Fantasy Football

The Lions added Jameson Williams in the draft and D.J. Chark in free agency. Two excellent options to pair with Amon-Ra St. Brown, T.J. Hockenson, and D’Andre Swift. Look for Jared Goff to utilize his weapons in year 2 with the Dan Campbell Lions. And for some added entertainment this offseason, watch Hard Knocks which will follow the Lions this year.

Russell Wilson has only missed three games in his career, all in 2021 due to the tendon rupture. Providing that heals, he should have no setbacks in 2022. He is even more valuable in fantasy due to his ability to scramble for extra yards. He has averaged over 20.0 Fantasy Points Per Game in five different seasons, look for him to do it again next season. It’s possible the Matthew Stafford/Tom Brady trend continues with Wilson just as much as it does Matt Ryan.

I saw Mark Andrews as an efficient target hog who operates down the field with a top-five fantasy finish already on his resume. Looking back, I regret not pounding the table for him more. However, we can’t simply ignore the effects of preseason injuries to J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards that certainly influenced Baltimore to air out the football more often.

Rondale Moore was barely old enough to vote and produced 1,471 yards of offense. I’m far from a film grinder, but his freshman tape is beyond impressive. I learned not to buy into purely the landing spot and especially not to obsess over coach-centric analysis. I already knew better than that, but I fell into the trap anyway. No matter what I believed about Moore, his 9.4 (1st-percentile among qualified wide receivers) College Yards Per Reception should’ve been a red flag.

No less than three league-winning wide receivers emerged from ambiguous situations in 2021. You won’t have trouble naming them. Cooper Kupp, Ja’Marr Chase and Deebo Samuel all recorded top-5 fantasy seasons in 2021 and ascended to wide receiver royalty. They all came from truly ambiguous WR situations: 2021 was just one season. But over the last six, trends have developed which have implications for fantasy WRs in the future. More top-scoring players will emerge from ambiguous WR situations in 2022 and beyond.

The rookie hype is real in fantasy, but the hype is well-founded. The NFL is enamored with rookie wide receivers, too. There were 17 wide receivers taken in the first three rounds of the 2022 NFL draft, tied with 1994 and 2007 for most rookie WRs drafted in the first three rounds ever. Fantasy drafting is all about finding edges. Many fantasy managers move away from ambiguity because they equate it with uncertainty. Actually drafting wide receivers from ambiguous situations is a surer thing than seemingly more certain situations.  Move toward ambiguity when drafting receivers!

The Indianapolis Colts were on the run-heaviest teams in the NFL last season. Their 499 carries were good for No. 5 in the league and 47 more than league average. A presumed quarterback upgrade from the departed Carson Wentz to the newly acquired Matt Ryan could mean more passing volume in the year ahead, but the strength of this Colts team is their dominant running game. We shouldn’t expect that to go away in 2022.

Continue drafting Jonathan Taylor as an elite RB1 and don’t stress over identifying his handcuff. That role probably doesn’t exist behind him in the same way that it does behind other workhorses like Dalvin Cook and David Montgomery. There just isn’t a player in this backfield with the clear talent to step in and command a three-down role. If you simply must, there are worse at-cost investments than taking a late shot on D’Vonte Price.

The Giants have brought in former Bills Offensive Coordinator Brian Daboll to replace Joe Judge. Expectations are that the offense will improve under the new head coach, and that Daniel Jones will finally tap into his potential. If that happens, Kenny Golladay should definitely improve and at least average double-digit Fantasy Points Per Game like he has three times before in his career. This is a guy who scored 11 TDs in 2019, and it would be a surprise if he doesn’t at least get one in 2022.

Allen Robinson has had Blake Bortles, Chad Henne, Mitchell Trubisky, and Justin Fields as his quarterbacks and still, he’s had two top 10 seasons under his belt. Robinson has had four years with over 150 targets, an amount possible, but unlikely to get next year. Matthew Stafford threw the ball 601 times, and I don’t see why he’d throw the ball less next season. In fact, Stafford’s production could very well go up in Year 2 with the Rams as he is now fully adjusted to the system. Assuming he stays healthy and Beckham doesn’t return to LA, 2022 should be a great bounceback season for Robinson.

Drake London is a large target with 95th-percentile arm length, benefitting him for contested targets. He also boasts an 18.1 (99th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) Breakout Age and 34.9 (69th-percentile) College Dominator Rating, a similar mix of Breakout Age and College Dominator Rating to Donte Moncrief, Sammy Watkins, and DeAndre Hopkins. Atlanta’s QB situation will be the primary thing to hold him back.

The Titans swapped out A.J. Brown for Treylon Burks during the draft, adding the Arkansas product to a team expected to contend. The Titans are looking for a new physical WR1, and with Robert Woods getting older, Burks is next up. With Derrick Henry in the backfield, Burks may not see as much pass volume as guys like Drake London or Jameson Williams. Still, he has a physical profile and clear path to being the WR1 on his own team, giving him a strong case to be the rookie WR1.

We only have one season’s worth of decision making from which to draw conclusions about the way that Staley and offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi want to run this team. But with Justin Herbert at quarterback, it seems reasonable that they would continue to be a pass-heavy team going forward. This is a team with both the propensity and the personnel to air it out.

Austin Ekeler has not needed an incredible share of opportunity in this backfield to be an effective fantasy contributor. We should expect him to be productive once again in 2022. Outside of Isaiah Spiller, nobody else on this team should have much fantasy value. He’s just inside my top-10 rookie running backs. Mostly on the strength of the quality offensive situation he landed in. Leddie Brown is vaguely interesting as a very deep dart throw.

Are we sure the shiny new rookies Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave will outscore Russell Gage? Sure, fans of PlayerProfiler know we love to lean into the uncertainty and chase ceiling outcomes. But there is no Ja’Marr Chase or Justin Jefferson in this 2022 receiver class. Let’s embrace certainty here and take the guy catching passes from the GOAT.

It’s prudent to dive into the numbers and key metrics to project a player’s prospects in fantasy. But if you want to keep it simple, Russell Gage is locked into no worse than the No. 3 spot in Tom Brady’s pecking order. This isn’t just “another Brady receiver” with far too much preseason hype that we’ve all been burned by. Gage is being drafted at his floor, and early on in the year, WR1 spike weeks aren’t out of reach. His ADP may correct itself down the line. For now, let your fellow drafters take Chase Claypool, Christian Watson, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Push the button and cash in on Gage.

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However you evaluate prospects, keep in mind their current and potential market values, draft archetypes of player who can maximize fantasy ceilings, and always make market-efficient choices.