Draft Strategy

Jerick McKinnon was always a superior athlete. He entered the league with a 4.41 (96th-percentile among qualified running backs) 40-Yard Dash time, 134.9 (97th-percentile) Burst Score, and 10.95 (94th-percentile) Agility Score. With a 155.7 (100th-percentile) SPARQ-x score, McKinnon’s Best Comparable Player on PlayerProfiler is LaDainian Tomlinson, who finished with over 13,000 rushing yards in 11 seasons.

The winning play is to draft the least expensive member of the 49ers backfield. McKinnon’s FFPC ADP sits at 231.73, making him the 66th running back off the board on average. This will leave owners with great value and guaranteed opportunity in a San Francisco backfield that is often riddled with injury and in need of a late-season performer. If you don’t draft McKinnon now, it might be too late.

Despite the decrease in overall pass volume, Aaron Rodgers finished top-5 among qualified quarterbacks with 85 (No. 4) Red Zone Attempts, 94 (No. 2) Deep Ball Attempts, and 34 (No. 1) Money Throws. It’s alarming that the high volume in high-leverage fantasy points-scoring situations did not get him into the top-10 at his position in Fantasy Points per Game. These volume stats were also higher in 2019 than they were in 2018. It is illogical to expect an increase in these stats in 2020.

At 37 years old, Rodgers is in decline. His arm is no longer elite and his rushing production has diminished to average in the NFL among quarterbacks, ranking No. 16 last year with 183 rushing yards. These two traits are what made him an elite fantasy quarterback option in fantasy football. Without these traits Rodgers is, at best, a streaming option. Don’t draft him as a QB1. Let the competition pick him up believing in the façade of him being a “safe” QB1 option.

After being groomed to take over for Greg Olsen for the last two years, Ian Thomas is set to become Carolina’s starting tight end and nobody seems to care. Though his career efficiency metrics have not been impressive, he has produced TE1 fantasy performances when Olsen has missed time. Unlike our other LRTE Roulette candidates, Thomas has multiple games with a Snap Share above 90-percent on his pro resume, including his lone TE1 outing last year.

Without Gerald Everett being injured, Tyler Higbee wouldn’t have put up 31-percent of his career yardage in a five-week span with top-tier matchups. That Everett managed to record a 50.2-percent (No. 28 among qualified tight ends) Route Participation mark in 12 games played compared to Higbee’s 45.4-percent (No. 33) mark in 14 games played tells us all we need to know about who the better player is when both are healthy.

With the draft day trade to Miami, Matt Breida saw an instant boost in fantasy value. Instead of fighting for scraps in a crowded 49ers backfield, he’s now in line for significant touches on a thin depth chart. The Dolphins are an ascending offense with talented playmakers and they added four offensive linemen in the draft. His explosiveness and pass-catching ability makes him the back to target in Miami.

Every Arizona lead running back during the 2019 season put up significant fantasy performances, combining for nine top-12 weeks between them. Fantasy drafters are selecting Chase Edmonds at his floor with an ADP outside the top-50 RBs. His ceiling is not factored into his price, making him a fantastic target in the double-digit rounds. Edmonds is a league-winner if anything happens to Kenyan Drake.

The Indianapolis Colts will play the NFC North, the AFC North, the Jets, the Raiders, and their own division twice. That list includes mostly run-first teams with erratic quarterback play resulting in a more conservative offensive game plan; i.e. low scoring and high-turnover opponents. Their own division is up for grabs and arguably among the easier divisions in football.

The Colts’ offseason moves indicate that this team plans to win games utilizing the running game and their elite offensive line. Based on their talent and schedule, they easily can be a top defense. Their affordable ADP in fantasy drafts makes them the ideal target in redraft and best ball leagues. Don’t overpay for last years rankings, go buy this years defensive league winner.

