Fantasy Football

Sometimes we need law and order to be restored. Workhorse backs with size, speed, athleticism and pass-catching ability are to be unleashed as league-winners. Undersized, slow satellite backs are to be left on the benches of fantasy and NFL teams respectively. Michael Carter had moments last year, but those drafting a day three change-of-pace back as their RB2 were whistling past the graveyard.

Rashaad Penny was an efficiency monster in 2021, and is first-hand evidence of Seattle’s ambivalent approach to draft capital. I expect Kenneth Walker to take over lead back duties as the modal outcome, but a messy committee or even Penny remaining lead back is within his range of outcomes. The question marks in Walker’s profile, along with the rest of the class and their limited draft capital, make me cautious of all running backs beyond Breece Hall.

You’ll likely find yourself on the clock in the third, fourth, and sometimes fifth round of your rookie draft with very few attractive options. Whether it’s bad draft capital, poor athleticism, or uninspiring production, the players here have more red flags than Ron Swanson’s ex-wives. But that doesn’t make the selection pointless. On the contrary, navigating these later rounds (the RB rounds) properly can give you a significant edge over your leaguemates.

Forget trying to find the next Darnell Mooney needle in a haystack of future supermarket employees. Instead, once Round 3 rolls around, just toggle off the other positions and queue up any RB capable of latching onto an NFL depth chart. Remember, your odds of finding the next WR1 or RB1 at the 3.09, 4.05, or 5.11 are exceptionally low, and that’s okay. If you can squeeze three or four games of RB2 production out of a pick that late, you’re doing just fine.

The Davante Adams trade rightfully triggered a tsunami of fantasy takes and analysis. Much discussion was centered around Derek Carr and his inability to support Adams at the production-clip we’ve become accustomed to. There was little focus on the fact that Lazard is the heir to the Adams role in the Green Bay offense. You may ask, “What makes you so sure Lazard will be Green Bay’s No. 1 receiving option in 2022?” The addition of Sammy Watkins and lingering likelihood of another WR add via the draft make this a valid question. The simple answer: history, plus the fact that he fits the GB WR1 prototype.

The pre-requisites to become Aaron Rodgers’ top target are straightforward: alpha size, plus-athleticism, and proven NFL-level dependability. Barring a big-time trade for a veteran, the only player that will meet these criteria on the Packers roster in 2022 will be Allen Lazard. The glaring dissimilarity between Jordy Nelson/Davante Adams and Lazard is draft capital. Both were selected in the second round while Lazard went undrafted. Lazard’s closest comp., Marques Colston, proves it’s possible to overcome low draft capital with a similar profile and skillset.

If you couldn’t get enough of the PlayerProfiler vs. RosterWatch rivalry, we’re back with the second installment in the Summer of Collaboration series of fantasy football mock drafts with RosterWatch. Did the Underworld successfully defend the mock drafting crown? Did anyone plant any outrageous flags? Who actually wins in a mock draft of any sort? If there is a way to win, you can bet that the six mock drafters on the Underworld side of the ledger will ride PlayerProfiler’s advanced stats, metrics, and analytics all the way to a successful defense of the mock drafting heavyweight championship of the world.

The running back “dead zone” is dead. Dead zone running backs have traditionally been those backs drafted in rounds three through six of fantasy drafts the past two seasons. But a shift is about to take place. The RB Dead Zone will be the fertile ground out of which multiple RB1s will be harvested in fantasy leagues in 2022. Start adjusting your draft plans now.

If you are really concerned about missing out on a first-round running back, keep in mind Leonard Fournette, Tony Pollard and A.J. Dillon will also still be available after round 6 (past the dead zone). There are plenty of upside RB’s available in rounds 3-8 in 2022, leaving you tons of flexibility to not take running backs in rounds 1-2. The RB dead zone is the place to be in 2022! IT’S ALIIIIIIVE!!!

While Denver’s WRs rightfully deserve upgrades in all formats, discourse over the increased value of Albert Okwuegbunam came into question. Comments in the Twitterverse claimed that, historically, Russell Wilson hasn’t utilized his tight ends. The intent of this first edition of Fantasy Football Mythbusters is to debunk this theory. We’ll do this by deriving an outcome deemed as possible, likely, or unlikely based on historical usage. 

Throughout his career, Russell Wilson has had an aging Jimmy Graham, a misused Zach Miller, and mediocre talent at the tight end position. Regardless of their skillset, if the tight end is running routes, then Wilson will be sure to give them an opportunity to make a play. Combine this with Albert Okwuegbunam’s ability to gain yards after the catch, and comments from head coach Nathaniel Hackett about using him in a hybrid role to take advantage of his receiving skills, and he is a TE1 lock on a per-game basis.  

Welcome to the latest and greatest arena where fantasy football takes thrive or die. A place where fantasy football propositions can gain validity or be thrown by the wayside. This is the second installment of the Fantasy Football Shark Tank.

Allen Robinson, Russell Gage, and Chase Edmonds should all be targeted in 2022. Given their talents and their new situations it will. Despite not being their new teams’ primary pass catchers, Gage and Robinson will get fantastic quarterback upgrades. And Edmonds is looking like he will get the first crack at being the Dolphins number one running back. It’s good process rostering any of these three players in the 2022 season. 

Dalton Schultz had a breakout season last year, where he finished as the No. 3 overall tight end. In PPR, he averaged 12.3 (No. 5 among qualified tight ends) Fantasy Points Per Game. That inspires confidence as two of Dallas’s receiving weapons left the team this offseason. The logical conclusion is that Gallup and Schultz will be the 2a and 2b receiving option in this offense next season with both getting an uptick in Target Share.

Former 49ers offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel is heading to Miami along with speedster Tyreek Hill. McDaniel spent one year as offensive coordinator, and in that year, created a breakout season for Deebo Samuel without hurting the production of George Kittle. The Dolphins wide receiver corps Hill and Jaylen Waddle is the fastest one-two punch in the league. Mike Gesicki, scoring in the 95th-percentile or higher in all workout metrics, is no slowpoke either.

From 2020 to 2021 Ezekiel Elliot has seen a decline in Opportunity Share, Yards Created, and Dominator Rating. Zeke’s Opportunity Share fell more than 14-percentage points and for the first time in his entire career he finished outside the top 25 in Dominator Rating. The tailback is becoming less and less of a factor in the passing game. He may have been the RB7 overall but he was RB15 on a points per game basis. Get out now before the bottom completely falls off.

Not only has Miles Sanders witnessed a downtick in opportunities, he was also less effective when he had the ball in his hands. He has fallen outside the top 30 running backs in PlayerProfiler’s Dynasty Rankings. This may be the last chance to move on from the Philly tailback. Will team builders get 100-percent return? Absolutely not, but in short order, his value may drop to zero. So get out now!

Although many people love trade negotiations, others get intimidated and are risk-averse; fearing that their return may be perceived as the “loser” in the deal (which in dynasty is not a simple evaluation given that situations change every year, injuries happen, and values fluctuate). Thanks to smart people and technology, there are now numerous sites that host their own versions of trade calculators based on each site’s dynasty rankings.

Trading away young players that are perceived to be more valuable than what their profiles dictate, in exchange for depreciating assets with proven production, allows for more creativity in formulating trades with the additional assets acquired, or to rebuild a roster by acquiring future draft picks on top of proven talent that are past the age-apex curve.