchers, Chism reached a season-high in snaps and routes last week. That should continue in Week 9. The Packers will be able to put up points against the Patriots, forcing a competitive game script in which Drake Maye will have plenty of pass attempts. It will take very little for Chism to make good on his salary, so he’s a great punt option at wide receiver this week.
Sam LaPorta, TE Lions vs. the Dolphins
The Numbers:
- Salary – $5,100
- Game Total – 50.5
- Lions Implied Total – 28.75
- DraftKings PPG – 12.3
- Defensive Rank vs Position – 30th
The Why:
We continue to attack the Dolphins’ defense at tight end this week. This season, the Dolphins have allowed only one fewer touchdown to tight ends than they’ve forced incompletions when targeting the position. Read that last sentence again because it’s truly wild. We have no doubts about Sam LaPorta‘s talent and role on one of the best offenses in the NFL. This is a nice, simple play. A great player in a great matchup.
