Draft Strategy

History has shown that a healthy Cam Newton is a force to be reckoned with. Superman finished as a top 4 fantasy QB in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2015, and 2017. Between 2011 and 2018, he rushed for at least 359 yards and has a career average of 7.5 rushing attempts per game. Even a less than 100-percent Newton ran for 488 (No. 4 among qualified quarterbacks) yards in 2018 and provided a nice floor of 34.9 rushing yards per game.

Gardner Minshew ranked No. 5 in both rushing yards per game (24.5) and carries per game (4.8) last year, outrushing the likes of Russell Wilson and Daniel Jones. A weakened defense and improved offensive weapons in Jacksonville also point to more passing volume. In addition to his underrated scrambling ability, a top-5 Deep Ball Completion Percentage suggests that he’s also capable of piling up yards through the air. The sophomore QB is a buy in all formats at his price.

The Jaguars are fully committed to Gardner Minshew entering 2020. He ranked No. 5 among qualified quarterbacks in Deep Ball Completion Percentage, making him a perfect compliment to D.J. Chark’s size and speed on the outside. A team constantly facing negative Game Scripts and low-efficiency defenses will tee up Chark to smash his mid-round ADP.

It has been almost two years since we last saw A.J. Green on a football field, but do not forget the player he was before exiting the 2018 season with toe and ankle injuries. In the half a season he did play, Green averaged 2.11 (No. 11) Yards per Pass Route and had a 31.9-percent (No. 6) Dominator Rating, while posting impressive marks in many of PlayerProfiler’s opportunity-based metrics. No wide receiver available at Green’s draft range offers the kind of league-winning upside that he does.

Miles Sanders is costly in drafts this season and deserves to be. He can go No. 5 overall after the big four running backs and still be a value. Sanders presents overall RB1 upside with a top 12 floor. He proved last season that he is a workhorse, and the coaching staff has said multiple times that they plan on using him as such in 2020. The Eagles committed no draft capital or significant money to indicate otherwise.

D’Andre Swift has the same amount of league-winning upside as Jonathan Taylor, but comes at half the cost in drafts. He is set to follow a similar path as 2019 Miles Sanders. The committee approach we have seen in the Lions backfield over the last few years has suppressed his ADP to the fifth round of FFPC drafts. Swift will take over this backfield the same way Sanders dominated in Philadelphia. Build a team that can get you to the playoffs and let Swift carry you to a championship.

Juju Smith-Schuster; yet a hype train that is way out of control. While there are aspects of his player profile to like, there are an abundance of red flags. Similar to Austin Ekeler, the draft price is too costly given the talent and circumstance. His Best Comparable Player is DeAndre Hopkins, but unlike the former Texan, Smith-Schuster couldn’t produce with lackluster quarterback play last year. It’s fair to wonder if the 2018 version of Smith-Schuster will ever be seen again.

The optimism behind Austin Ekeler, and the reason for rostering him, is his receiving skills out of the backfield. He ranked No. 2 among qualified running backs in Targets Per Game (6.8), receptions (92) and receiving yards (993) in 2019. The issue is his struggles running the ball effectively, raising questions about his ability to be a three-down back. Meaning Ekeler’s teammates, Justin Jackson and rookie Joshua Kelley, will see far more action than most expect.

Targets and opportunities matter for wide receivers. Last year, A.J. Brown ranked No. 47 among qualified wide receivers with 84 targets, only drawing a 19.5-percent (No. 41) Target Share. Yet, he’s the 16th wide receiver being drafted per FFPC ADP data. His low target and Target Share numbers are unsustainable, and it’s risky to trust a wide receiver with a low target share in a low-volume passing offense. 

The main concerns surround the extreme efficiency paired with a team with such little passing volume. Brown ranked No. 2 in Fantasy Points per Target while ranking No. 47 in total targets and No. 41 in Target Share on an offense that nearly averaged the fewest passes per game. The unsustainably extreme efficiency and the opportunity metrics clash, and Brown’s ADP doesn’t reflect it.

