The 2022 Falcons Backfield Breakdown is part of an offseason series in which I take a deep dive into one NFL team’s backfield and examine the respective rushing performances of the players in it. In doing so, I hope to gain insights into key players from a talent evaluation standpoint, and using that evaluation as a baseline, from a dynasty valuation standpoint.
If you’re reading this I’m sure you’ve had a disappointing season from one of your fantasy players that you either drafted early or paid handsomely for in a trade. For me, after not being able to get my hands on Christian McCaffrey for 3 years I finally received the 1.01 in one of my redraft leagues in 2020. Of course, once I finally got him he battled injuries all year and only played in 3 games. Another example would be Mike Davis last season who was picked up by many with the expectation he would be the Falcons starting running back. Unfortunately for Davis and his fantasy owners, Cordarrelle Patterson was finally allowed to truly showcase his talents and took hold of the most productive carries. In no particular order, here are 5 running backs to avoid as they have some valid red flags that may lead to disappointment in 2022.
The Las Vegas Raiders didn’t have this problem in 2021 when it was the Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller show. There was no third target in Las Vegas that demanded Derek Carr’s attention. Nothing could be further from the truth going into the 2022 campaign – not with the acquisition of Davante Adams, who is arguably the best receiver in the NFL.
Dalvin Cook has never played a full season, and he doesn’t necessarily need one to produce great numbers. 2021 wasn’t necessarily a bad year, averaging 15.9 (No. 9 among qualified running bacs) Fantasy Points Per Game in 13 games played. He finished with 1,159 (No. 5) rushing yards, but only scored six (No. 27) TDs. In 2020 he scored 17 times, and in 2019 he scored 13 times. Look for positive regression in the TD department next season, as well as more receptions.
2022 could be both a breakout and bounceback season for Cam Akers. While he hasn’t technically produced a great fantasy season yet, he has shown flashes of what he’s capable of. With Sony Michel gone, and a full offseason, he will look to return to form and finish as a top RB. He is the dynasty RB6 for a reason. He should be the main running back on the defending Super Bowl Champ Rams, which provides tons of upside.
In 2020, we saw Zach Ertz go from TE4 to TE31 due to injury and the emergence of Dallas Goedert. In 2021, Ertz would be traded to the Arizona Cardinals where he would become a favorite target and finish the year as TE5. Like any other year, 2022 should have some players bounce back from a poor season in 2021. Let’s take a look at five potential tight end bounceback candidates for 2022.
The Lions added Jameson Williams in the draft and D.J. Chark in free agency. Two excellent options to pair with Amon-Ra St. Brown, T.J. Hockenson, and D’Andre Swift. Look for Jared Goff to utilize his weapons in year 2 with the Dan Campbell Lions. And for some added entertainment this offseason, watch Hard Knocks which will follow the Lions this year.
Russell Wilson has only missed three games in his career, all in 2021 due to the tendon rupture. Providing that heals, he should have no setbacks in 2022. He is even more valuable in fantasy due to his ability to scramble for extra yards. He has averaged over 20.0 Fantasy Points Per Game in five different seasons, look for him to do it again next season. It’s possible the Matthew Stafford/Tom Brady trend continues with Wilson just as much as it does Matt Ryan.
The Giants have brought in former Bills Offensive Coordinator Brian Daboll to replace Joe Judge. Expectations are that the offense will improve under the new head coach, and that Daniel Jones will finally tap into his potential. If that happens, Kenny Golladay should definitely improve and at least average double-digit Fantasy Points Per Game like he has three times before in his career. This is a guy who scored 11 TDs in 2019, and it would be a surprise if he doesn’t at least get one in 2022.
Allen Robinson has had Blake Bortles, Chad Henne, Mitchell Trubisky, and Justin Fields as his quarterbacks and still, he’s had two top 10 seasons under his belt. Robinson has had four years with over 150 targets, an amount possible, but unlikely to get next year. Matthew Stafford threw the ball 601 times, and I don’t see why he’d throw the ball less next season. In fact, Stafford’s production could very well go up in Year 2 with the Rams as he is now fully adjusted to the system. Assuming he stays healthy and Beckham doesn’t return to LA, 2022 should be a great bounceback season for Robinson.
The TE13 drafted by UnderDog ADP, Jonnu Smith finds himself in a good position to help both the Patriots and your Underdog squad in 2021. In a large field tournament such as Best Ball Mania II, spike weeks from lightly owned players are critical difference makers. Positive regression is in store for Smith though after Tennessee’s overcrowded offense was exchanged for one desperate for playmakers.
Forecasting talent to overtake mediocrity paid dividends for Justin Herbert drafters last season. An intriguing rookie prospect behind an uninspiring incumbent and with whom high draft capital was invested this season is Trey Lance. If he can make eight-plus starts, he’s a strong play given his playmaking ability and could absolutely smash his ADP. It’s only a matter of time before we see the athletic rookie under center and someone who took advantage sees $1,0001 in their Underdog balance.
Round 5 represents the lowest ADP for Odell Beckham since his rookie season. Fantasy players should have some trepidation, but the risk is baked in when he is drafted at this part of the draft. The talent and athleticism and ability to absolutely dominate a game are still there. He is the clear cut No. 1 target in Cleveland and could be lethal in their play action passing game. A vintage OBJ season is in play for 2021.
Sony Michel’s ADP has risen steadily since he was traded to the Rams, but there’s no world in which he should still be selected over 80 spots on average after Darrell Henderson. The Rams have never trusted Henderson in a lead back role, and Michel has been better than people think. Even if they split work relatively evenly, you can take advantage of what is shaping up to be one of the year’s biggest value plays if his ADP continues to rest in the double digit rounds.
While many stacks have seen their ADP soar in recent weeks, the premium Eagles pairing is going in the other direction (QB11 and WR36). Fade the noise. There’s no denying Jalen Hurts’ accuracy issues last year, but he flashed the ingredients of a fantasy superstar last year. Devonta Smith is a substantial upgrade to Philadelphia’s barren wide receiver room. He’ll also give Hurts a reliable target he never had last year, and bump the remaining Eagles weapons into more favourable roles.
At QB14 in ADP, Joe Burrow’s injury risk is fully baked in being drafted behind less mobile quarterbacks Tom Brady and Mathew Stafford, who project to throw less often. With no meaningful WR4 or tight end to draw targets from the WRs, Tee Higgins could replicate or improve upon his 20.2-percent (No. 36 among qualified wide receivers) Target Share and parlay this into 120-140 targets. Given the breakout potential of second year WRs, Higgins is the preferred stacking partner in Cincinnati.
