NFL

Last season, Aaron Jones ended up as one of the league’s most efficient running backs with a +29.7 (No. 7 among qualified running backs) Production Premium. This year, Jones ranks No. 13 with 5.5 Yards per Touch and No. 11 with a +25.0 Production Premium, meaning he’s extremely efficient with the opportunities given. Since he ranks highly in Weighted Opportunities, targets, receptions, and receiving yards, it provides optimism moving forward.

With so many opportunities, we hoped that David Montgomery would be better in terms of efficiency. He has a 72.2-percent (No. 7) Snap Share, 69.1-percent (No. 10) Opportunity Share, and 143.0 (No. 10) Weighted Opportunities. With the high volume, we expect his production to improve. However, Montgomery hasn’t displayed productivity OR efficiency to this point in the year. When we consider the struggles and injuries at quarterback, it provides more reasons for concern.

XFL aficionados kept a close eye on P.J. Walker’s first NFL start. The former Houston Roughneck led the XFL in passing with 1,338 yards and 15 TDs before the league folded midseason. While Walker led the Panthers to a 20-0 win against the flailing Lions, he didn’t do anything to jeopardize Teddy Bridgewater’s starting job. His weak fantasy outing (12 points) and Bridgewater’s potential Week 12 return make him a low-priority add for QB-needy teams in deep leagues.

Fantasy gamers should leave Ryan Finley on the waiver wire. He’s a desperation add in deep 2QB/superflex leagues. Tee Higgins’ redraft value plummets with Finley under center and his safe weekly floor disappears. Including Week 11, Higgins has recorded only two games with fewer than 10 fantasy points. He becomes tough to trust in redraft lineups. Meanwhile, his buy window opens a crack in dynasty leagues given the significance of Joe Burrow’s injury and his uncertain future.

Now on the injured reserve, Drew Brees will miss a minimum of three games to recover from his list of ailments. Taysom Hill has been announced the starter for this week, surprising many who assumed Jameis Winston would get the call. Coach Sean Payton has stated he views Hill in the same vein as Hall of Famer Steve Young. Do we actually get to see what Hill can do with an offense now? Either way, temper expectations for the Saints pass-catchers.

Not only is Drew Brees out, but multiple other starting quarterbacks may also miss Sunday’s action. Should Teddy Bridgewater sit, which seems likely, Carolina will turn to either P.J. Walker or Will Grier. The pair have split first-team reps this week. While Grier has some starting experience from last year, he wasn’t very good in those starts. Walker was the start of the brief XFL resurgence, and should get the nod. If so, he makes an intriguing DFS play based on his scrambling ability.

Salvon Ahmed did enough to earn Miami’s backup gig, but he faces an uphill battle to fantasy relevancy given his lack of work in the passing game. His 5.6-percent (30th-percentile among qualified running backs) College Target Share and underwhelming workout metrics paint the picture of a potential two-down grinder. That, coupled with his middling 24.2-percent (49th-percentile) College Dominator Rating paint a grim picture for sustained fantasy relevance.

Ryan Nall’s failure to make an impact on Monday night makes him a low-priority waiver wire add in deeper dynasty leagues. He figures to be relegated to third-string duty with David Montgomery expected to return soon from injury. Montgomery hasn’t exactly lit the league on fire in his first two seasons, so Nall can still carve out a role as the season wanes. A testament to his receiving prowess, Nall earned a 10.2-percent (76th-percentile) College Target Share.

With David Johnson out in Houston, perhaps this Texans staff will give the other Johnson, Duke Johnson, an opportunity to shine. A reminder of his college production is in order; For Miami, the Duke posted a 33.0-percent (76th-percentile among qualified running backs) College Dominator Rating, 6.8 (90th-percentile) Yards Per Carry, and a 14.8-percent (93rd-percentile) Target Share. It’s been a while since those days, but this may be a proper chance for Johnson to prove his worth.

Preston Williams hits the inured reserve, taking a prime target away from newly-minted starting quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa. Look for tight end Mike Gesicki to benefit early on, as opposed to other receivers. Tight ends are like security blankets, right? However, one wideout to keep an eye on for the future is Kirk Merrit.

