NFL

Game Scripts are clearly important in determining who to start each week in seasonal leagues. But understanding players’ roles in offenses are pivotal in drafts to determine just how dependent score is to fantasy performance. In this article, we identify some players who were affected in extreme fashion by specific Game Scripts.

In the future, we can analyze historical data for this issue. Is a player’s role in an offense sticky from year to year if they stick with the same team? Does that correlate highly with their fantasy efficiency as it did for some players in 2021? Play-by-play data and the resulting fantasy splits, available to us at PlayerProfiler, can help answer these questions to get ahead of teams’ game plans this offseason to avoid the narrative-dependent stat padders and to buy into the sustainable situations.

D.J. Chark didn’t play much in his rookie season. But, he broke out in 2019 to the tune of 73 receptions on 118 targets for 1,008 yards and eight touchdowns in 15 games. After finishing 2019 as the WR16 in fantasy football, he tumbled to a WR50 finish and was the WR42 on a per-game basis. That is not going to get the job done at all.

I personally believe that the 2019 D.J. Chark is closer to the real thing. Though his 2020 season was concerning, the 2019 season is the one we’ve seen him start and finish without a myriad of injuries. If he really is a receiver of the caliber he showed that year, and lands in a situation conducive to fantasy success, he will get back to putting big-time numbers. That scenario is very much in his range of outcomes, making him a buy in dynasty and best-ball leagues before free agency kicks off.

Simply, the Titans have one of the most run-happy offenses in the league, regardless of situation. It’s a bit of a chicken-or-the-egg question to ponder whether that philosophy would persist if Henry was not on the team (though their situational rush rate over expectation was still +8-percent in games he didn’t play last year), but he’s under contract for another three years. The Titans should remain one of the highest volume rushing teams in the NFL in 2022.

Very often, the decline for top-tier running backs comes suddenly and without warning. With that in mind, the performance that Derrick Henry gave us last year should be viewed as a gift. While still providing your fantasy teams with elite raw production, he whispered in the ears of anyone listening that the end is coming. It may come with one last 1,000-yard swan song at 4.1 yards per carry. But it’s better to be out early than late. The reign of King Henry is coming to end.

Using a first-round pick on a running back is not smart business in today’s NFL. But Rashaad Penny’s prospect profile warranted an early selection when he declared for the 2018 NFL Draft. The problem for Penny was that he could not beat out the incumbent Chris Carson. Though he did flash as a rookie with a couple of touchdowns and a 108-yard outing on 12 carries against the Los Angeles Rams, he registered 85 carries to 247 for Carson. The 2019 season was the year Penny showed his worth.

Rashaad Penny was a gifted running back when he entered the NFL, and still is. Injuries have gotten in the way of him shining the way he was supposed to like he did to close the 2021 season. With plenty of teams needing a running back in free agency, he will be a hot commodity. If he stays healthy, he will reward not only any NFL team who signs him but any fantasy gamer who acquires him. He is a buy in dynasty leagues as someone who will not cost a premium but has league-winning RB1 upside.

Turning up at the NFL Scouting Combine and presenting 1st percentile-sized hands is going to make you stand out, but not in the way that Kenny Pickett would have liked.
David Bell had a week he would like to forget and forget quickly. He posted a 4.65 40 time, the second-lowest among all participating wide receivers. Bell then doubled down on the disappointment with a 4.57 short shuttle.
Slade Bolden needed a strong week at the Combine to ensure that he would be known for more than just being the best buddy of Mac Jones of the Patriots. With the Combine in the rearview mirror, Bolden is best known for being the best buddy of Mac Jones.

The process of proving each element of a sexual assault in court is an imperfect, insensitive, invasive, man-made creation to stand in proxy of being able to actually decipher the truth. Its stated purpose is to ensure the liberty of alleged perpetrators is not vitiated barring a degree of evidence that is often impossible to amass.

Tweets like Adam Schefter’s look past this reality. They perpetrate a damaging narrative that survivors of sexual violence are lying unless they are able to meet the legal burden of proof. They minimise the impact of life-altering trauma in favour of the perspective of a plausibly exonerated perpetrator.

After running the ball the third-fewest times in the league in 2020, the Detroit Lions upped their rushing volume a bit last season under new head coach Dan Campbell. Two years ago, they averaged 22.9 attempts per game. In 2021, they ran the ball an average of 25.1 times per contest. That average ranked No. 21 in the NFL, and was a carry-and-a-half lower than the league-wide 26.6 average. In their ideal world, Detroit would probably run the ball more than they actually have.

I don’t want to overreact to one season of poor play. But at this point in D’Andre Swift’s NFL career, the 2021 season represents 50-percent of his games played and almost 60-percent of his total carries. I loved Swift the prospect as much as anyone.But let’s exercise some caution. Don’t crown him just yet.

New England is simply a run-heavy team, and they have been since Tom Brady left following the 2019 season. While the development of Mac Jones and the departure of long-time offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels might mean a slight change in gameplan, the Bill Belichick establishment is still holding strong. And it’s probably reasonable to anticipate the Patriots rushing at least slightly more often than league average in 2022.

If I’m on the clock in the middle rounds of a dynasty startup, I’m probably letting somebody else pull the first trigger on a Patriot running back before I scoop up the other guy. If I’m holding Damien Harris on an existing roster, I’m looking to pivot to Rhamondre Stevenson through trade while adding some sort of rookie pick or lottery ticket taxi stash. The difference is small, but I think Stevenson is the better long-term bet.

It’s not uncommon for a high draft pick, especially a first-rounder, to get a second chance despite early career struggles. For many, especially quarterbacks, all they need is that change of scenery to get their career back on track. If there’s a guy that’s going to follow in the footsteps of Ryan Tannehill and Jameis Winston and thrive in new digs, the best candidate to do so among 2022’s crop of free agents is Mitchell Trubisky.

Mitchell Trubisky has a top-12 points per game finish to his name. However, his three other seasons were all outside the top 25. Yes, it is more than fair to be skeptical. But that brings us back to the entire purpose of this article: finding treasure out of someone else’s trash. We’ve seen his ceiling as a top-12 option, it costs almost nothing to see if he can get there again. Which, he could in the right situation.

PlayerProfiler/RotoUnderworld Head Game Analyst and NFL Draft Analyst Cody Carpentier is back for more; now breaking down his NFL Mock Draft 4.0 in a short team-by-team series. Next up is the Houston Texans. If you want to see your favorite team, go to Twitter @CarpentierNFL and leave Cody a comment on what team you want to see broken down next.

The Houston Texans need a lot of help on defense, and what better way to cure it than taking the Biggest defender in the draft at pick 13 with Jordan Davis, and running it back in Round 4 with back-to-back speed edge rushers. Bonitto and Amare Barno are both a tad on the small side, but what they lack in size they make up for in Speed and Elusiveness. Barno finished two seasons at Virginia Tech with 21.5 tackles for loss and 10 sacks. While Bonitto gathered 26.5 tackles for loss and 16 sacks over that same stretch.