Draft Strategy

Rashod Bateman is an excellent wide receiver prospect and a consensus first-round NFL and dynasty draft pick. His advanced stats and metrics are great, but does his college career suggest a WR1, a true Batman, to target in first rounds of dynasty drafts? Or does it describe a Robin, a higher-floor, lower-ceiling WR2 and lesser dynasty value?

Bateman becoming a top NFL wide receiver would belie his college performance and would be an outlier. His college performance suggests a solid NFL player, a WR2 or WR3 on a fantasy team, but not what we should be looking for in a first-round rookie pick.

Tyler Boyd being available as my first WR in the seventh round validated my decision to go ZeroWR. Diontae Johnson also proved vital for the first few weeks before I became trigger-happy and swapped him for Chase Claypool after the rookie’s 40-burger in Week 5. Miles Sanders going into one of my IR slots to start the year allowed me to pick up Robby Anderson to tie the WR core together for the year, though leaving his 20-plus points on the bench almost cost me a Week 1 victory.

My 11th-round selection of Cam Newton ensured that I wouldn’t be locked into starting him all season and could play waivers as needed, even in a 14-team league since not many teams rostered backups with the shallow benches. The QB Frankenstein of players I started at least once: Newton, Gardner Minshew, Teddy Bridgewater, Tom Brady, Taysom Hill and Jalen Hurts. The Hurts pickup proved particularly vital, as he single-handedly lifted me to victory in the semifinals.

Carson Wentz attempted 69 (No. 10 among qualified quarterbacks) Deep Balls in 2019 and had a 34.8-percent (No. 19) completion percentage on those throws. This plays to DeSean Jackson’s strength as it relates to fantasy football. Even if he is only a boom-bust flex in 2020, dependent on one big play, he’s running deep routes for one of the most frequent deep-ball passers in the league with little target competition.

DeSean Jackson’s fantasy football ADP can pay off with just the monster weeks he potentially has while Alshon Jeffery is out. That can only be two games. If so, depending on roster construction, Jackson is the ultimate sell-high to start the season, or we wait and see. In a worst-case scenario, Jeffery reverts back to 2019 form and Jackson returns back to the boom-bust flex you initially drafted. Jackson, in this scenario, will still have his weeks. Just not as consistently. That’s fine at his ADP.

Part of the reason that Zack Moss has more fantasy football upside than advertised is due to his proficiency in the passing game. The 2019 PAC-12 Offensive Player of the Year captured a 9.0-percent (68th-percentile among qualified running backs) Target Share in his senior season, catching 28 passes on 29 targets. Devin Singletary, on the other hand, finished with a 69.0-percent (No. 38) Catch Rate in his rookie season in the NFL.

In addition to the probability that Zack Moss gets most of the receptions, there’s also the fact that Devin Singletary may have a short leash with fumbling issues. He finished with the highest fumble rate at the running back position in the 2019 season, and reports of continued fumbling issues at Bills training camp indicate that the problem may persist in 2020. Moss already appears to have a significant role heading into the season. There’s a strong chance he assumes lead back duties early in 2020.

D.J. Chark entered the league profiling as a field-stretching wide receiver. This was the role he played in college, averaging 21.9 (97th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) yards per reception. At 6-3 and 199-pounds, Chark ran a 4.34 (98th-percentile) 40-Yard Dash. This equates to an elite 115.3 (96th-percentile) Speed Score. Further, his 132.5 (93rd-percentile) Burst Score adds additional evidence that he is an elite-level athlete: a Tyreek Hill-type, in a typical X-receiver body.

In the 14 games Gardner Minshew started last season, D.J. Chark averaged 14.2 Fantasy Points per Game. This helped placed him among the top 24 wide receivers in FPPG by season’s end. His success with Minshew was largely predicated by the rookie quarterback’s uncanny ability to connect on deep passes, evidenced by a 45.1-percent (No. 5) Deep Ball Completion Percentage. Assuming he is able to maintain this level of deep ball efficiency, Chark is an unquestioned WR2 with week-winning ability.

