NFL

For any and all of you who aren’t Best Ball purists yet, the hardest decisions in fantasy football are made week to week. At quarterback specifically, if you don’t have a Patrick Mahomes or Russell Wilson-type player that you lock and load each week, often you are making weekly decisions between two uninspiring quarterback options. These are tough and often impactful choices that determine the final outcome of the week.

Projections try to capture the expected value in a player’s performance, rather than try to predict the inherently unpredictable outlier games that players put up. When do quarterbacks put up big numbers? When are they more likely to have outlier performances? Quarterbacks perform best when the opposing quarterback is having a big fantasy day.

We don’t give Antonio Brown enough credit for walking into Tampa Bay midseason and immediately making an impact. Brown finished with an 11.8 (No. 26) Half-PPR Fantasy Points per Game average through Week 17. He displayed a low floor, but in eight games, he provided more to best ball rosters than T.Y. Hilton, Jerry Jeudy, and others did over the whole season. Considering he now has an entire offseason to become more acclimated to the offense, there is a huge buy-low opportunity present.

Lamar Jackson’s rushing ability gives him an elite floor that is desirable in standard formats, but his lack of ceiling held Jackson to 55.2 (No. 10) Best Ball Points Added. The Ravens face the league’s best Game Script and play and the league’s slowest pace. Jackson isn’t required to rack up the production that other quarterbacks like Justin Herbert and Dak Prescott, even with his rushing volume. If the team’s pace doesn’t increase, Jackson paying off his QB4 price could be a mirage for believers.

Total QBR is not a relevant stat in predicting a quarterback’s fantasy football success. For example, in 2020, Drew Brees’ 74.5 Total QBR ranked No. 6 among qualified quarterbacks, but he finished the season averaging 18.0 (No. 15) Fantasy Points Per Game. This metric is more relevant in dynasty football leagues. Quarterbacks with low ratings in their Total QBR metric are likely replaced sooner rather than later.

Carson Wentz had a 33:7 touchdown-interception ratio back in 2017 and was an MVP candidate before tearing his ACL. With Frank Reich as his offensive coordinator, Wentz had a 75.8 (No. 3) Total QBR in 2017. Reich would leave for the Colts’ head coaching job and Wentz would struggle in his absence. If there’s one quarterback in the group who can turn around his Total QBR like Aaron Rodgers did last season, it’s Wentz.

The Browns are for real and have been since acquiring a real coach with Kevin Stefanski. This roster is iron-clad after improvements to the defense this offseason. If this team remains healthy, a Super Bowl is in the range of outcomes. The only risk is that Baker Mayfield’s play may fall off if the team around him starts to crumble. They enter the year as favorites to win the NFC North.

The Jaguars are kings of the bad teams. A fitting title for a routinely dysfunctional group. Trevor Lawrence is a can’t miss QB prospect and deserves to be treated as such. He alone can elevate this team to the 5-7 win mark. Temper expectations in a year following massive turnover at every organizational level and just enjoy the ride.

For the last 20 years, when considering the “money” performers at the quarterback position, the first name to mind has been Tom Brady. It should therefore surprise no one that Brady led all quarterbacks with 46 Money Throws in 2020. They accounted for 8-percent of his pass attempts for the season (610). Brady completed almost three times as many Money Throws as he threw Interceptable Passes (19).

At the other end of the scale, having a quarterback who can’t deliver the money plays can seriously impact a team’s hopes of success in a given year. Of the 30 quarterbacks with at least 300 pass attempts, Nick Mullens of the 49ers had the lowest number of Money Throws. He managed just four (No. 40 among qualified quarterbacks) from his 326 (No. 29) attempts (one-percent).

The number of RB1s have contracted over time, culminating in a brutally small RB1 tier in 2020 with only three RB1s, Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, and Derrick Henry. The RB1 tier is getting narrower and further away from the rest of the pack. The league-winning RBs are hitting harder now than in years past, but they are more scarce than ever before.

The difference between WR3s and WR2s is relatively smaller than the difference between RB2s and RB3s, furthering the hypothesis that the top-36 wide receivers are a tighter and deeper group than their counterparts in the RB position. Both running backs and wide receivers have small groups of elite top-end talent that only a portion of a fantasy football league will be able to snag. There are fewer RB1s and WR1s than there are spots in a 12 team fantasy league.

Game Script does not show the skill of a certain player, but the opportunity they receive. For example, the Steelers ranked No. 8 in the 2020 season. This can be credited to their defense, but it goes to show the type of workload Najee Harris will receive in 2021. However, the Colts ranked No. 9 in Game Script and No. 20 in passing attempts last year. This doesn’t bode well for Michael Pittman, Parris Campbell, and crew to get much opportunity this season.

A player/team whose Game Script and passing attack favors him for the 2021 season would be CeeDee Lamb and crew. The Cowboys ranked No. 27 in Game Script and No. 1 in Pace of Play last year. This is a recipe for fantasy point-scoring, and fantasy gamers everywhere should be picking up pieces of this Cowboys offense throughout the offseason.

In 2020, Emmanuel Sanders led the NFL with a 110.9-percent True Catch Rate, and that’s not a typo. What does this tell the RotoUnderworld audience? Despite a 67.1-percent (No. 97 among qualified wide receivers) Catchable Target Rate and 6.04 (No. 108) Target Accuracy, Sanders was able to utilize his 10.29 (92nd-percentile) Catch Radius to haul in a majority of his targets, even those deemed uncatchable. He caught 61 passes even though only 55 targets were deemed catchable.

Last season, Denzel Mims finished the season with a 51.1-percent (No. 103) Catch Rate. Box score hunters see this stat and assume “This guy can’t play and is a bust.” Mims’ 88.5-percent (No. 29) True Catch Rate and 14.1 (No. 12) Average Target Distance add context to his situation. A quarterback upgrade in 2021 would lead to an increase in Mims’ 57.8-percent (No. 107) Catchable Target Rate in 2020, and thus increase his Catch Rate that box score hunters overvalue.

The Cowboys offensive line took a step back last season after fielding what was arguably the league’s top line in 2019. Not much has changed for a good-looking group entering 2021, though the center position is still a hole that needs to be filled following Travis Frederick’s retirement. Like the Philadelphia Eagles, the Cowboys are banking on health in 2021 as Zack Martin, La’el Collins, and Tyron Smith return to play alongside Connor Williams. 

The Packers return four of five offensive line starters and could still re-sign Ricky Wagner, which would return 86-percent of their snaps from last season. However they did lose all-pro center Corey Linsley, who has graded as PFF’s No. 6, No. 7, and No. 1 center over the last three seasons, in free agency. While losing Linsley will hurt, there is still enough talent along this offensive line to remain a top unit in 2021.

The Miami Dolphins fielded a below average offensive line in 2020. They ranked No. 21 in PFF pass blocking and No. 30 in run blocking, while also ranking No. 24 in Adjusted Line Yards and No. 20 in Adjusted Sack Rate. This line seems to range between slightly below average to slightly above average unless both Austin Jackson and Robert Hunt take major leaps forward in their sophomore seasons.

Completing their offensive line rebuild, the Chargers saw Northwestern’s tackle Rashawn Slater fall to them at No. 13, where he was considered a top 10 pick and in a similar tier with No. 7 overall pick Penei Sewell. Provided enough health, no team in 2021 should see a larger turnaround in offensive line play from 2020.