Josh Downs is currently Indy’s go-to wide receiver and projects to hog targets early in the season. With Alec Pierce working with the medical staff instead of training, Downs is earning outside snaps after he commanded a 23.6-percent Target Rate last season.
While Downs is teed up to be a target monster in 2026, Moore also reported that Pierce “is expected to receive close to double the number of targets than a season ago, when he received a career-high 84.” However, Pierce earned a mere 18.0-percent Target Share and an 18.3-percent Target Rate last season and is actively recovering from offseason ankle surgery.
Moore’s target share prediction math does not add up. The facts on the ground suggest Downs will be the Colts’ target leader, and Indianapolis management is practicing cognitive dissonance after signing an injured Pierce to a $114 contract. Savvy fantasy managers will be drafting Downs with confidence in best ball, dynasty and seasonal leagues while taking a wait-and-see approach on Pierce in fantasy football.
Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones (Achilles), who...
Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones (Achilles) was ...
Indianapolis Colts head coach Shane Steichen said on Friday ...
After vacuuming up a team-high 112 targets to match franchise legend Marvin Harrison as the only rookies in Indianapolis history to lead the team in receiving, Tyler Warren is refining his route-running execution to handle an expanded focal role following the departure of Michael Pittman. A usage spike would secure his high-floor projection as a top-tier fantasy tight end, especially with Alec Pierce‘s return date unknown.
Warren’s projectable ceiling climbs even further as starting quarterback Daniel Jones hits his recovery milestones from an Achilles tear to anchor this vertical attack by training camp. Given the the friendly target share dynamics, Warren is a true threat to Trey McBride to be the fantasy TE2 in 2026.
The departure of Michael Pittman vacates 111 targets and a 21.0-percent Target Share (No. 42) from the Indianapolis passing game. This leaves massive opportunity for Alec Pierce, who is coming off a massive 1,593 Air Yards (No. 3) season but is in danger of starting the season on the PUP. Beyond Pierce and the slot-bound Josh Downs, who posted a modest 8.5 Fantasy Points Per Game (No. 51), Ashton Dulin is next in line for targets from the Colts shallow wide receiver room.
Ashton Dulin just needs to hold off Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Laquon Treadwell to potentially open the season as the starter in 2-receiver sets(!), depending on Pierce’s ankle surgery recovery timeline. Dulin is a sneaky add in the deepest dynasty and best ball fantasy football formats.
Alec Pierce secured a four-year, $114 million contract extension after recording a 51.8-percent Air Yards Share and averaging 21.3 Yards Per Reception last season. Now he faces a tight 4-6 month recovery timetable following ankle surgery per Mike Chappell. This timeline puts Pierce’s availability for the start of the season very much in jeopardy.
While Indy’s deep threat rehabs, Josh Downs and Tyler Warren are executing reps on the field to command early chemistry in this passing game. Pierce is now set up for a slow start to the season and will be a polarizing buy-low candidate as the season goes along.
Daniel Jones has progressed to throwing the football, though head coach Shane Steichen emphasized that the team will remain cautious regarding his availability for the start of the season. While Riley Leonard is currently slated as the backup, Anthony Richardson’s status for the No. 2 role remains uncertain as he continues to recover from a right eye injury.
Lingering health questions leave Indy’s quarterback depth chart in flux as the team monitors how both players’ rehab progresses this summer. When healthy, Daniel Jones is the starting quarterback, and he is a sneaky value in best ball and superflex dynasty leagues.
Daniel Jones is currently shredding his Achilles recovery protocol, and with Chris Ballard officially endorsing his progress, he is the locked-and-loaded starter for Indy in 2026. Before the tear, Jones was a high-level efficiency engine, ranking No. 6 in Dropback EPA with a career-high 68.0% Completion Percentage and a 100.2 Passer Rating that screams high-end fantasy value.
With Anthony Richardson essentially out of the picture and Riley Leonard looming as the No. 2 insurance policy, the runway is clear for Jones to be the undisputed centerpiece of this Colts offensive machine.
