PlayerProfiler is home to award-winning dynasty rankings and tools. Our Dynasty Deluxe package includes complete Dynasty Rankings, Rookie Rankings, Trade Analyzer, Draft Planner, Mock Drafts, and more. Check it out! Below, Jeffrey Waalkes looks at RB Sleepers & Busts for 2025.
Also, check out Jeffrey’s QB Sleepers & Busts.
Every fantasy football season is shaped by two crucial types of players: sleepers who shatter expectations and busts who crater teams by underperforming their draft cost. Knowing which backs are poised to break out — and which ones could burn a premium pick — can be the difference between a playoff run and a waiver-wire scramble by Week 4.
Below, we spotlight three running back sleepers with league-winning upside, followed by three high-risk backs who may not live up to their current ADPs. Let’s dive into the undervalued names first.
Sleepers
Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans
Tyjae Spears’ Advanced Metrics
Don’t make the mistake of labeling Tyjae Spears as just another handcuff. He’s not. When healthy and given the opportunity, Spears has already proven he can be a featured back — and not just survive the workload, but thrive under it.
Yes, Spears battled through an injury-plagued 2024: an ankle twist in Week 2, a hamstring pull in Week 6, and two concussions in Weeks 11 and 17. But when you isolate the games where he was healthy and fully utilized, the upside becomes crystal clear.
Take Week 17, for example. With Tony Pollard sidelined, Spears took over the backfield and handled 20 touches, racking up 122 total yards and a touchdown against a playoff-contending defense. He looked explosive, decisive, and capable of shouldering a full RB1 workload. That wasn’t a fluke — it was a glimpse of what Spears can bring if the Titans open the playbook wider in 2025.
Even in a limited role last season, Spears made noise. He finished with:
- 52 receptions for 385 yards — one of just 33 rookie RBs since 1970 to top 50 catches.
- 14th in yards per carry.
- 4th in missed tackles forced per attempt.
- 11th in yards after contact per attempt.
In the 10 games both Spears and Pollard played healthy, Pollard had more volume — 13.3 carries to Spears’ 5.8, and 3.5 targets to 2.9 — but context matters. Spears was often managing injuries during those splits, and Titans coaches knew it.
2025
Now? There’s reason to believe the backfield division is about to shift.
New head coach Brian Callahan has emphasized the need for a more balanced workload, saying this offseason:
“In a perfect world, it’s a healthier division of labor… I think we can do a better job of managing that load so they both play a little more evenly.”
Pollard was solid but unspectacular in 2024, logging over 1,300 total yards but showing clear signs of wear late in the year. Spears, on the other hand, offers a dynamic skill set and has shown he can handle 15+ touches when needed. With a current ADP around RB40, Spears isn’t just a value — he’s a player with upside, even without an injury to Pollard.
And if anything does happen to Pollard? Spears immediately enters league-winning territory.
Ray Davis, Buffalo Bills
Ray Davis’ Advanced Metrics
Buffalo’s Ray Davis may not be a household fantasy name — yet. But that could change quickly in 2025.
While most of the offseason buzz has swirled around James Cook’s contract situation, the bigger takeaway for fantasy managers should be how Davis already carved out a legitimate role in Buffalo’s high-powered offense as a rookie. Even if Cook’s holdout proves short-lived, Davis is set up to matter — possibly in a big way.
Davis entered the league with the “power back” label, but don’t let that fool you. On film, he was a walking missed tackle, consistently slipping through arm tackles with deceptive quickness and underrated footwork. That blend of shiftiness and strength gave Buffalo confidence to use him behind (and sometimes alongside) Cook, especially late in the year.
Assuming Cook reports and remains healthy, Davis still profiles as a valuable complementary piece — the type of back who could earn 8-12 touches per game, especially in red zone or short-yardage packages. That puts him squarely in weekly consideration in standard and half-PPR formats.
But the real juice in this sleeper profile? If Cook misses time. Davis has the build, vision, and contact balance to step into a full-featured workload — the kind of back who won’t need to come off the field. And Buffalo hasn’t been shy about using committees. With Cook trending toward passing-down usage, Davis could see his role grow regardless.
With an ADP buried outside the top 45 RBs, Davis is a prime late-round lottery ticket with both floor and ceiling.
Jarquez Hunter, Los Angeles Rams
Jarquez Hunter’s Advanced Metrics
Former Auburn RB Jarquez Hunter enters his rookie season buried on redraft boards, behind Kyren Williams and Blake Corum in the Rams’ backfield. But that depth chart may not be as stable as it looks — and Hunter is exactly the kind of late-round flier who could explode in the right scenario.