Kareem Hunt’s ceiling is the highest of any of the Zero RB targets. If Nick Chubb goes down, Hunt slides into a massive Opportunity Share. He would have the Cleveland backfield to himself, absorbing all the carries, receptions, and touchdowns. He would instantly become a top-five fantasy running back. We don’t even have to assume that he can do it, we’ve seen it from him already.

Phillip Lindsay is explosive in the passing game. He struggled with drops in 2019, but he caught 35 passes in each of his first two pro seasons and held a 14.6-percent (93rd-percentile among qualified running backs) College Target Share in college. He has shown enough to believe he will still hold a fair share of the Broncos backfield work. If Melvin Gordon gets injured or proves ineffective, we already know Lindsay can step into that RB1 role and thrive.

There are many data points on the JaMycal Hasty profile that make him a worthwhile stash. The big knock on him is his 12.8-percent (13th-percentile among qualified running backs) College Dominator Rating. He played four seasons of college ball but peaked at second in rushing yardage on his own team. He has an intriguing skillset for a UDFA, but the incoming price correction from fantasy players overreacting to the Raheem Mostert news could make him a chalk-fade within weeks.

Jeff Wilson’s athleticism doesn’t immediately rule him out of fantasy viability, but it certainly puts him at a disadvantage. He did not record a single athletic measurable that was above average when testing. Unlike JaMycal Hasty, what Wilson lacks in athleticism he makes up for with actual production. He also has reps in the most valuable role in modern football: the goal line back. He recorded 2.3 red zone carries per game in San Francisco’s first seven games last year.

In a draft class that included Jonathan Taylor, D’Andre Swift, J.K. Dobbins, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Cam Akers is flying under the radar. He was even selected before Dobbins in this year’s NFL Draft. At 5-10, 217-pounds with a 4.47 (87th-percentile among qualified running backs) 40-Yard Dash and 108.7 (89th-percentile) Speed Score, Akers fits the mold of a feature back.

There is hope that this Rams offensive line can surprise with health and continuity as it did in 2017 and 2018. Akers’ youth, health, and profile should help even if there is no improvement along the offensive line. If he receives a similar Opportunity Share to Gurley’s 2019 mark where he inefficiently averaged 14.5 (No. 17) Fantasy Points per Game, there’s no telling what he can do. 

Similar to 2019, this season offers multiple running back options in the later rounds of fantasy drafts. While the high-end backs are worth their price, there is enough value late that wide receiver can still be the focus early on. According to current ADP, Chris Carson and Mark Ingram are once again going in the fifth round or later. Derrius Guice, a player with compelling metrics, is going in the seventh round. Though there is history of injury and competition in Washington, Guice is a prime breakout candidate.

Not only does this running back rookie class ooze talent, but there is also depth. Zack Moss, Anthony McFarland and Joshua Kelly are late-round rookies with intriguing player profiles. They also have an opportunity to make an instant impact given their situations. Moss and Kelly will have opportunity right away and McFarland is a James Conner injury away from becoming Ben Roethlisberger’s best friend. These players can be added to the list of names to target in the later rounds to fill out depth at the position.

Much like the running backs, any receiver with a shot at No. 1 duties gets a massive boost in their rankings in the #SFBX format. With Deebo Samuel set to miss Week 1 and a push to start the year on the PUP, Brandon Aiyuk has a legitimate shot at being the top wide receiver on an efficient offense. The Arizona State product posted an 82nd-percentile College Dominator Rating on top of an 87th-percentile College Target Share. At 6-0 and 205-pounds, Aiyuk has the profile and size to earn an alpha role in his rookie season.

Coming out of Alabama, Irv Smith was a dynamic prospect. He possessed above-average speed even when factoring in his 6-2, 242-pound bowling ball frame. He also posted 16.1 (87th-percentile) college yards per reception by dominating defenders with his quickness. His upside is taking over for Kyle Rudolph as the TE1 on a Minnesota team that desperately needs a target opposite Adam Thielen. The Scott Fish Bowl rankings recognize that volume-based upside and give him a boost.