While Cam Akers, the current RB22 per FFPC ADP data, holds top 10 upside in 2020 and beyond, the Rams’ veteran starter in Malcolm Brown goes undrafted in most formats. If Darrell Henderson, the current RB47, stays healthy, the three-headed monster in LA could be a pain for fantasy games all season long. If Akers takes the reigns early, he has the highest upside and has league-winner written all over him.

The dynamic trio of Lamar Jackson, Mark Ingram, and J.K. Dobbins can all be had, but at a steep price, with all three going inside the first six rounds in FFPC formats. Spending early round capital on multiple backs in the same backfield is less than ideal in fantasy football. Though if you can hedge the Ravens backfield by pairing Jackson in Round 2 with both Ingram AND Dobbins in the mid-rounds, it will give you an upper hand on the competition. 

There is no doubt that Drew Brees was the best passing quarterback in the NFL last season. Efficiency, although impressive, does not equate to fantasy football upside. His 6.8 (No. 32) yards of Pass Attempt Distance Per Attempt attributed to his efficient play in fantasy last season. His efficiency won’t matter when he loses passing volume. Because volume leads to fantasy points, Brees’ decreased pass attempts will disappoint people drafting him top 7 at his position.

Tyler Higbee had two events occur for him to become a fantasy football sensation. The first was he faced the easiest stretch of tight end defenses over five weeks. The second was a knee hyperextension to Gerald Everett in Week 12. Higbee’s current FFPC ADP of 74.58 is an example of projecting a small sample size out to a full season. A healthy Everett will prevent Higbee from returning expected value at his ADP cost.

Standing at 5-7, Boston Scott packs a punch with his 4.45 (91st-percentile among qualified running backs) 40-yard dash and 10.82 (97th-percentile) Agility Score. Scott finished 2019 on a tear, totaling 350 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns over the final four games. Although undersized, he fits perfectly in the Eagles scheme as a satellite back and spot starter with RB2 upside.

While Melvin Gordon was holding out in 2019, Justin Jackson was busy competing with Austin Ekeler for touches. In three weeks as the primary backup, Jackson averaged eight touches per game to 19 for Ekeler. Jackson’s ability to evade tacklers with a 10.88 (96th-percentile) Agility Score allowed him to gain 6.9 Yards Per Carry and nine first downs on only 29 (No. 82) carries. In the event Ekeler goes down, it would be Jackson that would get the call to replace him, not the rookie Joshua Kelley.

There is reason for optimism regarding Jimmy Garoppolo this year. San Francisco’s gameplan last year was to grind the rock and let their elite defense win games. With defensive efficiency being extremely difficult to carry over from year to year, this team will be forced to throw more after ranking No. 4 in Game Script per PlayerProfiler. Additionally, Garoppolo displayed an unheralded tendency to tuck and run with 46 (No. 13 among qualified quarterbacks) rush attempts last year.

Baker Mayfield has not had the strongest start to his career, but do not lose sight of the fact that this was one of the best QB prospects of all time. He put up a 92.6 (97th-percentile) College QBR with an 11.5 (98th-percentile) Yards per Attempt mark and an 18.4 (100th-percentile) Breakout Age. The pieces haven’t come together yet in Cleveland, but this may be the year they do given the weapons at Mayfield’s disposal. This looks like a situation for a top 10 fantasy QB.

Given the shortened offseason, the chemistry Jonnu Smith has already formed with Ryan Tannehill is super important. An 85.7-percent Contested Catch Rate on seven targets combined with a 4.4-percent (No. 2 among qualified tight ends) Drop Rate and 89.7-percent (No. 7) True Catch Rate will ensure he remains a trusted component of a passing game destined to see more work. 

Despite drawing 10 (No. 6) Deep Targets and averaging 9.9 (No. 5) yards of Average Target Distance, Dawson Knox had a 90.0-percent (No. 5) Catchable Target Rate and a 6.3 (No. 3) Target Quality Rating. He averaged 13.9 (No. 3) Yards per Reception and 7.8 (No. 14) Yards per Target. Entering year two, he’s more qualified to play Buffalo’s deep threat role than recently acquired Stefon Diggs, a splash play possession receiver in all but last season.