PlayerProfiler is home to award-winning dynasty rankings and tools. Our Dynasty Deluxe package includes complete Dynasty Rankings, Rookie Rankings, Trade Analyzer, Draft Planner, Mock Drafts, and more. Check it out! Below, Wolf Trelles-Heard picks one draft value and one fade from the AFC West.
It’s August, so that means redraft season is fully upon us. I wanted to highlight some current values across the fantasy landscape as people prepare for their home and work drafts. The division I’m focusing on today is the AFC West, and highlighting one player I think is a draft value and one I believe should be faded at cost. For this series, I’ll be using Underdog’s ADP.
Hope you find this info useful and include it in your draft prep to help dominate your leagues.
Also, check out the one draft value and one fade from the NFC North, NFC East, NFC South, NFC West, AFC North, AFC East, and AFC South.
Draft Value: Jakobi Meyers, Las Vegas Raiders (ADP 71.0, WR40)
Jimmy Garoppolo. Aidan O’Connell. Gardner Minshew. Desmond Ridder. Brian Hoyer.
That quintet is who Jakobi Meyers had to catch passes from over the past two seasons in Las Vegas. Not exactly a Murderers’ Row of quarterbacks right there.
Even with that bottom-tier bunch, Meyers has produced on the field and delivered solid returns for fantasy managers. After averaging 13.7 fantasy points per game and finishing as the WR24 in 2023, Meyers took another step last season, posting a career-best in yardage. He ended the year with 87 receptions, 1,027 yards, and four touchdowns. His 14.5 points per game were good for a WR19 finish in PPR scoring.
Jakobi Meyers’ Advanced Metrics
This offseason, Las Vegas made sweeping changes, and they all appear to be good news for Meyers as he heads into a contract year:
Competent Coaches
- New head coach Pete Carroll. He brings a plethora of success and experience to the Raiders. With 170 career NFL wins and a Super Bowl title under his belt, Carroll isn’t there to rebuild. Given his age, 73, Carroll is looking to win right away and fight for an AFC West title, something they haven’t won since 2002.
- New offense coordinator Chip Kelly. Fresh off a National Championship with Ohio State, Kelly is known for being an aggressive and up-tempo play-caller. He’s tasked with elevating an offense that averaged just 303.2 yards per game last year. Outside of tight end Brock Bowers, Meyers should have the most targets in this new, improved offense.
New Offensive Weapons
- A proficient QB in Geno Smith. The Raiders traded for Smith, who played for Carroll in Seattle. Since his career resurgence in 2022, Smith has averaged 4,074 passing yards and nearly 24 touchdowns per season, while completing a career-high 70.4 percent of his passes last season. He’s a major upgrade from what Meyers has dealt with previously.
- Rookie running back Ashton Jeanty. The No. 6 overall pick out of Boise State was picked to help fix a run game that ranked dead last in 2024. Jeanty pounding the rock will extend drives and increase scoring opportunities for the offense.
Every year, we fade Meyers because he’s not a “sexy” selection, and every year, he outperforms his ADP. Nabbing steady producers like Meyers is what helps you survive the grind of injuries and bye weeks. Take advantage of the value and enjoy the WR2 output Meyers provides – he’s one of the better mid-round picks you can make.
Draft Fade: Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs (ADP 40.2, WR21)
You’d think that someone who broke the NFL Combine 40-yard dash record would have a rookie season packed with electric, game-breaking highlights.
Think again.
Xavier Worthy’s Advanced Metrics
Despite a blazing 4.21 time in the league’s “Underwear Olympics,” Xavier Worthy struggled to turn that elite speed into splash plays in 2025. Among eligible wide receivers, he ranked just no. 72 in Explosive Play Rating and no. 74 in total explosive plays with only six on the season.
A big part of the issue? The Chiefs just didn’t dial up a ton of downfield looks for him. Worthy ranked No. 33 in deep targets (17 total) and No. 48 in air yards (904). Even when the deep shots came, the quality was poor: Worthy’s target quality rating ranked no. 59, and QB Patrick Mahomes, uncharacteristically, was abysmal with a 26.5-percent deep ball completion percentage, which ranked No. 34 in the league.
The rest of Worthy’s efficiency metrics weren’t any better:
Xavier Worthy’s efficiency metrics
Worthy did come out hot with a 2-TD performance opening night against the Ravens. After that, there were a lot more downs than ups until his role shifted in Week 11. After attempting to feature DeAndre Hopkins and JuJu Smith-Schuster to no avail, the Chiefs slid Worthy into the “Rashee Rice” role, peppering him with low aDot targets instead of the occasional deep shot or gadget play.
From Weeks 11-17, Worthy averaged 7.9 targets per game and caught 39 passes for 392 yards and three touchdowns. He averaged 15.6 fantasy points per game, good for WR24 during that span. He stayed hot in the playoffs, adding 19 receptions for 287 yards and 3 more touchdowns through the Super Bowl loss to the Eagles.
That strong finish has stuck in the minds of drafters and pushed Worthy’s ADP into the mid-Round 4 range. I’m just not convinced he’s going to pay off at that price.
Crowded Receiver Room
For one, the man whose role he inherited is back. Rice is seemingly healthy after suffering a torn LCL in Week 4 of last season. While he’s facing a multi-game suspension for off-field issues, he’s expected to reclaim his role as the team’s short-area target hog once he returns.
Travis Kelce is also back to try and help the Chiefs win their 10th-straight AFC West title and reach their fourth consecutive Super Bowl. At 35, Taylor Swift’s boyfriend isn’t the force he used to be, but he still commands targets and has an amazing rapport with Mahomes. The team also re-signed veterans Hollywood Brown and Smith-Schuster and spent a Round 4 pick on Jalen Royals in April.
All of them will siphon a few looks, leaving fewer opportunities for Worthy to build on his late-season momentum.
Worthy’s profile reminds me of T.Y. Hilton – he’ll go quiet for a few weeks, then pop for a random 6-catch, 150-yard, and 2-TD performance. Good luck figuring out when. He’s a boom-or-bust flex play, and that’s not something I want to spend early draft capital on in redraft.
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Wolf Trelles-Heard is a fantasy football contributor for PlayerProfiler. Find him on X at @DynastyFFWolf.