With D’Andre Swift’s role increasing, he ranks as Detroit’s most fantasy-relevant running back. Unless there’s an injury to Adrian Peterson, it doesn’t look like Swift’s Snap Share and opportunities will increase too significantly moving forward. Peterson’s role continues to decline with his primary involvement being in the rushing game. And although Kerryon Johnson also occasionally eats into Swift’s production and workload, continue to fire up Swift as an RB2 in PPR leagues.

The tricky part of navigating this Ravens backfields is accounting for the rushing ability and production of quarterback Lamar Jackson. The Ravens run a league-high 33.2 Team Run Plays per Game, but they unfortunately split up the touches three ways. Still, prioritize J.K. Dobbins in the Ravens backfield due to his involvement in the passing game, explosiveness, and efficiency. Prioritize Gus Edwards in non-PPR leagues and fade Mark Ingram in all formats. 

PlayerProfiler was built for guys like Kirk Merritt. What jumps off the page when visiting Merritt’s player profile? His workout metrics. Aside from an 11.17 (56th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) Agility Score, the undrafted receiver from Arkansas State boasts elite scores in all of his workout metrics. His elevation from the Dolphins practice squad and subsequent activation for the game earned him the top PPI ranking for Week 9.

Jake Luton offers an upside waiver wire pickup in 2QB/superflex season-long leagues, or a streaming option in traditional formats. Coming off his strong first start, dynasty gamers should look to sell high. His weak prospect profile, underwhelming workout metrics and low draft capital diminish his chances for long-term success. And unless he exceeds expectations and turns this offense around, the Jaguars (1-7) would be remiss not to take a quarterback with one of their two 2021 first-round picks.

Kenyan Drake’s absence in Arizona can only mean one thing; get ready for a Chase Edmonds Dance Party! The third-year back is already enjoying a solid 2020 in his minimal role. Most impressive, he ranks No. 4 among qualified running backs with 222 receiving yards, No. 7 with 26 receptions and No. 9 with a 13.6-percent Target Share. Add in a full workload on the ground against Miami’s average run defense and it adds up to a big day for Mr. Edmonds.

With Myles Gaskin on IR, Matt Breida becomes the back to roster in Miami. Unfortunately for Breida, he is currently dealing with an injury of his own and will miss Week 9. That leaves Jordan Howard and Patrick Laird. YUCK! Avoid, avoid, avoid. Please. And go trade for Breida. Like NOW. Though Gaskin isn’t expected to miss more than a few weeks, the Week 9 Laird/Howard combo will leave the Fins clamoring for Breida’s return.

Ben DiNucci is a developmental QB who’s not worth a roster spot in all but the deepest of Superflex dynasty leagues, and otherwise remains fantasy irrelevant. Against the Eagles, he completed 21-of-40 attempts for 180 yards, no touchdowns and no interceptions while losing two fumbles. Philadelphia sacked DiNucci four times for a loss of 48 yards. His prime-time faceplant earned him the top PPI ranking for Week 8. Woof.

Denzel Mims’ ceiling will remain capped until Adam Gase disappears, but that makes him even more of a screaming buy-low in dynasty leagues based on his prospect profile. The second-round pick from Baylor possesses elite workout metrics and college production to match. Mims offers managers a speculative add in deeper redraft formats, but doesn’t possess enough weekly upside for anything but a desperation Flex play.

Should Mark Ingram, listed as doubtful with an ankle injury, sit out this week, Gus Edwards and rookie J.K. Dobbins will likely share the workload. Though Edwards has been good when given the opportunity, it is Dobbins’ time to shine. The future lead back of the Ravens will get his first chance to be the man in the Baltimore backfield, and will do wonders with it.

Dalvin Cook has had an up and down week, injury-wise, but he will be good to suit up for the Vikings come Sunday. The running back situation in Seattle isn’t quite as clear. Both Chris Carson and Travis Homer are game time decisions, leaving the possibility that rookie DeeJay Dallas will lead the team at the position. At 5-10 and 217-pounds, Dallas doesn’t quite have the speed that one would hope; but he is a productive runner and fits nicely in the Seattle scheme.