A multi-year contributor at Auburn, Hunter stood out for his balance and slipperiness between the tackles. He posted the fifth-best avoided tackles per attempt in the 2024 draft class and often looked like the better early-down option than Tank Bigsby while sharing a backfield.
While his receiving production was limited, that was a function of Auburn’s system more than Hunter’s hands. He flashed open-field creativity and toughness on the rare checkdowns he did receive.
Right now, Hunter is behind Williams and Corum. But if Corum falters — as he did in 2024 — and if Williams gets nicked up, Hunter could leap into the most valuable RB role in fantasy: Sean McVay’s bell cow. And with the Rams’ offensive line quietly improving, Hunter’s fit as a one-cut, downhill runner could click fast.
His fantasy projections may look irrelevant now, but the upside far exceeds nearly every RB being taken in the final rounds.
Busts
We’ve covered the breakout potentials. Now let’s flip the coin.
Every year, fantasy drafters reach for “safe” names that turn out to be nothing but frustrating flex plays or worse. Whether it’s due to inflated touchdown numbers, shaky depth chart situations, or looming competition, these next running backs carry far more downside than their current draft cost suggests.
Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers
Jaylen Warren Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
For a brief moment, it looked like Jaylen Warren would finally step into Pittsburgh’s RB1 role after Najee Harris was let go. But that door quickly closed when the Steelers drafted Kaleb Johnson — a rugged, downhill runner from Iowa who profiles as a better version of Harris.
Johnson racked up over 1,700 scrimmage yards and 23 touchdowns in his final college season. His pass-blocking, physicality, and early-down efficiency make him an instant threat to Warren’s touches, especially in goal-line situations.
Warren still has FLEX value in PPR formats, but with Johnson likely to handle early downs and red zone work, Warren feels locked into a complementary role once again. If Johnson sticks, Warren may never reach weekly starter value.
Joe Mixon, Houston Texans
Joe Mixon’s Advanced Metrics
Last season, Joe Mixon stormed out of the gates, quickly establishing himself as a top-three fantasy running back over the first half of the season. But that momentum came to a halt when it mattered most. Mixon was nearly unstartable during the fantasy playoffs, failing to score a single touchdown over the final four weeks as the Texans’ offense sputtered.
Now heading into 2025, Mixon faces a two-front challenge that makes repeating that early-season success unlikely. First, the Texans brought in Nick Chubb, still recovering from injury, but a significant threat to Mixon’s workload once healthy. Second, Mixon himself is starting the season on the PUP list, adding yet another red flag for fantasy managers considering him at his current ADP.
At 28 years old with considerable wear, Mixon has never been known for explosive plays or high efficiency. His fantasy value has largely been touchdown-dependent, and if those dry up again—especially with a stronger backfield rotation—he could quickly become a liability. With Houston’s offensive line still inconsistent and limited receiving options beyond Nico Collins, defenses will continue to key in on the run game.
Mixon is currently being drafted as a fringe RB1, but the risks far outweigh the upside. There are more dynamic, better-situated backs available later in drafts. Mixon looks like a player best left off your roster in 2025.
James Cook, Buffalo Bills
James Cook’s Advanced Metrics
In 2024, James Cook’s RB8 finish came on the back of 18 total touchdowns, but that number screams regression. Nearly 43 percent of his fantasy points came via touchdowns, despite having fewer touches than the year before.
Even more concerning, his route participation dropped from 45.9 percent to 27.4 percent, while Ty Johnson and others cut into his passing-down work. Add in the emergence of Ray Davis and an unresolved contract holdout — Cook reportedly wants $15 million per year — and you’ve got a high-risk pick wrapped in shiny stats.
At RB14 ADP, you’re paying top dollar for last year’s ceiling. Safer options like Kenneth Walker III or higher-upside backs like RJ Harvey offer far better value without the red flags.
Final Thoughts: Tilt the Odds in Your Favor
Fantasy football is a game of probability, not certainty. The best managers consistently tilt the odds by targeting undervalued upside and fading overpriced risk. Players like Spears, Davis, and Hunter are low-cost bets with massive ceilings. Meanwhile, investing early-round capital in volatile backs like Cook, Mixon, or Warren could sink your roster if the cracks begin to show.
Draft wisely. Stack value. And don’t fall in love with last year’s box scores — 2025 is a brand new game.
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