NFL

Christian Kirk was supremely active in the red zone last year for the Cardinals but only came away with one red zone touchdown. Based on his Red Zone Target Share and Red Zone Receptions, that number should have been over five. With any luck, Kirk’s potential decrease in volume due to the addition of DeAndre Hopkins can be more than offset by positive reversion in efficiency. Go get him before it’s too late.

Given Courtland Sutton’s opportunity last year, he should have scored over five red zone touchdowns. Instead, he only scored three. Chase the opportunity. His 28.2-percent Red Zone Target Share was tied for No. 6 among wide receivers with ten or more games played. However, among those players, Sutton’s three touchdowns ranked last. Denver invested heavily in the offense this offseason, but players such as Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler are not immediate red zone target magnets.

The New York Jets have made an effort to build up the offense around quarterback Sam Darnold in 2020. Though Robby Anderson departed for Carolina, the Jets responded by adding Breshad Perriman in free agency and Denzel Mims in the draft. Perriman is a more than capable replacement for Anderson. As for Mims, the Baylor product should become an instant favorite of Darnold’s, and a true target hog. 

Will Fuller is the true, lone incumbent of this Houston reveling crew, and has established rapport with Deshaun Watson. His health is a constant question mark, but there is no question what he is capable of when healthy. In 2019, the wideout carried an astounding 84.5-percent (No. 28 among qualified wide receivers) True Catch Rate through his 11 games played. If there is to be a sole beneficiary of the available targets, Fuller is the best bet.

Draft capital is extremely important for wide receivers. After that, age-adjusted college production isn’t just the most important metric, it’s the only one that matters. Aside from maybe Speed Score, athleticism doesn’t matter for wide receivers. College market share numbers look more predictive of a breakout season than college efficiency, although our ideal prospect will have both.

Our highest profile bust candidate is easily Henry Ruggs, whose strong draft capital does not do enough to mask the spotty college production profile. Of our 55 breakout wide receivers with at least one season of 15 Fantasy Points per Game or more, only college quarterback Julian Edelman and college wide receiver/running back Wes Welker posted a lower College Dominator Rating than Ruggs’ 17.5-percent (17th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) mark.

Draft capital is extremely important for running backs. After that, College Dominator Rating and Breakout Age are the most important metrics. Speed Score is the most important and predictive Combine metric that we have for the position. There are also thresholds for College YPC (6.0) and College Target Share (10.0-percent) we should want our running backs to meet when looking for breakout candidates.

Those looking for a sleeper running back should look no further than Antonio Gibson. He was incredibly explosive when he received touches, posting an 11.2 (99th-percentile among qualified running backs) College YPC mark with a 12.7-percent (88th-percentile) College Target Share. He certainly fits the mold of a breakout running back candidate being in an ambiguous backfield and possessing pass-catching chops.

Quarterback is the position where college efficiency metrics matter the most. Hand size, weight, and BMI are poor predictors of future fantasy success. Height and Wonderlic Score can be ignored when evaluating quarterback prospects. Athleticism matters when trying to evaluate a quarterback’s rushing potential. Other than College QBR and draft pick, there are not a ton of easy ways to identify values in rookie quarterbacks, at least from a fantasy perspective.

Jalen Hurts was a second-round pick, so the draft capital is not on his side, but he has tremendous upside if Carson Wentz misses time and he gets a chance to start. His collegiate resume features an 11.3 (98th-percentile among qualified quarterbacks) College YPA, an 89.7 (95th-percentile) College QBR, and fantastic athleticism indicated by a 125-inch Broad Jump and 4.59 (95th-percentile) 40-Yard Dash.

Joe Mixon is among the most talented running backs in the NFL. He finished No. 1 among qualified running backs with 103 Evaded Tackles. He also finished with a 32.9-percent (No. 4) Juke Rate, and 576 (No. 2) Yards Created. Entering his contract year with the additions of Joe Burrow and last year’s injured first round pick Jonah Williams, Mixon is primed for a top ten fantasy finish.

The Chargers selected Justin Herbert with the No. 6 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, but he’s initially expected to ride the bench in the early going. In Tyrod Taylor’s three seasons starting for the Bills, he averaged a 94-525-5 line as a rusher. He also finished as a top 10 fantasy QB in 2016 with Lynn as his offensive coordinator, so there’s familiarity there. If Taylor were to start the entire season, he would be hard-pressed to hit 500 pass attempts as part of a slow, conservative group. 

The 2017 RB class has an average College Dominator rating of 32-percent, three percent higher than the 2020 class average. In the first three rounds of the draft, 2017 RBs average out at 34.5-percent. This eclipses the 31-percent mark of the 2020 class. Of the RBs drafted in 2017, 38.5-percent (10 out of 26) had a Dominator greater than 35-percent. The 2020 RB class has five players (29.4-percent) above this mark: Jonathan Taylor, Cam Akers, Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Zack Moss, and Eno Benjamin.

The 2020 class as a group has an average Speed Score of 103.9 overall and 108.3 for players drafted in the first three rounds. Seven out of the 10 rookies drafted by Day 3 of 2020 have Speed Scores over 100, with Ke’Shawn Vaughn’s 103.5 (74th-percentile among qualified running backs) being the floor. Only three RBs had Speed Scores higher than Vaughn’s for the first three rounds of the 2017 draft: Leonard Fournette, Joe Mixon, and D’Onta Foreman.

Athleticism matters a great deal for predicting fantasy success at the tight end position. Height-Adjusted Speed Score is the most important athleticism metric, followed by the agility drills (3-cone and 20-yard shuttle) that comprise the Agility Score and explosion exercises (broad/vertical jump) that comprise the Burst Score. Metrics such as Catch Radius, Athleticism Score, and SPARQ-x also do a good job of summarizing a player’s overall athleticism and predicting a tight end’s chances of NFL success.

Albert Okwuegbunam is intriguing. We don’t have his Catch Radius, and his 11.8 Yards per Reception fell just below the threshold we look for, but his 129.6 (99th-percentile among qualified tight ends) Speed Score and 31.2-percent (90th-percentile) College Dominator Rating indicate that he is poised to be a fantasy stud.

An early Breakout Age increases the chance that a wide receiver will have a successful NFL career. Of the wide receivers selected in 2014, 14 of them (41-percent) had a Breakout Age of 20 or younger. The 2020 class holds an edge with 18 prospects drafted (or 51-percent) meeting the same breakout threshold. Another notable trend for the 2020 class is that half of the players with early Breakout Ages were selected in Round 4 or later. In 2014, only two wide receivers selected on Day 3 of the draft had an early breakout.

Speed Score places a premium on 40-time, but also factors in body weight and length. The 2020 class has 17 players (49-percent) with a Speed Score of 100 or higher. A handful of rookies did not run the 40-yard dash at the 2020 Combine, so it is possible that this class more 100-plus Speed Score WRs. Even so, this represents the highest number of receivers with a Speed Score of 100-plus drafted in a class in over 10 years. In comparison, 14 players (41-percent) met this threshold for the 2014 group.