Best Ball Plays & Strategy

Tevin Coleman (Underdog ADP: 176.7) is being drafted of Ty Johnson (ADP: 213.2) in best ball. Coleman, who averaged 1.9 yards per carry last year, is being billed as a possible ‘starter,’ but has almost zero chance to emerge as a league-winner at this stage of his career. If you draft under the assumption of a winning lineup, how will Coleman’s eight-point ‘usable week’ help your team? Take a flier on the higher-ceiling Johnson instead.

You are in Round 10 of your best ball draft and see Joe Burrow available well past ADP, so you snatch him despite having no Bengals players. Burrow has a top five season, helping vault you to the Best Ball Mania II final. However, if Burrow performs well, your score increases, but so do all the other entries rostering Burrow that week. The odds he hits his ceiling in a given week without a top performance from at least one of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, or Tyler Boyd are low.

In 2020, Ezekiel Elliott averaged 14.8 (No. 14 among qualified running backs) Fantasy Points Per Game, 65.3 (No. 15) rush yards per game, and 3.5 (No. 8) receptions per game. Additionally what made me excited, because this is a best ball league, was his 97.6 (No. 10) Best Ball Points Added. If low-end RB1 production is what we will get in a bad year, I am optimistic about what we can get in a year with a healthy Dak Prescott and a healthy offensive line.

Aside from Davante Adams, the biggest question marks on this team are the wide receivers, though there are some high-ceiling plays. Bryan Edwards has one of the lowest Breakout Ages in the entire PlayerProfiler database, Olamide Zaccheaus is Best Comparable to Jamison Crowder, and Jalen Reagor is a post-hype player who people were in on last year that walks into a better offensive situation this year.

Michael Thomas battled through an injury-plagued season and two quarterbacks playing at subpar levels, but still managed to hit the 15 fantasy point mark in three of his seven games, posting a 42.5-percent (No. 1 among qualified wide receivers) Air Yards Share. Enter Jameis Winston, who can provide Thomas with higher quality, fantasy relevant targets and elevate his stomach churning -35.9-percent (No. 107) Target Premium.

Dak Prescott’s pre-injury production last year was mind blowing: 27 (No. 30) Deep Ball Attempts, a 55.6-percent (No. 3) Deep Ball Completion Percentage, 1.2 (No. 8) Red Zone Carries per Game, 45.1 (No. 11) Best Ball Points Added, and the list goes on. While he might not have the rushing upside you’d like, Prescott has everything he needs to be a best ball star quarterback in 2021: talent, a high powered offense, a solid supporting cast, and negative Game Scripts.

Myles Gaskin’s current ADP on Underdog is in the middle of the fifth round at 56.4, putting him at RB24. Gaskin is the perfect RB2 for your Hero RB builds. He was one of the biggest winners of the NFL Draft, with Miami electing not to take an RB until the seventh round. If you want to be one of the winners of your draft, take him as your RB2 in the fifth. You’re welcome.

Despite playing second fiddle to Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt still saw 198 (No. 11 among qualified running backs) carries on a Browns team that averaged 30.9 (No. 4) Team Run Plays Per Game. Even with Chubb healthy, Hunt has consistently put up RB2 numbers. If you’re the type of fantasy player drafting for injury upside, then he is easily the best RB for you.

Austin Ekeler is discount Christian McCaffrey and is available 12 picks later. He’s in a perfect situation with the hyper-accurate Justin Herbert targeting him early and often every single game. We have already seen him have a 109-target season (2019), and 100-plus looks to be in the cards again this season. Ekeler has top five RB potential, and is almost always available around the 1/2 turn or later.

At 23 years old entering his third season, T.J. Hockenson is in a perfect storm of fantasy production. He has the talent and first-round pedigree, performed well last season, and is the most talented receiver on the team. It sounds an awful lot like 2020 Waller. If he gets 120 targets, he should outperform his current ADP, but there is potential for an elite 140-plus target season. Go and draft him.

While reaching too egregiously to complete any stacks is not recommended, the best way to win Best Ball Mania II will be to differentiate ourselves from the field while still being smart about optimal roster construction. Starting with four straight Dallas Cowboys may not be the world’s worst strategy given that, contrary to popular belief, there is no RB dead zone this season. It would still be a struggle to win this tournament without guaranteed bell cow production from at least two players.

Drafting two early quarterbacks is the key to survival in the Rookies and Sophomores format. Relying on Zach Wilson and/or Mac Jones to bail you out is not, especially when considering this stacked QB field. The key to putting together teams with this much upside is D’Andre Swift continuously being available in the fifth round, which allows me to go after players like Jalen Hurts and Brandon Aiyuk.

With all the hype surrounding Travis Etienne, James Robinson keeps seeing his ADP drop, which helps him land as a Way Too Early Seasonal Value Play at RB. From a real-life perspective, it’s confusing that the Jaguars drafted Etienne in the first round since they essentially struck gold with Robinson. Sure, he will likely eat into the receiving opportunities, but I’ll take the discount on Robinson in 2021. 

Even with Gardner Minshew and Mike Glennon as his QBs in 2020, D.J. Chark earned a 20.0-percent (No. 37 among qualified wide receivers) Target Share and 34.3-percent (No. 14) Air Yards Share. Overall, he feels like a post-hype receiver in 2021, which makes him my favorite Way Too Early Seasonal Value Play at WR.

I didn’t even have to think about smashing the draft button on J.K. Dobbins at 3.08. This likely gives me guaranteed points from my top two runners and my late selections can be purely based on upside. It’s not only his profile and metrics, but also his ability to score inside the five, where he scored on 88.9-percent of his rookie season carries, that gives him a massive ceiling. 

Tyrell Williams should see plenty of opportunities as he reunites with offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn. In two seasons with Lynn, while being the fourth pass-catching option, he had ten double-digit fantasy point games, and four with over 20 fantasy points. Now he will be the second or third option for the Lions, and with the last pick in a best ball draft, what more could you want?

Passing on TE at the 6-7 turn was risky, but worth it to nab the Russell Wilson-Jalen Hurts QB duo. But by the time it was my turn to pick in the eighth round, all of Dallas Goedert, Logan Thomas and Robert Tonyan were gone. I then realized I could have/should have passed on one of the QBs for a TE and honed in on Daniel Jones later to pair with Golladay. The tilt. It was, in fact, real.

Getting your QBs early in the Rookies and Sophomores format is basically an unwritten rule. Relying solely on this year’s rookie QB crop is a huge gamble, making a Jalen Hurts/Joe Burrow/Justin Herbert/Tua Tagovailoa selection a vital key to success.

On top of breaking the single season receptions record in 2019, Michael Thomas was also the WR1 in fantasy by a long shot. Although he wasn’t as electric in 2020, he was still the clear alpha while on the field. Look no further than his leading all qualified wide receivers with a 42.5-percent Air Yards Share. I will be ecstatic to take him at a discount this year.

In his rookie season, Brandon Aiyuk logged a 100.0-percent (No. 1) Route Participation rate and a 31.1-percent (No. 28) Air Yards Share. He put on a show against top corners like Kendall Fuller, Marshon Lattimore, and others. With Aiyuk likely getting a QB upgrade, I’ll pass on receivers like Cooper Kupp, Diontae Johnson and Adam Thielen to smash the value with Aiyuk.