Draft Strategy

Though Amari Rodgers didn’t pop athletically at his pro day, falling to 3.08 from 2.04 between Underworld vs. RosterWatch mocks is likely an overcorrection for a player with Lynn Bowden and Deebo Samuel among his Best Comparable Players. After letting Nico Collins slip to the Underworld at 4.10 last time, Byron Lambert and the RosterWatch crew ensured his services by taking him at the 3.11 and making us feel All Mixed Up.

Before any athletic testing is even taken into account, Javian Hawkins checked in with a top 10 Breakout Rating among this year’s rookie backs. Even if he falls a bit in the app’s next update once the pro day numbers are accounted for, he’s the kind of player that can overcome Day 3 draft capital and make an impact as a satellite back if he lands on the right team.

There’s a lot of QB talent in the NFL already, more is on the way and there’s only so much room at the top of the heap. That’s why Trevor Lawrence, as great as he will undoubtedly become, has a low-end QB1 dynasty ranking. And while, yes, a low-end QB1 is an excellent NFL player, what does that get us in fantasy over a middling signal caller?

I’m not seeing how choosing a QB at 1.01 – even if it’s Lawrence – does not require a moment’s thought. Staying on 1.01 Island and choosing Lawrence sets you up with a good QB for a long time, but means foregoing similar gains that might be out there at other positions – e.g., Travis Etienne, Najee Harris, Javonte Williams, Ja’Marr Chase and Kyle Pitts.

Quietly averaging 13.2 (No. 22 among qualified running backs) Fantasy Points per Game last season on a Broncos team averaging 27.6 (No. 13) Team Run Plays per Game, while splitting touches roughly 16-11 with Philip Lindsay, Gordon is primed to be a high-floor, high-ceiling fantasy asset. High floor because of the proven capability to produce on a capped workload, high ceiling because of the direct path to a three-down role in Lindsay’s absence.

A former first-round pick, Nelson Agholor will unlock a consistent Deep Ball threat for the New England offense. He totaled a 15.1 (No. 5) Average Target Distance mark, 22 (No. 12) Deep Targets, and 1,273 (No. 17) Air Yards with the Raiders last season. Pairing Agholor with Cam Newton’s 53.8-percent (No. 4) Deep Ball Completion Percentage is a match made in heaven, and prevents defenses from stacking the box and playing shallow against the Patriots offense. He is a sturdy draft target as a WR4.

The Bills have maximized Josh Allen’s size-adjusted athleticism in the most pivotal area of the field when it matters most: the red zone. Rushing touchdown regression is unlikely due to how he is deployed near the goal line. In 2020, we saw him rush 24 times inside the 20, tying him with Kyler Murray for attempts inside that distance. While this usage cripples the fantasy ceilings of Zack Moss and Devin Singletary, it bolsters both Allen’s floor and ceiling.

Even with questionable decision making, questionable play calling, and general coaching ineptitude, Kyler Murray finished the season with a 24.4 (No. 3 among qualified quarterbacks) Fantasy Points per Game average. While he only threw for over 300 passing yards three times, his rushing production more than made up for it. Given his otherworldly burst, it’s not unreasonable to assume he has a shot of breaking the all-time single-season QB rushing record as soon as next year.

Memphis is the new Running Back U. Kenny Gainwell was not a dominant college prospect, but you have to appreciate a 6.3 (79th-percentile among qualified running backs) College YPC average and you have to LOVE a 51-reception season being on the resume.

Nico Collins is 6-4 and 215-pounds. This is elite size and carries starting outside alpha-level upside potential with it. He outproduced Donovan Peoples-Jones for two of their three college seasons together, and was held back by the poor Michigan offense. He adds an 80th-percentile Breakout Age and 92nd-percentile College YPR average. No other players have this kind of upside at this point in the draft.

Devonta Smith ranks highly in all of the Breakout Finder metrics, the highest Teammate Score in the BOF database being the highlight, and he protects to be a top-10 NFL Draft pick. A Heisman-winning WR is the kind of player that deserves to be a first round rookie pick in any format.

Tutu Atwell is a straight dog as a receiver with an 18.9 (92nd-percentile among qualified wide receivers) Breakout Age and 35.1-percent (96th-percentile) College Target Share to pair with elite speed and athleticism. He is undersized at 5-9 and 165-pounds, but translates into a dangerous slot weapon in the NFL.

With Curtis Samuel set to walk in free agency, D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson are primed to be what we target in fantasy football: high-floor, high-ceiling assets. High floor because of the narrow pass distribution and boost in volume. High ceiling because of the potential of better, efficient quarterback play.

Already in a narrow pass distribution tree, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd are looking at an increase in targets in an already high-volume pass attack. Backed by a weak defense, we’re looking at another high-floor, high-ceiling receiver duo if Joe Burrow makes strides in Year 2. Boyd is going in the sixth round as WR26, while Higgins is going in the seventh as WR33.

For the next few months, the RotoUnderworld community will be partaking in a series of 12-team, five-round rookie mock drafts. The mock drafters will be comprised of PlayerProfiler writers/analysts, our friends in the Patreon community and our friends over at The Breakout Finder. While these pieces will include quick-hitting notes from the drafters about why they made their selection, our writers will take turns recapping the festivities and adding their own unique perspectives.

With five QBs potentially earmarked for the first round of the NFL Draft, and subsequently the top half of the first round of many a SuperFlex rookie draft, it feels like the middle portion will be the ideal spot to pick from and the range to target in potential trade-downs. For me, having PlayerProfiler’s No. 5-ranked rookie in SF/TEP formats in Travis Etienne waiting for me at the 1.08 reinforces this notion.

For the next few months, the RotoUnderworld community will be partaking in a series of 12-team, five-round rookie mock drafts. The mock drafters will be comprised of PlayerProfiler writers/analysts, our friends in the Patreon community and our friends over at The Breakout Finder. While these pieces will include quick-hitting notes from the drafters about why they made their selection, our writers will take turns recapping the festivities and adding their own unique perspectives.

Coming away with any real takeaways from the first round of any rookie mock draft will be difficult unless there’s a player or two that end up going higher or lower than consensus. Of the players picked in the first round, only Elijah Moore is not ranked among our top 12 dynasty rookies. He’s not that far off, but making an argument for him over a Terrace Marshall or a Kenny Gainwell in this spot is more than feasible given his advanced stats and metrics.

It’s RotoUnderworld vs. RosterWatch in a fierce, ongoing, totally-serious-with-no-room-for-cheeky-shenanigans series of fantasy football mock drafts. We begin with a recap of the first five-round rookie mock under the RW vs. RU banner.

As is the case in every mock draft, there will be picks that wildly stray from what is perceived to be consensus, depending on who you ask of course. The “Kyle Pitts No Matter What” crowd will have no issue with seeing him go at 1.04, even in a single QB, non-TE premium format. However, the first real Point of Divergence came with Cody Carpentier’s 1.06 selection of Jermar Jefferson over Javonte Williams.