Draft Strategy

Only 11 of the top 21 picks in this SuperFlex startup draft were quarterbacks, including two rookies in Trey Lance and Trevor Lawrence. Jalen Hurts and Justin Fields were available here in round two, while D’Andre Swift and A.J. Brown were also on the board. Due to this league’s settings requiring only one running back to start, that position should be discounted. Hurts’ rushing ability gives him league-winning upside, so I chose him here to lock down the QB position.

Michael Thomas in the fifth round feels wrong. If Jameis Winston is under center, he will have the kind of league-winning upside that he showed in 2019. With Taysom Hill at quarterback, his ceiling is a little bit lower, but he is still a top receiver in the league. The only real mark against him in dynasty is his age, but he is younger than Davante Adams and DeAndre Hopkins, and only a year older than Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, Allen Robinson, and Mike Evans.

Amon-Ra St. Brown and Nico Collins jump up the board after landing in super shallow receiver rooms. St. Brown can seize a phenomenal opportunity to be the alpha in Detroit with his 86th-percentile Burst. Not to mention that he also checks the boxes for upper-percentile College Dominator Rating (62nd-percentile) and Breakout Age (91st-percentile).

Seth Williams is the biggest faller in this round after going at the 3.07 in the previous mock. Sixth round draft capital to a team with a crowded wide receiver depth chart sunk the value of what was once a coveted prospect in this circle. Though his upper-percentile College Dominator Rating, Breakout Age, and Speed Score give him the potential to break out regardless of his situation.

Grab a cup of water, this mock comes out of the gate HOT! Setting flames to a stacked QB class, Kyle Pitts boldly goes at the 1.01. That’s planting a flag, love the assertiveness! The win-win move is probably trading back and still acquiring Pitts – that’s not an option in this mock. He’s an uber talent, but the rookie has significant work to do to match the ultra-high expectations of this draft season.

In this TE premium format, our drafters take a gamble on several upside TEs in Round 5. Focusing on the right details, each of the tight-ends selected have one thing in common – athleticism. For instance, 6-5, 250-pound John Bates has an 11.20 (89th-percentile among qualified tight ends) Agility Score, while Indy’s Kylen Granson exhibits 75th-plus-percentile metrics across agility, burst and 40-time. The late-round lesson here: bet on athletes.

Of the 138 tight ends drafted since 2011, only Evan Engram finished his rookie year with a top five fantasy point-scoring season. “But what about that Falcons offense? Wasn’t that the best possible landing spot and doesn’t that guarantee Kyle Pitts to be a top fantasy tight end this year?” When Pitts finishes closer to No. 10 than No. 5, those that took him early in their best ball and redraft leagues will be disappointed.

In best ball and redraft leagues thus far, Pitts is being drafted like a top five fantasy tight end. While he has an impressive profile and draft capital, we have seen players with similar profiles in the past have varying career success levels. Spending a top 60 pick in best ball or a top 2 pick in dynasty rookie drafts on someone other than Pitts is a smarter decision based on history.

Kadarius Toney adds a different and unique element to the Giants offense when considering the skillsets of the players around him. He has the sort of special teams ability the Giants have lacked since the days of Ron Dixon and Willie Ponder, and he’s athletic enough to be used as a decoy X-receiver at worst while he acclimates to the pro game. He is a converted QB, so he has plenty of room to grow, though these kinds of players aren’t usually first round NFL Draft picks. 

While Chris Evans lost the draft capital and landing spot battle to fellow Michigan teammate Nico Collins, his stock didn’t plummet as far as Tamorrion Terry’s. Though he went undrafted, the Seattle WR depth chart is wide open behind D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, who we advocated selling anyway. If anyone in this class has the potential to be this year’s UDFA gem, why not a guy who was as highly regarded a prospect as Terry was at one point?

With four RotoUnderworld SuperFlex/TE Premium mock drafts in the books, the top five in ADP has emerged as Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Najee Harris, Travis Etienne, and Trey Lance. It makes sense. Secure either the most highly regarded prospect in the class, an elite running back, or a mobile quarterback that oozes fantasy upside.

The strength of the class at the QB position is pushing plenty of upside into the second round of SuperFlex rookie drafts. Exciting wide receiver prospects Jaylen Waddle, Terrace Marshall, and Elijah Moore can all be drafted with an early-to-mid second. Kenny Gainwell did gain well to the tune of 12-pounds and continues to creep up into the mid-second round. Pat Freiermuth, Dyami Brown, and Michael Carter continue to be fixtures in the Pick No. 20 to 24 range.

Over the last month, we conducted our first RotoUnderworld Redraft Mock Draft of the season. And this is a good page to bookmark and juxtapose with our post-NFL Draft mock that will release next month. We had 14 teams, PPR scoring, and we drafted 15 rounds. Starting lineups consist of 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 Flex (RB/WR/TE), a defense, and a kicker.

I did not have Jonathan Taylor going at 1.03 on the bingo card. If Taylor is your guy though, you have no other option because he’s obviously not going to be there in the late second round. Cam Akers and D’Andre Swift went in the first 10 picks as well. That won’t be eye-popping by August.

David Montgomery was fantasy football’s RB6 on a points-per-game basis last season. His glut of opportunity led him to average 100.5 Total Yards per Game and 3.6 (No. 7 among qualified running backs) Receptions per Game, score 10 (No. 10) Total Touchdowns, and produce 11 top-24 weekly finishes, including six consecutive top-eight finishes to end the season. With the signing of Damien Williams, however, Montgomery is a clear fade this year based on ADP in redraft leagues.

From Weeks 1-3 when Tarik Cohen was healthy, David Montgomery was fantasy football’s RB26 on a points-per-game basis. Now enter Damien Williams. Usually, targeting ambiguous backfields creates one of the biggest edges in redraft leagues for fantasy gamers, but in the case of the Bears, not one back will offer stand-alone fantasy value unless an injury occurs.

In a 2 QB rookie draft, one would expect it to start QB-QB-QB, and it did from 1.02-1.04. But at the 1.01, our guy Jay Dozier grabbed Najee Harris. After a month of disappointing pro days, Harris was actually one of the big winners after not testing athletically at either Alabama pro day.

With guys like Kellen Mond, Kyle Trask, and Mac Jones getting pushed up boards, it allows players like Jaylen Waddle and Devonta Smith to drop into the early/mid-second round. This is exciting for rookie draft value, which is the key in any draft, and is ultra important in 2021. The late-second to early-third round is the ideal draft position in 2 QB rookie drafts if you are set at the quarterback position.

Without any athletic testing numbers, or even an official height and weight, Devonta Smith is the ultimate black box NFL prospect. But when dealing with a black box prospect who’s also a Heisman Trophy winner, we should be allowed to err on the side of the higher-end Best Comparable Player in the legendary Joe Horn. His Breakout Rating will be helped by his inevitable early round draft selection.

From being undrafted in our first SuperFlex/TE Premium outing to creeping into the fourth round last time and the second round this time, Kellen Mond is slowly working his way up in these mocks. Once the Elite Five signal callers are off the board, the placement of the remaining QBs will largely be determined by draft position/landing spot. The Texas A&M product has a bit of Konami Code appeal to him and can end up being a value by the end of this process.