Using late round draft capital on running back handcuffs is a losing proposition. The goal with late round picks is to draft Week 1 breakouts before they become top waiver adds. Avoid straight handcuffs such as Tony Pollard and Ryquell Armstead. Wide receivers are much better upside plays in the late rounds (i.e. Terry McLaurin and Marquise Brown last year). However, committee backs with Week 1 roles that will expand in the case of injury are also great targets.

DeAndre Hopkins goes from being a target hog for Deshaun Watson to being one of many talented receivers for Kyler Murray. While Murray is a talented young quarterback, Arizona’s target distribution and overall offensive output is still uncertain. Top-flight wide receivers have a long history of losing value in the season after changing quarterbacks due to lost rapport. Hopkins still has a WR1 outcome in his range of possibilities, but the risk at his top 5 positional ADP makes him an easy fade.

It’s important not to take the term “Zero RB” too literally. It is a draft strategy predicated on avoiding non-elite running backs, those who see plenty of empty calorie touches but are not true difference makers at the position. When drafting from the back half of the first round, instead of taking lower-end RB1s to try to chase the Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley teams, Zero RB allows our team to be strong everywhere else.

The absolute worst thing we can do is to start a draft WR-WR and then start chasing running backs in what Sean Koerner of the Action Network has dubbed the Frozen Pond tier. This year, that includes running backs such as Leonard Fournette, Todd Gurley, Le’Veon Bell, and David Johnson – non-elite running backs being pushed up due to nothing more than projected touches.

Fewer teams are implementing one workhorse back, while more coaches are rolling with committee backfields. This is a trend that has been happening for years now. Coaches call for three-receiver sets at a rate exceeding 60-percent, which has created an inundation of available pass catchers. Still, there are people who wait to hit on a workhorse back via injury while stockpiling receiver early. A completely backwards approach when considering the positional supplies available.

The alpha wide receiver nears extinction. Gone are the days of a Julio Jones dominating their team’s Target Shares. All of a sudden, dynamic receiver duos such as Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf have taken the league by storm. The ability to lock up a workhorse, “do-it-all” back is fleeting after the first round ends. Drafting a back that never comes off the field and smashes, such as Christian McCaffrey, bestows exponentially higher league-winning odds than the top targeted receiver in a given year.

Rob Gronkowski presents double-digit touchdown upside and will return value at his cost. The injury risk is already baked into his ADP. Not to mention he had an entire year away from football to rehabilitate his body and prepare for a return to the NFL. The “crowded” Tampa Bay receiver corps and tight end room is actually a boost for Gronk’s value. It seems counter-intuitive, but less time on the field means less wear and tear, and the targets he draws will all be high-quality and high-efficiency opportunities.

Jonathan Taylor is the second-best running back prospect since Saquon Barkley. Many cannot appreciate his profile because the odds of having two Barkleys only two years apart are low. He’s a can’t-miss prospect running behind an elite offensive line in a run-first system. Players cannot miss on the 1.01 in rookie drafts and we draft players for life in dynasty. Taylor at 1.01 is the safest bet anyone can make in fantasy football in 2020.

My wife made me promise I wouldn’t pick David Johnson under any circumstances. Not for her sake, for my own. Can’t blame her; she just doesn’t want to see me get hurt again. I can also never get myself to push the button on Chris Carson. I passed on both in favor of Cam Akers in the fourth round. The potential for Akers to become the lead dog in the Rams backfield, combined with his own ability, give him the upside edge.

I knew I wanted pieces of a Jacksonville offense that’s projected to see a good amount of negative Game Script. With an #SFBX ADP of WR19, I knew I had to take D.J. Chark as the 19th receiver off the board and above receivers we had ranked higher. Still, if I’m going to have an alpha to build an RB-heavy squad around, I’m glad it’s a player who many sharp minds in the industry are touting.