NFL

Tre’Quan Smith is set up for a big year due to Michael Thomas’ injury situation. Though Marquez Callaway is the clear No. 1 and the beneficiary of Thomas’ absence, Smith was poised to handle the field opposite him. Now, moved to IR with a bad hammy, he’ll have to wait at least three weeks before returning to the field. Meanwhile, the wide receivers behind him are Deonte Harris and Lil’Jordan Humphrey. No one should be excited about these players.

Out of the three new Ravens RBs, Latavius Murray would seem to have the most “gas left in the tank” and fits Gus Edwards’ role perfectly. Expect Murray and Ty’Son Williams to share the workload for at least Week 1, but let’s be real about this, folks. This all likely means that Lamar Jackson will just run it himself more than he ever has, and perhaps, lean more on that passing game like they intended. Either way, it’s hard not to see these running back injuries as a potential bump for the former MVP.

While some (including this particular writer) have never sworn by Sony Michel, one simply can’t ignore the former Patriot’s efficiency last year. He ranked No. 1 among qualified running backs in Yards Per Touch (6.5) and No. 2 in True YPC (5.2); impressive, considering the team faced an average of 7.3 (No. 6) Defenders In Box. In New England, Michel was one of too many cooks in the kitchen; in Los Angeles, however, he forms a nice duo with Henderson on what should be a high-octane offense.

There’s drama in the Bayou, and Michael Thomas is at the forefront. The star wideout’s decision to opt for ankle surgery in June didn’t sit well with the Saints and Coach Sean Payton. Thomas was paced on the PUP list, and won’t be eligible to return until after Week 6; at which point Marquez Callaway may have a firm grip on the No. 1 chair.

If you’ve drafted a rookie QB, he’s either starting already or will be very soon. If you’ve got Justin Fields or Trey Lance, be sure you’ve grabbed a low-priced starter with a good early schedule to get you through the first few weeks. Guys like Teddy Bridgewater in Denver or even Sam Darnold in Carolina have easy enough opening schedules to get you through the first few weeks. Then expect your rookie QB to pay off soon, and for most of the season.

When other teams drafting before them (that also needed line help) reached on skill position players, it gifted the Lions with opportunity to select OT Penei Sewell at pick No. 7 overall, adding him to a line that is now top-half in the NFL. Yes, the Lions hired a caveman head coach in Dan Campbell. But they’ve embraced the rebuild. Their time will come. It might be early to move, but be prepared to pounce.

Josh Allen joins Patrick Mahomes and Dak Prescott as QBs making over $40 million per year. Once QBs sign their big post-rookie contracts, the clock starts to tick for their teams. How long will Buffalo’s window for competing remain open? Can they win a Super Bowl before Allen’s cap hit skyrockets? Is his extension a team-friendly contract? How does this affect Lamar Jackson’s extension talks?

The Bills were a top AFC team last season and have improved in three consecutive years. I don’t see that changing in the next three. If it does change, it won’t be because Allen’s contract crippled the team’s salary cap. On the contrary, his extension allows Buffalo to extend their Super Bowl window all the way out to 2024 and keep or add key pieces.

Aaron Rodgers is gone after this season. The parallels between the Packers and the Michael Jordan Netflix documentary are obvious and referenced by involved parties. Allow your Salary Cap-tain to navigate you through the waves of contract and salary cap complexities. The first notable detail about Aaron Rodgers’ new contract is the 2023 void year. The next detail to note is Rodgers’ 2022 cap hit. Where is Rodgers going to play in 2022? How does the Rodgers saga affect Adams? Where do Cobb and the rookie WR fit in the 2021 plans?

By weighting Catchable Target Rate by Average Target Distance, we see different WRs who are in similar per-target situations for scoring fantasy points. Cooper Kupp has a remarkably high 83.2-percent (No. 17 among qualified wide receivers) Catchable Target Rate. Those targets came with a 6.6 (No. 103) Average Target Distance. He is likely to convert his targets into receptions. From a fantasy perspective, each individual reception is not generating significant fantasy point-scoring opportunity.

Conversely, Mike Williams has a low 65.9-percent (No. 100) Catchable Target Rate on a 14.8 (No. 9) Average Target Distance. He’s not nearly as likely to catch every target he receives, but when he does, they are likely to generate more fantasy points due to being deeper down the field. Those deeper receptions rack up more yards and more touchdowns. He and Kupp play differently, but their per-target opportunity is the same through the lens of Target Quality Rating.

In fantasy terms, we should be targeting players that command a large share of their teams’ targets. But be warned, not all Target Shares are created equal. It is important that we look at a team’s total pass volume to provide greater context when it comes to appreciating how much work a pass-catcher will get.

Target Rate is another stat that can sound impressive in of itself. But when used in concert with other stats and metrics, it can be used to push up players that really don’t need to be in our thoughts when it comes to fantasy football. It’s a nice conversation starter if you want to talk to your mates about how much more work Braxton Berrios should have got in 2020. But those conversations are, I hope, rare.

There are quite a few forces pushing quarterbacks towards their lower-variance profiles. Primarily, quarterbacks have an incredibly stable workload from week-to-week. They’re almost never game-scripted out the way RBs can be in losing situations, or WRs can in difficult CB matchups. Instead, much of quarterback variance stems from touchdowns and rushing yardage, which are both more impactful than passing yards.

If I’m in the final few rounds of a best ball draft looking at wide receivers with projections of six-to-eight points per game over the course of the season, I’m taking speed guys on high-volume aerial attacks who just need the right cornerback matchup to get one deep lineup-making touchdown. High-variance players hit their ceiling once or twice a season. And playing a below average player for the chance at upside is almost never the correct move in traditional formats.

Antonio Gibson had a 60.0-percent (No. 6 among qualified running backs) Light Front Carry Rate and no other major back to challenge him for carries. There’s a reason he has gained traction in RB rankings in the fantasy community. Gibson averaged 5.5 Light Front Yards Per Carry with 17 carries inside the 10-yard line and a 4.7-percent (No. 23) Breakaway Run Rate. Efficient against a high rate of Light Fronts, expect him to continue seeing them for as long as he remains a receiving threat.

It’s no secret that J.K. Dobbins was one of the league’s most efficient backs in 2020. The Ravens offense seeing lots of Base Fronts helped; Dobbins didn’t see extra defenders in the box due to how they line up. His rookie status and not becoming a lead back until the second half of the season also helped him to see more of this “common” look against him. The Baltimore offense seeing a large rate of Base Fronts, plus Dobbins’ efficiency against them, bodes well for him in 2021.

Notable players sitting atop the Adjusted Yards Per Attempt leaderboard include Ryan Tannehill, Kirk Cousins, and Derek Carr. Although Tannehill regressed a tiny bit in 2020, he averaged 8.3 (No. 4 among qualified quarterbacks) Adjusted Yards Per Attempt, down from 9.2 (No. 1) AY/A in 2019.

In 2021, Drew Lock averaged 5.6 (No. 30) Adjusted Yards Per Attempt and looked inconsistent. In four games where he finished inside the top-12, he averaged 24.7 Fantasy Points Per Game, primarily boosted by 11 of his 16 (No. 20) passing touchdowns on the season. During games where he finished outside of the top-12, he averaged 10.6 fantasy points.