NFL

It’s hard to glean too many conclusions given the limited opportunities and a weak Jets offense. However, I’m ready to buy back into Denzel Mims in 2021 redraft leagues and buy low in dynasty leagues. Without Adam Gase as the head coach, it’s stock up for all Jets players, particularly Mims since Gase tends to tank a player’s value. Fantasy managers will likely draft him near his 2020 ADP, so eat that draft value up all day.

Michael Pittman projects as the Colts’ top wide receiver since T.Y. Hilton is an unrestricted free agent. The team also has question marks at the quarterback position with Philip Rivers announcing his retirement. Pittman should earn more opportunities, but temper expectations based on his team being run-heavy and having an uncertain quarterback situation. 

Chris Godwin and/or Antonio Brown leaving the Buccaneers is a guarantee, and it opens a starting spot for a team that averaged 40.5 (No. 10) Team Pass Plays per Game. The next man up would be Scott Miller, who had the year’s quietest 500-yard receiving campaign. Finishing 2020 with averages of 1.90 (No. 34 among qualified wide receivers) Yards Per Route Run and 1.93 (No. 37) Fantasy Points per Target, he’s a great stash candidate entering the 2021 season. 

Not only does Buffalo cutting John Brown make sense financially, it also opens up more opportunity for a younger, better player in Gabriel Davis to contribute more in an offense that averaged 38.9 (No. 13) Team Pass Plays per Game. Chase Claypool is the only rookie wide receiver to score more touchdowns than Gabriel Davis’ seven (No. 19) this season. Not bad for a player overlooked in dynasty rookie drafts because 14 wide receivers were picked before him in the NFL Draft.

We’ve all seen those videos of Jerry Jeudy and his drool-inducing route running. However, he finished his rookie season among the league’s most inefficient receivers. His inconsistent production makes sense when we consider his decent opportunities but lack of efficiency. Sometimes receivers rely on volume, efficiency, or a mix of both. Hopefully for Jeudy, the opportunities or efficiency improves in 2021.

Gabriel Davis’ 2.21 (No. 11 among qualified wide receivers) Fantasy Points per Target average is unreal given the low amount of opportunities. With Stefon Diggs, John Brown and Cole Beasley all around in 2021, it’s hard to project more opportunities. However, if Josh Allen can prove that the efficiency he displayed in 2019 wasn’t a fluke, Davis can provide sneaky fantasy production as a deep Flex wide receiver.

With Matt Ryan due $40 million and Atlanta under new management, expect this team to have a new look at quarterback. Zach Wilson threw for 33 touchdowns with only three interceptions in 2020 and plays with good athleticism, making him the perfect fit for this potentially high-powered offense.

The Giants have a lot of holes to fill, but here they find a major weapon on Day 1 of the draft. Ja’Marr Chase is an extremely explosive player and would be a dynamic weapon for Daniel Jones. Chase averaged 21.2 yards per reception and had 20 touchdowns as a sophomore at LSU. He would step in as the No. 1 in a weak Giants wide receiver room.

The running back position was hit hard this week. Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara and Miles Sanders join James Robinson in sitting out. Alexander Mattison will fill in for Cook, but hasn’t always looked good when doing so. However, this week he’ll face the atrocious Lions run defense. Get him in those DFS lineups!

The Rams need a win to stay in the playoff hunt, and will be down their quarterback in addition to Cooper Kupp. With Jared Goff sidelined, John Wolford will start under center instead of the maligned veteran Blake Bortles. The move is intriguing, as is Wolford’s player profile. As a senior for Wake Forest, the QB ran for 683 yards and 10 touchdowns. He posted a 10.96 (95th-percentile among qualified quarterbacks) Agility Score. Someone say Konami Code?

Along with numerous opportunities, Justin Jefferson also ranks highly in several efficiency metrics. He boasts a +24.8 (No. 8 among qualified wide receivers) Production Premium with 11.2 (No. 4) Yards Per Target and averages 16.0 (No. 9) Yards per Reception. Heading into 2021, he will demolish his past 2020 ADP and likely rank as a high-end WR2 pushing WR1 territory. He made a strong argument as Minnesota’s top wide receiver and the best in this rookie class.

Through 12 games in 2020, Brandon Aiyuk averages 15.4 (No. 17) Fantasy Points per Game on 60 (No. 30) receptions, 748 (No. 35) receiving yards, and seven (No. 17) total touchdowns with a 10.6-percent Touchdown Rate. Seeing the discrepancy in Fantasy Points per Game and receiving production tells us that the high Touchdown Rate boosted his fantasy production. Imagine what his fantasy production would look like if he maintained a similar pace to his most productive six-game stretch over a full season.

Melvin Gordon is a great play this week with Phillip Lindsay out. Gordon has played quietly well this season, ranking No. 14 among qualified running backs with 173 carries, No. 12 with 814 rush yards and No. 10 with nine total touchdowns. He also ranks in the top-13 at the position in Route Participation, Evaded Tackles and Big Runs. Gordon is a great value in DFS this weekend at $5600.

Christian McCaffrey will once again miss time, leaving the handcuff-of-the-year, Mike Davis, to do his thing. However, the Washington defense is stout versus the run. Speaking of the Washington Football Team, it appears likely they will be without Terry McLaurin. Now that everyone is finally coming to terms with Logan Thomas as a bonafide tight end, what better week to have him in a lineup.

Antonio Gibson’s speed, athleticism, and pass-catching ability have all translated to the pro game in his rookie season. He holds a +28.0 (No. 4 among qualified running backs) Production Premium, with a 5.2 (No. 17) Yards Per Touch average, 28.3-percent (No. 8) Juke Rate, and 278 (No. 12) Yards Created. Assuming he earns more opportunities, paired with the efficient production, he should rank as a high-end RB2 next season, especially in PPR leagues.

It’s clear that J.K. Dobbins needs more opportunities, and it looks like the Ravens realize that as well. Unless he earns more opportunities in 2021 or continues to maintain his efficiency, he probably ranks as a back-end RB2 inside the top-24. However, with the limited targets and receiving production, he looks better suited for non-PPR leagues as a touchdown-dependent RB2 that has averaged 78.6 total yards over the past seven games.

In another first for the PPI rankings, Ohio State prospect Trey Sermon received the most page views for Week 15. Sermon’s explosion in the conference title game boosts his draft stock. He’s a player to keep an eye on this offseason, but finds himself in a loaded 2021 RB class that includes Najee Harris and Travis Etienne, among others.

While the Cowboys close the book on a forgettable 2020 season, optimism abounds in the form of Tony Pollard and CeeDee Lamb. The talented young players showed their mettle against the 49ers. Both players enjoy a bright dynasty outlook, although Lamb makes for the tougher acquisition. If Ezekiel Elliott sits again in Week 16, Pollard draws a tough matchup against the Eagles in the fantasy finals. Proceed with caution.

Michael Thomas’ absences aren’t anything new this year. However, to lose him at playoff time when Drew Brees is returning is disheartening. Making matters worse, he appears set for IR, which would take him out for next week’s fantasy championship matches as well. With Marquez Callaway on the reserve himself, fantasy managers should again look to Tre’Quan Smith.

Myles Gaskin appears set to miss another week, which momentarily puts DeAndre Washington once again in the starters seat. Yuck. There is a chance, however, that one of the other Miami backs may return. As for Ronald Jones, he’ll miss Sunday’s game and Leonard Fournette will lead the charge in relief. Rookie Ke’Shawn Vaughn has yet to make a significant impact this season, but this Sunday may be as good a chance as any.