Tyler Warren

After securing a four-year, $114 million extension on the heels of a 51.8-percent Air Yards Share, Alec Pierce faces risk of missing regular-season time following a second PRP injection for his delayed ankle recovery. Indianapolis committed WR1 money to a young player who commanded an 18.0-percent Target Share while trading away Michael Pittman.

Even after being activated, Pierce will require several weeks to gain full confidence in his lower body. Meanwhile, fellow starter Josh Downs is also dealing with a minor groin injury. When Downs returns, he and tight end Tyler Warren will be first in line absorb the vacated target volume during Pierce’s absence. Pierce is a sell and Downs and Warren are buys based on this injury alone. Even the forgotten Ashton Dulin‘s ADP is starting to creep up across all fantasy football draft formats.

UPDATE: Colts general manager Chris Ballard insists that Alec Pierce did not receive a second PRP injection. Stay tuned for the next episode of Anklegate.

Daniel Jones is officially cleared for all football activities following his Week 14 Achilles tear, keeping him firmly on track for the season opener. Before going down, he operated as a legitimate efficiency engine, averaging 20.0 Fantasy Points Per Game to rank as the fantasy QB5 through his first 10 contests.

While he admits to mentally processing the recovery during practice reps, his 71.7-percent True Completion Percentage indicate that the baseline talent remains locked in once he fully trusts his lower body. Representing the ultimate inexpensive QB upside, Jones is a smash at his current fantasy football best ball and dynasty league draft position.

Josh Downs is currently Indy’s go-to wide receiver and projects to hog targets early in the season. With Alec Pierce working with the medical staff instead of training, Downs is earning outside snaps after he commanded a 23.6-percent Target Rate last season.

While Downs is teed up to be a target monster in 2026, Moore also reported that Pierce “is expected to receive close to double the number of targets than a season ago, when he received a career-high 84.” However, Pierce earned a mere 18.0-percent Target Share and an 18.3-percent Target Rate last season and is actively recovering from offseason ankle surgery.

Moore’s target share prediction math does not add up. The facts on the ground suggest Downs will be the Colts’ target leader, and Indianapolis management is practicing cognitive dissonance after signing an injured Pierce to a  $114 contract. Savvy fantasy managers will be drafting Downs with confidence in best ball, dynasty and seasonal leagues while taking a wait-and-see approach on Pierce in fantasy football.

After vacuuming up a team-high 112 targets to match franchise legend Marvin Harrison as the only rookies in Indianapolis history to lead the team in receiving, Tyler Warren is refining his route-running execution to handle an expanded focal role following the departure of Michael Pittman. A usage spike would secure his high-floor projection as a top-tier fantasy tight end, especially with Alec Pierce‘s return date unknown.

Warren’s projectable ceiling climbs even further as starting quarterback Daniel Jones hits his recovery milestones from an Achilles tear to anchor this vertical attack by training camp. Given the the friendly target share dynamics, Warren is a true threat to Trey McBride to be the fantasy TE2 in 2026.

Daniel Jones has progressed to throwing the football, though head coach Shane Steichen emphasized that the team will remain cautious regarding his availability for the start of the season. While Riley Leonard is currently slated as the backup, Anthony Richardson’s status for the No. 2 role remains uncertain as he continues to recover from a right eye injury.

Lingering health questions leave Indy’s quarterback depth chart in flux as the team monitors how both players’ rehab progresses this summer. When healthy, Daniel Jones is the starting quarterback, and he is a sneaky value in best ball and superflex dynasty leagues.